Hello from London,

Last week, Michael and I hosted a private roundtable discussion with paid subscribers, looking at some of the geopolitical developments we think matter most as we head into the second half of August.

We started with the Iran war: whether the United States has become trapped by the logic of escalation, what an eventual settlement might look like, and whether the conflict has ultimately strengthened rather than weakened the Iranian regime. From there, we looked at the renewed risks to shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, and what they tell us about the vulnerability of the global economy to maritime chokepoints.

We then turned to Europe, including the extraordinary events in Ceuta, the growing weaponisation of migration, and the longer-term pressures building across the Sahel. And finally, we looked at Britain under its new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, and whether he has the political capital — and willingness — to confront the country’s increasingly difficult economic and demographic position.

You can find the recording and transcript below.

If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can upgrade your subscription to access the full conversation, along with all the other benefits of Geopolitical Dispatch, including:

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Best wishes,
Damien

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Trump tries to pull out from the fire.

• YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. The Houthis test a new alliance.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu rejects a plan for Gaza.

• SYRIA. RUSSIA. Moscow keeps its Mediterranean presence.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. NATO is probed for another TACO.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

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IRAN. Escape key

Trump tries to pull out from the fire.

Donald Trump told Axios he was “low-keying it” rather than mulling new strikes. Iran said it was near a deal with Oman, but the US must meet new demands for Hormuz to open. Trump may forego a nuclear deal, the Wall Street Journal said.

INTELLIGENCE. There’s a risk Tehran might push too hard, but so far, it seems to be getting all it wanted plus more. While its economy is wrecked, Iran’s strategic gains will be ample compensation for its leaders. Indeed, they may be happy to play up the material losses, both to help Trump find a domestic offramp (he has already pivoted the narrative to “Iran has no money!”), and justify claims for $300 billion in compensation, $100 billion in unfrozen funds, and tolls.

FOR BUSINESS. A six-time bankrupt, Trump will have fewer issues in cutting his losses than any other president, but he’ll likely need more than lower oil prices to sell the surrender. If Iran is serious, it will help him do that. If it just wants humiliation (or Jimmy Carter-style regime change) it risks the conflict re-escalating. And while the US has worn down its missile stocks, it can still do further damage. Range-trading crude prices reflect the dilemma of a cornered Trump.

YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Clouds on the Sunni side

The Houthis test a new alliance.

Yemen’s Houthi militia attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery for a second time, just days after Riyadh signed a defence pact with Ankara and Islamabad. Turkey said the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” was the same as NATO’s Article 5.

INTELLIGENCE. The Iran-backed Houthis have attacked a refinery already closed for

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Hello,

In this edition of Week Signals:

• IN REVIEW. European heatwaves, Turkish summits, lessons from Australia, and a new dependence on China.

• UP AHEAD. Conclaves in Beidaihe, primaries in the Midwest, elections for the Cook Islands, Zambia, and Clacton.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy - a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning and geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations, and GD Corporate Memberships. Learn more or upgrade for the full edition below

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The Week in Review: Inconvenient truth, urgent questions

The week began with an evaporating threat to bomb Iran. It ended with a Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey defence pact and the dawning realisation that the US has run out of ammo.

We’re going to return to the Middle East next week, and unpack what this means not just for regional security but global order as more information comes to light, but as those in the northern hemisphere enter the dog days of summer, it’s worth revisiting another top-level geopolitical theme: climate change.

What has been seen as the biggest international challenge of our age – especially since Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth in 2006 – has taken a surprising back seat politically (or perhaps not so surprisingly) as other key challenges – the 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 European migrant crisis, the 2020 Covid emergency, the wars since 2022, the mania for AI – have taken the fore.

Yet, economically, a warming world continues to shape business and investment decisions, even if you don’t believe it’s true. Renewables have now overtaken fossil fuels in many economies. In 2006, 30,000 US homes had solar panels. Now more than 6 million do. Globally, solar now provides 9% of total supply, from a fraction of a percent. Wind energy has likewise grown exponentially. Nuclear energy is having a renaissance, after the post-Fukushima backlash of 2011-12. Events in the Strait of Hormuz will only further accelerate these trends.

