Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. France moves to protect the Red Sea.

• IRAN. Another seven-day ultimatum as mortgage rates breach 7%.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu’s insouciance shapes the election.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Hybrid warnings should be put in the past tense.

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Xi and Trump play nice at Taiwan’s expense.

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SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. C’est up to you

France moves to protect the Red Sea.

Emmanuel Macron said he would send troops to Yanbu as the Houthis claimed strikes on the port’s oil terminal and the capital, Riyadh. Saudi Arabia’s grand mufti told border guards to be ready to “be sacrificed in seeking Allah’s pleasure.”

INTELLIGENCE. With both the Houthis and the Saudis claiming divine authority, it’s hard to see the war ending quickly. Macron hasn’t invoked the supreme being, but may yet if this becomes another Suez debacle. Still, with the US threatening diesel, Russia fighting Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia diverting cargoes to Asia via Hormuz, the move may be Europe’s only choice before winter. Greece is already on the ground, claiming to have intercepted the Houthi missile.

FOR BUSINESS. France’s ground presence, in addition to Greece’s, may drag others from the EU’s Red Sea Aspides mission and the US’s Prosperity Guardian. China and India, which also operate independent patrols, including from the multiple bases in nearby Djibouti, may be pushed to increase their support. Saudi Arabia has held consultations with Pakistan and Turkey under its new defence pact. Iran has begun to distance itself from the Houthis’ activities.

IRAN. Dance of the seven veiled warnings

Another seven-day ultimatum as mortgage rates breach 7%.

Brent prices whipsawed between $104 and $107 amid reports of a “phased deal” to be agreed within seven days. US 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.12% as 30-year Treasury yields hit a 19-year high. Iran said it was up to the US to end the war.

INTELLIGENCE. With as many hints of an imminent deal as declarations of victory in

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Debt and diesel rattle the market.

• CHINA. Trump looks poised to extend and pretend.

• IRAN. More Republicans urge a pre-midterms deal.

• CUBA. Another regime change ploy threatens to backfire.

• ETHIOPIA. The risk of a new civil war tests the premier.

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UNITED STATES. Exhausted

Debt and diesel rattle the market.

Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds hit 5.13%, with 5-year yields above 5%, for the first time since 2007. Energy executives hit back at a proposed 90-day diesel export ban, which Morgan Stanley said would only raise domestic gasoline prices.

INTELLIGENCE. Markets are reacting to more than just diesel or a purchasing managers' index that signals not only strong employment, and thus higher rates, but supply chain bottlenecks, which an export ban would only exacerbate. The AI buildout, which has warped the current account via demand for electronics and electricity, is now warping capital, with AI firms now issuing 40% of investment-grade debt, crowding out even Scott “The House” Bessent.

FOR BUSINESS. Beyond mulling a diesel ban this week, Donald Trump has also said he may appoint an AI czar. That person is thought to be Treasury Secretary Bessent, rather than an industry figure like ex-adviser David Sacks. Insofar as AI’s role in finance (tech is now a debt play; Nvidia is now a bank; compute is now an asset class), this makes sense, but per his mixed record on Treasury buybacks and the yen, it could merely exacerbate growing imbalances.

CHINA. Swept under the red carpet

Trump looks poised to extend and pretend.

The US extended its trade truce with China to 10 January as Xi Jinping received a red-carpet welcome from Donald Trump at Joint Base Andrews. "China and the US should be partners, not rivals," Xi wrote in an embassy statement.

INTELLIGENCE. Only two other leaders have received a president’s airport welcome

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. A speech to several audiences gets lost in translation.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. In his final weeks, few want to help Netanyahu.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Cash flow says more than news flow.

• BRITAIN. Burnham faces the decoloniser-in-chief.

• VENEZUELA. Rodriguez visits Trump as trouble stirs at home.

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IRAN. Jaw-jaw and war-war

A speech to several audiences gets lost in translation.

Donald Trump told the UN he faced a choice between a deal, after the midterms, or to "annihilate the Islamic Republic". US and Iranian officials held three hours of indirect talks on the sidelines of the general assembly. Oil briefly fell to $97.

INTELLIGENCE. Without a decision on next steps, Trump has reverted to jawboning the market. Yet the multiple and inconsistent messages in his 37-minute speech and beyond cannot calm investors, reassure voters, pressure allies, and coerce the Iranians forever. Trump may instinctively want to buy time, but his dilemma will only get worse as he gets closer to the midterms. A CNN/SSRS poll Tuesday suggests 64% of Americans believe the US is losing in Iran.

FOR BUSINESS. There’s a chance of an October surprise, but unless that’s to be a nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain (hinted at again during a summit of Arab leaders), a lot will need to go right for Trump. Saudi Arabia is reportedly close to restoring East-West pipeline flows, but these remain at the mercy of the Houthis, which shot down a second Saudi F-15. A diesel export ban would help local business, but lead to a global recession. Strikes continue in Hormuz.

ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Last month vs last year

In his final weeks, few want to help Netanyahu.

Benjamin Netanyahu said he would defend Israel at the UN on Thursday as he hit back at Zohran Mamdani, who again accused the prime minister of “genocide”. The Palestinian Authority’s Mahmoud Abbas will speak by video Thursday.

INTELLIGENCE. Last year's UN leaders' week saw ten Western countries, including

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Interests trump values amid an energy crisis.

• IRAN. Sabres are rattled as Pezeshkian heads to New York.

• PAKISTAN. Munir gets pulled in too many directions.

• UNITED STATES. Stakes rise in the attention economy.

• UNITED NATIONS. Multilateralists of the world unite.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Cards on the table

Interests trump values amid an energy crisis.

Emmanuel Macron said he had "very good" talks with Donald Trump about an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine. Trump decried damage to Russia’s refineries and said he was working on a "massive" deal to buy Belarussian potash.

INTELLIGENCE. Macron and Trump may differ in their approach to the war, but they share an interest in lower energy prices. That this may end up rewarding the energy seller seems beside the point. Not only are fuel shortages mounting but, for Europe, have become another populist wedge, with the Kremlin suggesting it may work with Alternative für Deutschland to restore natural gas supplies. As for Trump, he is also using his potash deal as a way to punish Canada.

FOR BUSINESS. Russia has a diesel export ban. Belarus is subject to European sanctions (extended too for Russia). While both Moscow and Minsk may want the extra revenue, acting aloof may be a winning strategy ahead of the midterms. Trade is booming with Asia. Vladimir Putin is reportedly planning to attend China’s APEC summit but skip Trump’s G20, despite being invited to both. The nationalisation of Nestle Russia suggests investment is not a priority.

IRAN. Fight and flight

Sabres are rattled as Pezeshkian heads to New York.

Scott Bessent said Iranian airlines would be denied fuel on pain of secondary sanctions as Masoud Pezeshkian flew to New York on a state-registered A340. Another 400,000 barrels were released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

INTELLIGENCE. The sanctions will come into effect on Wednesday, by which point

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. The region braces for all-out war or peace or both.

• SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. Trump sits out the Houthi conflict for now.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin isn’t letting anyone challenge his rule.

• GERMANY. Merz vows to remain, even if his party is over.

• GREENLAND. Washington agrees to a face-saving pseudo-deal.

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IRAN. TACO, FAFO or FUBAR

The region braces for all-out war or peace or both.

Donald Trump threatened to "wipe Iran out" Sunday after leaving Camp David, though also suggested he was open to meeting Masoud Pezeshkian in New York. Qatar said it was exchanging messages. Iran put its military on high alert.

INTELLIGENCE. An early departure from Camp David, used sparingly in Trump’s second term, would normally portend a major military event. Yet Trump seems to have done so to spend time with two pro golfers and an OnlyFans model at his club in Potomac Falls. Yet even if Trump seems unserious, a State Department alert, warning Americans to avoid the Middle East, seems ominous. Crude futures are steady, but diesel prices hit an average of $6.50 per gallon.

FOR BUSINESS. Washington’s mixed messages continue to confuse markets. CENTCOM claims Hormuz oil transits are at a six-month high, but commercial data is mixed. Tehran is likewise indicating it’s open to a deal, but only on terms Trump is sure to refuse. The most reasonable expectation is that the holding patterns will continue until at least the midterms. Just as Trump can’t afford to look weak via de-escalation, he can unlikely afford a military surge.

SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. A day late and a petrodollar short

Trump sits out the Houthi conflict for now.

The Houthis claimed an attack on Riyadh as smoke was seen near main airport. The militia earlier hit an Italian jet in Ta’if. CNN said the US planned to join retaliatory strikes. The New York Times said Trump decided Sunday to call it off.

INTELLIGENCE. CNN has been banned from the White House. Trump calls the NYT

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Hello,

In this edition of Week Signals:

• IN REVIEW. Warnings for humanity, democracy and the dollar; how to stage a coup.

• UP AHEAD. Elections in Germany and Morocco; summits in the North Atlantic.

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The Week in Review: Murder they wrote

The week began with Saudi Arabia shutting its pipeline to Yanbu. It ended with Emmanuel Macron proposing a G7 summit to release another tranche of strategic fuel supplies. Seven weeks out to the US midterms and the start of the northern winter, a crisis in the Middle East and fears in the bond market show few signs of receding. To see how this might end, brush up on your history of the 1970s (spoiler: it gets worse before it gets better).

Yet we’re in the year 2026, and we also have AI, and the week was additionally notable for warnings from Silicon Valley that the robots could kill us all. Already, this has largely been dismissed as founder hyperbole ahead of a slew of IPOs. We are uncomfortable to be in agreement with Donald Trump on this point. Fear is the only motivator more powerful than greed. And like many other Californian cults, the “rationalist community”, which has driven much of the industry, is obsessed with eschatology (plus, some claim, with group sex too). If AI is going to destroy anything, it’ll be by turning the entire internet into LinkedIn: ugly, unusable, and full of slop. Less Terminator than terminal decline.

The biblical horsemen – conquest, war, famine and death – were the Book of Revelation’s symbols of the apocalypse. Today’s riders – debt, demographics, climate change and nuclear weapons – hardly need a fifth. Yet humans need things to worry about, and the more exotic, and the more unfalsifiable, the better.

But we don’t want to dwell on murder by machine so much as two other claims that this week attracted comparatively fewer headlines but could be more consequential. The first was Trump’s claim that the Democrats tried to kill him in Butler, Pennsylvania. The second were claims that by refusing to help the Saudis on Yemen and the Red Sea, Trump may have killed the petrodollar system (or at least put the final nail in its coffin).

Both of these deserve closer scrutiny. And as for those on AI, just ask yourself, like Cicero, cui bono? And then watch this video.

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• SAUDI ARABIA. CHINA. Riyadh looks to solutions through Beijing.

• IRAN. UNITED STATES. Trump faces a decision, if Tehran lets him.

• POLAND. GERMANY. The Pentagon mulls a shift to the east.

• JAPAN. Interest rates rise as SoftBank raises.

• MYANMAR. Naypyidaw uses hostage diplomacy to win favour.

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SAUDI ARABIA. CHINA. Seeing red

Riyadh looks to solutions through Beijing.

China had asked Iran to rein in the Houthis at Saudi Arabia’s behest, Reuters said Thursday, as reports emerged that Riyadh had used a Chinese ballistic missile in Yemen. China had “significantly” upgraded its base in Djibouti, CSIS said.

INTELLIGENCE. The media has focused on Thursday’s approval for the $24 billion sale of 48 US F-35 fighters to Riyadh, yet deliveries, long in the works, may take until 2030. And as the Pentagon refuses to use its own jets in helping fight the Houthis, the Saudis will need to look to others before the map is entirely redrawn. Beijing, which has been quietly aiding Tehran and yesterday vetoed a UN sanctions monitoring mandate, may be Riyadh’s best option.

FOR BUSINESS. Besides entreaties to Tehran, Beijing may have been instrumental in Islamabad’s seeming about-turn on whether to invoke its defence pact over Yemen, with Pakistan’s defence minister Wednesday telling local media that "the time had come" to "fulfil our duty", without elaborating how. Yet there is also pressure on Riyadh to yield, with the Houthis, leading a population bigger than Saudi Arabia’s, increasingly seen as Yemen’s de facto rulers.

IRAN. UNITED STATES. Beside the turning point

Trump faces a decision, if Tehran lets him.

Oil fell to $103 after Masoud Pezeshkian was given a visa to visit the UN next week and Donald Trump said “a major turning point in the war” was approaching, with “a big decision coming up”. Iran’s president is due to speak Wednesday.

INTELLIGENCE. Pezeshkian attended the UN General Assembly last September.

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. In the rate hike’s wake, one number counts.

• CANADA. EUROPE. The EU gets flexible on geometry.

• CHINA. Health rumours plague summit preparations.

• INDIA. PAKISTAN. A naval incident raises old ghosts.

• LIBYA. Warring factions just can’t help themselves.

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UNITED STATES. Gaslighting

In the rate hike’s wake, one number counts.

The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously agreed to raise rates by 25 basis points, though Chair Kevin Warsh said the move “cannot affect any individual price, whether it be oil prices”. Diesel hit a record average of $6.31 per gallon.

INTELLIGENCE. Donald Trump may still be calling for rate cuts (to “1% or less”), but even though high oil is a supply-side phenomenon (more set by a chairman in Iran), no central bank can afford to have this fuel wider inflation. And judging from the reaction in yields, markets think that rates are still too low. Diesel, however, may be more important than credit at this point in the cycle, with its impact yet to be felt through the price of transported goods and farming.

FOR BUSINESS. Diesel export bans, broached by Senator John Thune (of farm state South Dakota), may now be in prospect. And while this will just push the crisis elsewhere (in Germany, diesel is now €2.40 a litre, or $10 a gallon), it could stem Trump’s midterm losses. In the meantime, US troops are reportedly crewing tankers for the first time since World War II, even if claims that 18 million barrels subsequently left Hormuz yesterday are yet to be believed.

CANADA. EUROPE. Tiers for fears

The EU gets flexible on geometry.

Ursula von der Leyen said Canada would be the EU’s first “associate member” as Mark Carney visited Strasbourg. Trump threatened “serious tariffs” at the “hostile act”. Canada applied to join the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force military pact.

INTELLIGENCE. That Carney seeks closer ties with Europe is no surprise. But

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. YEMEN. Fresh attacks choke off supply.

• ISRAEL. Washington looks to sell a gun for hire.

• KOSOVO. SERBIA. More elections, more trials.

• GERMANY. Merz faces a challenge from within.

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. The future begins in the past.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses, and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

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IRAN. YEMEN. Pain in the bottleneck

Fresh attacks choke off supply.

Yemen’s Houthis denied they had attacked Mecca amid separate reports they had downed a Saudi F-15 and mined the Bab-el-Mandeb. The US said oil would resume delivery at Yanbu in days, but contracts were cancelled until November.

INTELLIGENCE. Attacks on Mecca may be bogus, but the damage to Yanbu, the Red Sea terminus of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, seems real, and industry analysts expect flows to only resume in 4-6 weeks, assuming there’s no further damage. Flows in Hormuz could resume sooner, amid reports of daytime military escorts, but potshots at ships continue such that they’ll unlikely make up for the Red Sea holdup in the interim. Riyadh has vowed to hit back.

FOR BUSINESS. Physical cargoes have reached $130 in Europe. Russian grades are trading at a premium to Brent. The Saudis (and Americans) look impotent as Iran’s foreign minister travels to Beijing for his second visit since the war began. Every president vows no more forever wars in the Middle East, but there are no good options to ending it that would be acceptable to the US public. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it has cost $38 billion so far.

ISRAEL. Last resort

Washington looks to sell a gun for hire.

The US was planning to sell Israel $2.8 billion worth of munitions, the Washington Post said, including 20,000 Mark 84 bombs. The head of the IDF met his Saudi counterpart last week during US-run talks at a German ski resort, Axios said.

INTELLIGENCE. Besides Israel and the US, the only other user of Mark 84s, an

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. The bond market augurs regime change.

• IRAN. Trump wants to talk, but Tehran won’t listen.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Crunch time arrives for sanctions.

• SWEDEN. Voters take a chance on the moderates.

• INDONESIA. Prabowo tries to right the ship of state.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses, and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

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UNITED STATES. The 5% club

The bond market augurs regime change.

US 10-year yields hit a 19-year high of 5.02% Tuesday as markets reacted to rising oil prices, falling AI stocks, and rate-hike expectations. Donald Trump likened worries about AI to the “global warming scam” and “Russia, Russia, Russia”.

INTELLIGENCE. After failing to impress voters with promises of a $5,000 midterms “dividend”, things are looking harder for the Republican Party in November. And amid cynicism over the AI industry’s seeming about-face on regulation, markets look worried as well. Trump will hope the Fed doesn’t hike tomorrow, but if it holds, the outcry from bondholders could be even worse, pushing longer-dated yields (and real-world borrowing costs) even higher.

FOR BUSINESS. Markets are looking for a monetary regime change (from dovish to hawkish) if not a political one, but all transitions are messy, especially if resisted by those in charge. Trump and his Treasury Secretary, Scott “the House” Bessent, continue to say the economy is golden, at the foothills of an AI boom, but sticky inflation and chronic unprofitability among the modelmakers suggest otherwise. The saving grace is that few big markets are much better.

IRAN. It takes two to TACO

Trump wants to talk, but Tehran won’t listen.

Oil extended its rise as Hormuz shipping transits fell and the Houthis continued to advance across Yemen. Trump said the “failing nation of Iran” wanted a deal, “the concept of which we are open to.” Tehran denied it had made any outreach.

INTELLIGENCE. In a string of social media messages, mostly about AI, but also

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. With Hormuz at an impasse, oil finds its level.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump blames Kyiv as Moscow ups the threats.

• BRITAIN. Secessionist politics stumbles into a bigger fight.

• BRICS. Modi makes the best of a difficult summit.

• ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. OpenAI shelves its IPO over safety.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses, and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

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IRAN. Flowing in the wind

With Hormuz at an impasse, oil finds its level.

Brent climbed back above $108 after Oman said talks with Iran on Hormuz were postponed, reportedly at Saudi Arabia’s bidding, and Donald Trump said the US might “stay and keep the oil”. The Saudi East-West pipeline was shut for repairs.

INTELLIGENCE. After its key outlet for 4% of global supplies was closed after attacks, Riyadh can be forgiven for not wishing to engage with Tehran. Yet unless the US comes to its rescue, Saudi Arabia will need to talk with Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen, which now effectively control the southern end of the Red Sea. Trump says the Houthis have asked him not to intervene and “everything’s going to work out fine”. He may as well be taking orders from Khamenei.

FOR BUSINESS. Gulf crude may soon flow again on a deal with Iran and the Houthis, but it won’t be on US terms, or at prices likely to give Trump midterms relief. Refined products are meanwhile at record highs, with US diesel at $6.20 on average ahead of the northern harvest. Reports of Trump using the Defense Production Act to lift refining may be too late for the political and economic crunch. Utilisation rates are at 98%. Many refineries are due for maintenance.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. One-track mind

Trump blames Kyiv as Moscow ups the threats.

Trump said Ukraine “has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia”, as the shortage “isn’t done by the Middle East.” Russia hit a passenger train near Poland on a line that minutes earlier had been used by Boris Johnson and Carl Bildt.

INTELLIGENCE. Johnson, Bildt and ex-CIA chief David Petraeus were among the

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Hello,

In this edition of Week Signals:

• IN REVIEW. 9/11, the War on Terror, the peak of US power, and the emergence of surveillance capitalism.

• UP AHEAD. Elections in Sweden, Okinawa, and Russia; rates in America; and speeches in Strasbourg.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

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The Week in Review: Back to where it all began

The week began with US talks in Moscow and Kyiv. It ended with Yemen’s Houthi militia taking full control of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. It was also the 25^th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and a time of wide reflection on what had happened in the intervening years to US power and politics, abroad and at home.

Plenty has already been written about it, whether as personal reflections or strategic theses. There is only so much one can add. But this week, I’ve asked Oscar Martin to again hold the pen and provide a review of what’s changed and what hasn’t as we try to situate this singular event – occurring at the height of US hegemony – into the wider story of a changing world order where that hegemony is not only being contested, but arguably abdicated.

It’s also worth a review, considering that in many ways we’re back to where it all started. Yemen – prominent in the news this week – was where al-Qaeda blew up the USS Cole on 12 October 2000, killing 19, including two of the attackers. Saudi Arabia, home to 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers, has also been in the news as it loses easy access to the southern end of the Red Sea.

Today, the US Navy, despite having a base in nearby Djibouti, is no longer in theatre. Donald Trump twice this week refused to fight the Houthis on Riyadh’s behalf, per Axios. It is unclear whether Turkey or Pakistan will either. Of all the things Trump is and isn’t, he’s certainly no George W Bush.

The other players have also changed since 9/11. Today, Saudi Arabia is an increasingly liberal place. Washington’s bogeyman is in the form of Iran’s Shia republic and its mainly Shia proxy forces, not the Sunni extremists of al-Qaeda and their Wahhabi sympathisers. Afghanistan may still be ruled by the Taliban, but it’s no haven for terrorists (even if Pakistan might disagree). NATO is still in a formal alliance with the US, but its publics are hardly likely to again rally to a country whose president questions their sovereignty. And of course, the American public is far less sure of itself.

While 9/11 was the defining geopolitical event for the Millennials and the fall of the Berlin Wall for Gen X, for much of Gen Z, it’s been the war in Gaza, with the West seen as the bad guys. They’re less likely to be convinced of the same old early-2000s certitudes. And when the 50^th anniversary of 9/11 rolls around, I’m sure it’ll be remembered very differently than how it’s remembered today. History is written by the victors. But has anyone been victorious in the aftermath of 9/11?

Oscar begins:

On the 25^th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, New York is being led by its first Muslim mayor, Zohran Mamdani, who attended the anniversary ceremony at Ground Zero alongside families of the victims.

It would have been hard to imagine a Muslim ever leading New York in the atmosphere that followed the 9/11 attacks. Anti-Muslim hate crimes increased from 28 instances in 2000 to 481 in 2001, as an overwhelmingly negative sentiment against Muslim communities across the West grew in the aftermath.

Yet today, there are now Muslim members of Congress, thousands of mosques across all 50 states, and a Muslim mayor governing the city that suffered the worst of the attacks. And though more than 100,000 people signed a petition asking Mamdani to stay away from the anniversary ceremonies – with former mayor Rudy Giuliani publicly arguing that his Muslim faith made his attendance inappropriate – Mamdani enjoys a 56% approval rating in his city.

This contrast in New Yorkers’ attitudes shows the complicated legacy of 9/11 that continues to this day. It is also a legacy that extends well beyond the specificities of New York politics and into global affairs.

The US invaded Afghanistan less than a month after 9/11 to destroy al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban government that hosted it. In 2003, Iraq fell even though Saddam Hussein’s government had no role in the attacks.

What began as a campaign against the single organisation responsible for 9/11 grew into a much wider intervention in the Middle East. It is estimated that the post-9/11 wars cost the US more than $8 trillion through to 2021. Almost a million were killed directly by war violence across the conflicts, while tens of millions of people were displaced.

Despite the widespread destruction, in Afghanistan, the US withdrew, and the Taliban returned to power. The invasion of Iraq removed Saddam Hussein, but the disorder that followed also contributed to the conditions in which Islamic State eventually emerged. The legacy of these wars continues in the Middle East today, with Iran showing a repeated pattern of forever wars in the Middle East, when the US’s major involvement was sparked on 9/11.

Washington’s severe response was partly due to the massive intelligence failure that allowed 9/11 to occur. The 9/11 Commission found that the attacks reflected failures of “imagination, policy, capabilities, and management”. American agencies had collected important information about al-Qaeda and some of the future hijackers before September 2001, but the separate threads of intelligence were not combined to understand the depth of the threat.

The US created the Director of National Intelligence and the National Counterterrorism Center, which was given responsibility for integrating terrorism intelligence across government. The emphasis shifted towards sharing information between agencies that had previously guarded it closely. This was one of the clearest shifts that arose out of the attacks and has fundamentally shifted the nature of intelligence practices across the West.

This shift has had far-reaching consequences beyond the US intelligence infrastructure. By changing the way intelligence was gathered and shared, it led to a revolution in information processing just as the digital revolution was accelerating. Today, a major political issue across the US and allied nations is the rise of surveillance and automated intelligence technologies. The most significant player in this space that arose directly from 9/11 is Palantir.

Palantir was founded in 2003 and began building software for the US intelligence community to support counterterrorism investigations. It developed methods and technologies that help intelligence analysts find terrorist networks across large amounts of information. The idea attracted early backing from the CIA, and Palantir later expanded into defence, government and commercial work globally. Today, it is one of the most prominent companies in defence technology and artificial intelligence.

The consequence of the investment in conflicts across the Middle East, meanwhile, led to a major geopolitical realignment, which is still ongoing today. Three months after 9/11, China joined the World Trade Organization. Over the following 25 years, it has become the world’s second-largest economy and developed into the main long-term strategic competitor of the US.

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. The Houthis capture Bab-el-Mandeb.

• ISRAEL. UAE. An un-alliance provokes the region.

• CHINA. INDIA. Xi visits Delhi to play statesman.

• IRELAND. Trump visits Doonbeg to play golf.

• FRANCE. Le Pen keeps her fellow travellers at a distance.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses, and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

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SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. Perim capita

The Houthis capture Bab-el-Mandeb.

Brent futures spiked above $108 as Yemen’s Houthi rebels confirmed control of the port of Mokha and allegedly took the island of Perim in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Donald Trump declined Saudi Arabia’s request for assistance, Axios said.

INTELLIGENCE. Neither the jump in crude, nor reported strikes along the main Saudi pipeline to Yanbu, seem to have been enough to sway US involvement. Having already TACOed to the Houthis last year, Trump will see this as a problem for Riyadh’s new allies in Ankara and Islamabad to solve. Yet his inaction also reflects depleted US munitions, and the increasingly dire situation in Hormuz. Riyadh may need to give the Houthis what they ask for.

FOR BUSINESS. The Houthis are an Iranian ally, but have longstanding aims, namely diplomatic recognition and an end to Saudi backing for the rump regime in Aden. Their capture of the coast may have been aided by Iran, but has been brewing for years. Their precursor, the Kingdom of Yemen, predates the modern Saudi state. The Zaydi Imams before that ruled from the ninth century. The Houthis will likely welcome ships back to the Red Sea, but for a price.

ISRAEL. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. Abraham-fisted

An un-alliance provokes the region.

Algeria cut ties with the UAE Thursday, citing “provocative or hostile” actions. Israel caused a 4.1-magnitude earthquake after blowing up Hezbollah tunnels in southern Lebanon. Morocco and Israel denied culpability in Spain’s Ceuta crisis.

INTELLIGENCE. Partners under Jared Kushner’s Abraham Accords, Israel and the

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Trump bets a bounced cheque for a poll bounce.

• IRAN. Poleaxed on water, the Pentagon eyes Pickaxe on land.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Battle lines move into Moldova.

• COLOMBIA. ECUADOR. Rubio tours the neo-colonies.

• BRAZIL. In the campaign’s final weeks, everyone gets involved.

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UNITED STATES. Not buying it

Trump bets a bounced cheque for a poll bounce.

Donald Trump said he would pay every American adult $5,000 if Republicans won the midterms. The Treasury said it would buy up to $6 billion in 10 and 20-year bonds Thursday, triple the size of its last buyback, as 10-year yields hit 4.8%.

INTELLIGENCE. Judging from the cancelled deliveries of a $5,000 DOGE dividend, or a $2,000 tariff refund, neither markets nor voters should hold their breath over Trump’s latest gambit, which would cost an estimated 4% of GDP at a time when federal debt is already, for the first time since World War II, higher than the economy’s output. Plus, retaining control of both houses would be hard for any incumbent party, let alone one whose leader now polls at just 33%.

FOR BUSINESS. Markets should be more worried about Scott Bessent’s buybacks, which, besides boiling the ocean, indicate zero appetite for fiscal repair as the war in Iran and runaway social security spending outpace any potential gains from higher income tax receipts. Seen against Norway’s decision to reduce its US bond exposure (and the Netherlands’ call to repatriate its gold), the once-fringe “debasement trade” now seems both real and mainstream.

IRAN. Cute as a nuclear button

Poleaxed on water, the Pentagon eyes Pickaxe on land.

Trump warned Iran “not to get cute” over reported activity at Pickaxe Mountain, an alleged nuclear site. Iran claimed to have attacked 10 ships as its Houthi allies claimed to have seized the Yemeni city of Mokha, on the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.

INTELLIGENCE. At the Republican convention in Dallas, Trump signalled both

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Ships and barrels go underwater.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin phones Trump as Kyiv seeks missiles.

• SERBIA. The president puts his survival over Europe.

• CANADA. New goods are added amid a trade war impasse.

• JAPAN. Bond-trading Bessent meets his matcha.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses, and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

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IRAN. Empty tankers

Ships and barrels go underwater.

Brent neared $100 overnight as Iran claimed to have struck a US base in Jordan and two US ships after five of its crude carriers were destroyed. The US said it released 1.2 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week.

INTELLIGENCE. The week’s release was less than forecast, suggesting it may be getting harder to extract what remains at the bottom of the SPR’s caverns. Markets are beginning to focus on stocks, not flow, as observed Hormuz traffic remains below US claims and tit-for-tat strikes are escalating in size and target. While Iran is undoubtedly lying about the war’s damage to the US military, the US is potentially lying about the war’s damage to the global economy.

FOR BUSINESS. The other metric to watch is US Patriot interceptor stocks, more of which were observed being used in defending Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base from Iranian missiles. Their availability will determine, as much as fuel prices and poll numbers, Donald Trump’s ability to continue the war at its present pace, both leading into and beyond the midterms. Arms makers have been contracted to produce more, but their timelines will lag those of the conflict.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Patriot games

Putin phones Trump as Kyiv seeks missiles.

Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump he wanted an end to the conflict as soon as possible and had “no aggressive plans whatsoever towards Europe.” Ukraine said it was contracting around 1,000 Patriot interceptors from its Western allies.

INTELLIGENCE. Five were killed after Russia hit Kyiv Tuesday and hybrid threats

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Hello from Sydney,

Yesterday, Michael and I hosted our latest private roundtable with paid subscribers, looking at some of the geopolitical developments we think matter most as we head into the second half of September.

We started with Iran and discussed whether Tehran is trying to outlast the Trump administration politically, what nearly $100 oil and increasingly stretched fuel reserves could mean as the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter, and why the Red Sea may remain unstable even if the immediate crisis around Hormuz eventually eases.

From there, we turned to Ukraine and Russia — including the latest flurry of American shuttle diplomacy in Moscow and Kyiv, the unusual visit by the CIA Director to Russia — the first reported visit since 2021 — and whether any of it materially changes a war that still, for all intents and purposes, looks like a long contest of attrition.

We also looked at the sharp rise of the populist right across Europe, particularly the AfD’s latest gains in Germany and what they might — and might not — tell us about the political direction of Germany, France and Europe more broadly.

Finally, we spent some time on the changing balance of power in the Middle East. More specifically, we discussed the increasingly tense and structural rivalry between Israel and Turkey, the new defence relationships forming around them, and how the US, China and Russia are responding to these emerging configurations.

The recording and full transcript are below for paid subscribers.

If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can upgrade to access the full discussion, as well as every Daily Dispatch and Week Signals essay and invitations to our monthly private roundtables.

Upgrade your subscription

Best wishes,

Damien

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. The Bab-el-Mandeb heats up again.

• ISRAEL. BRITAIN. A dispute goes far beyond the West Bank.

• GREENLAND. Amid US bullying, Nuuk scores an EU deal.

• CANADA. As new tariffs take effect, so do new threats.

• THE PHILIPPINES. The war between the ruling dynasts escalates.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses, and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

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YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Question and Ansar

The Bab-el-Mandeb heats up again.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels hit Saudi Aramco’s refinery at Jizan again after the Iran-backed militia blamed Riyadh for a strike on a prison, killing seven. Yemen’s Saudi-backed government said it would retake Sana’a as the Houthis moved south.

INTELLIGENCE. With Tehran distracted and the ink still wet on a security pact with Ankara and Islamabad, Riyadh may see the time as ripe for it and its proxy in Aden to push back on the Houthis, who have menaced Red Sea shipping for years. Yet as Hormuz remains largely closed and US diesel prices approach a $6 per gallon average, the risks are high. And the Houthis’ move to conquer more of the southwest, closer to Bab-el-Mandeb, could boost their leverage.

FOR BUSINESS. Unlike (arguably) Iran for Hormuz, the Houthis don’t actually control the Bab-el-Mandeb strait – the Red Sea’s southern chokepoint. But if they can move south from their port of Hodeidah, and split government forces in two, they may be able to get more from the Saudis, ranging from higher protection fees (as paid before the current outbreak of fighting) to diplomatic recognition, risking a further split with the UAE, a silent partner in the conflict.

ISRAEL. BRITAIN. From the river to the Scotia Sea

A dispute goes far beyond the West Bank.

The UK was expected to ban goods from Israeli settlements in the West Bank Tuesday, provoking Israel’s finance minister to call for the British ambassador’s expulsion and the security minister to call for sanctions on the Falklands.

INTELLIGENCE. A strong bilateral response was expected, and it will be of no

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A series of trilaterals is just what Putin wants.

• GERMANY. The AfD comes short of a majority in Saxony-Anhalt.

• IRAN. Tehran expands its theatre of maritime attacks.

• ISRAEL. TURKEY. Tensions rise between erstwhile US allies.

• ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. Claims of AGI land within the IPO window.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses, and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Tourist trap

A series of trilaterals is just what Putin wants.

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Kyiv Sunday, a day after meetings in Moscow. Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine was ready for trilateral talks with the US and Russia. The Kremlin said it was ready for a trilateral with the US and China.

INTELLIGENCE. Whatever the format, more talks are less likely to bring an end to war than an extension of Washington’s forbearance. And with Witkoff at least, on his eighth visit to Moscow but his first to Kyiv, US patience has been generous, despite Russia’s aid to Iran and threats to NATO. Vladimir Putin’s investment chief, Kirill Dmitriev, met Witkoff and Kushner at the airport. Kushner would later present to Kyiv that it was all just like a business deal.

FOR BUSINESS. Soon after Kushner finished validating Putin’s “aspirations”, strikes resumed on Odesa, and Russia’s foreign minister accused Germany of starting “a real war” by attributing last month’s Leipzig drone incident to Moscow. US negotiators may see it all just “incredible stories and memories” but to NATO allies, Russia’s advances in Ukraine, and threats beyond, are existential. If another meeting is to be held, Europe will demand it’s a quadrilateral.

GERMANY. Agro-Saxons

The AfD comes short of a majority in Saxony-Anhalt.

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland won 39 of 83 seats in the state assembly of Saxony-Anhalt Sunday, on 43.8% of the vote. State party leader Ulrich Siegmund described Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz as his best campaigner.

INTELLIGENCE. Merz’s Christian Democrats, which previously led a grand coalition

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Hello,

In this edition of Week Signals:

• IN REVIEW. Shifting doctrine, changing calculus, paths to an exit, and extraordinary consequences.

• UP AHEAD. Saxony-Anhalt, von der Leyen, Carney, Macron, and the BRICS.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

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The Week in Review: Pickaxe to grind

The week began with strikes on Larak Island, followed by an escalation that would see missile attacks on a range of US bases. Toward the end of the week, JD Vance would deny there’s a war. Something about “no active shooting” (except for the wedding - “things happen”, the vice president said).

Yesterday, Donald Trump continued the nothing-to-see-here theme. The war was “small potatoes”. His treasury secretary opined that oil might go down to $40. Someone should tell the IRGC, which has begun to shift its military doctrine to allow for pre-emptive strikes.

This week, I’ve also been speaking with a number of businesses about where I see the war going. As things stand, my base case is that Iran retains what’s referred to as “escalation dominance” and, as such, the war will only conclude when Iran is good and ready. And per what Iran has said on the matter, that’s unlikely to be until after the 2026 midterms, if not the 2028 presidential election. This would allow Tehran to claim “regime change” in the US, insofar as a GOP wipeout this November, or in two years hence, leads to either Trump’s impeachment or to his retirement. It would also follow the playbook of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, which only ended on the morning of Ronald Reagan’s inauguration on 20 January 1981.

Two months, let alone two years, is a long time for the global economy to continue to absorb high oil prices, irrespective of how much is actually getting out of Hormuz. But it’s a blink in the eye of Persian civilisation. More to the point, it’s a fraction of the time Iran spent fighting Iraq in the 1980s, or indeed has spent largely isolated from international markets. Things might be tough for Iran’s citizens, and the rial worthless in foreign currency terms, but the regime has survived worse than Operation Economic Outcast.

I’d give this base case a ~70% probability. But that leaves another ~30% for two other plausible scenarios.

The first of these is the theme markets have been trading on for the last six months: the TACO. And this is what essentially happened when, at the Palace of Versailles of all places, Trump signed the so-called Islamabad Memorandum on 17 June.

It would probably be great for markets if he did this again, but the longer things drag out, the less likely he’ll be prepared to politically re-take the loss, and the less likely Iran will be to let him.

From Trump’s perspective, there are the sunk costs, fallacious or not. And from Iran’s perspective, if their strategy has essentially been rope-a-dope since day 1 – using up your enemy’s missile interceptors, petroleum reserves and political capital – then why would they let him declare a draw just before he hits the mat?

After all, it’s not as if Iran will suffer greater punishment if it waits until after the midterms (or 2028). China may not be pleased, but they have reserves, and Russia. Hormuz may be a diminishing asset insofar as alternative energy channels, sources and products will come to compete with it, but that’s a beyond-2028 proposition anyway, and one well beyond the current political and economic cycle.

I give the TACO a rough probability of ~25%.

And then that leaves the final ~5% of plausible futures (note, I don’t include a US victory as plausible, no matter how many times the White House declares one, and similarly, I don’t think a ground invasion is plausible, considering the state of the US military). And that third option was the end point of what we wrote on 22 August: a final solution when all others are exhausted. The only way to win a war from the air without boots on the ground: a nuclear attack.

There may only be a small chance of a US or Israeli nuclear strike, tactical or otherwise, but it’s a real one and businesses and investors need to consider it in their wildcards.

And beyond the irony of bombing a country you’re trying to prevent from getting the bomb, it’s also something more frequently being discussed as a plausible, if not probable, future. We can see the self-aggrandisement when it’s raised as a possibility by disgruntled ex-allies like Tucker Carlson or Marjorie Taylor Greene. But when it’s also being discussed by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and allegedly General Dan Caine, then it’s worth consideration.

This week, Oscar Martin is back with a what-if scenario should this third option occur. And as Trump muses again on attacking Pickaxe Mountain, the alleged site of Iran’s remaining enriched uranium stockpile, it’s not just academic speculation. Bunker-buster munitions, as in June 2025, can only get you so far.

Oscar begins:

The last time a nuclear weapon was used in war was on 9 August 1945, when the US dropped ‘Fat Man’ over Nagasaki, with an immediate death toll of 40,000 people. It has been 81 years since humanity deployed its most destructive form of weaponry, despite proliferation and numerous close calls during the Cold War.

There are various arguments for why this was the last use of such a dangerous yet effective tool. A large part is deterrence, and the theory of mutually assured destruction if nuclear weapons were ever used against other nuclear powers or their allies. Additionally, it has become normatively accepted that nuclear weapons are distinct, morally and politically, from conventional weapons. However, as a world built on post-WW2 norms seems to be crumbling, the nuclear question has come back into view. Especially as the US seems to have reached an impasse in Iran.

The Iran conflict re-escalated this week. After a month without strong military action, the US and Iran resumed strikes, continuing a pattern of failed negotiations and increasing escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains contested, placing further pressure on global energy markets, while 50,000 US personnel remain in the region. Although the Trump administration’s goals with the Iran war have never been consistent, what is clear is that they did not think they would be engaged in a politically and economically expensive conflict for over seven months. The war has already cost the taxpayer at least $37.5 billion.

As the impasse between the US and Iran hardens, and unexpected scenarios continue to emerge, the possibility of the deployment of nuclear weapons, tactical or strategic, seems increasingly possible, even if still unlikely.

Imagine Iran launches an effective strike against a major Israeli or US military or civilian asset. The US and Israel face increasing international and domestic pressure to end the war, as personnel and economic losses begin to pile up. It becomes clear that the US cannot end this war through conventional means, and certainly cannot end it through political will, as Iran has strengthened its hold on its people and forces. Trump authorises a tactical nuclear strike on Iranian critical infrastructure, a facility like Pickaxe, or an IRGC stronghold, to suddenly and brutally bring an end to the conflict.

So what then?

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Trump’s information campaign goes off base.

• ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu calls Tehran’s bluff.

• KOREAN PENINSULA. Lee eyes a pact for security.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Seen from Svalbard, a deal still looks distant.

• BRITAIN. ARGENTINA. Pressure on the Falklands runs via DC.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.

See how we help organisations

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IRAN. See no evil

Trump’s information campaign goes off base.

JD Vance denied there was a “war" with Iran as Howard Lutnick claimed there had been no American deaths, before later saying he meant in Venezuela. Donald Trump called the media "treasonous scum" for reporting on interceptor shortages.

INTELLIGENCE. Rather than trying to shape the narrative, the White House is now just denying it. Yet the bluster has had little impact on polls or the markets. Brent remains above $95, despite claims that 18 million barrels are exiting the Gulf each day, just shy of pre-war levels. The Republican Party is in a pre-midterms panic, with requests to use some of Trump’s super PAC funds unanswered and marginal district candidates boycotting its Dallas convention.

FOR BUSINESS. Between US claims and commercial data, it’s hard to know how much is exiting Hormuz. Judging from futures, it’s not nothing but it’s not much. Red Sea flows are clearer, but amid ongoing fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and the Saudi-backed government, the risk of the Bab-el-Mandeb closing again can’t be ruled out. US refined storage is meanwhile at an all-time low for September, just as maintenance for many facilities is becoming overdue.

ISRAEL. LEBANON. A ridge too far

Netanyahu calls Tehran’s bluff.

Iran said it would respond “forcefully” if Israel took Lebanon’s Ali al-Taher ridge. Israel said it had cleared Hezbollah tunnels inside the range. Defence Minister Israel Katz said an Iranian attack would free the IDF “from any restrictions.”

INTELLIGENCE. Iran has focused its attacks on US bases but not Israel. Whether this

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