On the other side of the ledger, climate change is also melting ice – making Arctic shipping routes more viable for longer stretches of the year – and forcing changes in agriculture, from new conflicts in the Sahel to new wine regions in southern England. It’s also, of course, the centre of a heat wave debate in Europe and North America that looks only set to continue should predictions of a “super El Niño” this year pan out.

Ahead of this year’s season of diplomatic summits on the challenge, and writing from an unairconditioned apartment in the French capital, Oscar Martin provides his views:

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. A new game begins in the Middle East.

• YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. The Houthis set a timer for withdrawal.

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Traditions resume before Xi’s visit.

• MEXICO. Crime and sanitation join tariffs in impeding trade.

• ARGENTINA. Competition heats up in the southern cone.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

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IRAN. The joker packs it in

A new game begins in the Middle East.

Donald Trump said the war in Iran would end "pretty soon" but denied munition stocks were low. The leaders of Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia met to sign a new alliance. Iran said it would ban all US and Israeli vessels from Hormuz.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump looks to be preparing an exit. Widespread “treasonous” reports of depleted long-range and interceptor missiles appear true, as does discord with Pete Hegseth. A Pentagon-wide call for “creative” solutions appears unheeded. US assets remain in the Gulf, but CENTCOM has already left bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, eyeing a presence in the Negev instead. US forces are due to leave Iraq next month. The region may soon end up on its own.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump will take pains not to repeat Biden’s retreat from Kabul. And even in the extreme scenario that it leaves all positions in the Gulf, the US can still project power from Europe, Israel, and Diego Garcia. But what increasingly looks like a repeat of Britain’s Suez crisis will require higher military cooperation, and spending, among Gulf states. The question is whether the Saudi-Pakistan axis will be expanded or countered by a UAE-Israel-India one.

YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Rocket in the rear

The Houthis set a timer for withdrawal.

Oil rose after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia hit a fourth ship in the Red Sea, killed 30 government troops, and injured 11 civilians in Saudi Arabia. A senior Iraqi Shia commander called on pro-Iran militias to pause attacks against Riyadh.

INTELLIGENCE. The Houthis' escalating attacks appear out of kilter with de-

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. The contours of a new strait emerge.

• ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu floats a veto for his voters.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A drone in Leipzig; meetings in Vienna.

• BANGLADESH. Hasina seems to have overstayed her welcome.

• DR CONGO. Ebola spreads faster than efforts to contain it.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

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IRAN. Route of the matter

The contours of a new strait emerge.

Iran would gain control of ships entering Hormuz under a proposed deal with Oman, Reuters said Wednesday. The US had no comment, but Donald Trump told a Las Vegas rally “I’d rather make a deal because I don’t want to kill people.”

INTELLIGENCE. Should the US agree, this would be a huge concession on top of those already made in the 17 June memorandum of understanding. Iran says this MoU, signed by Trump at the Palace of Versailles, would be the basis of another 60-day interim period where the Strait is reopened while further details, including on nuclear stockpiles, are negotiated. Arab Gulf states would presumably hate it, but without defensive weapons, there’s little they can do.

FOR BUSINESS. Tehran says a deal is contingent on a lifting of sanctions and the release of funds. Washington appears to be open, having lifted sanctions on two IRGC-linked airlines overnight. There are reports of tolls of up to 7% on the value of cargoes, which could net Tehran $100 billion annually (or a third of GDP) based on pre-war volumes. Should tolls be transacted in yuan, as they did early in the conflict, this could drive RMB internationalisation.

ISRAEL. LEBANON. How to lose a deal in 60 days

Netanyahu floats a veto for his voters.

Two Israeli soldiers were killed in an IED blast in Lebanon, the IDF said Thursday, prompting retaliatory strikes and deadlock at talks in Rome. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would counter Iran's nuclear threat irrespective of any deal.

INTELLIGENCE. Iran continues to say a deal on Hormuz requires Israel to exit

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Markets celebrate a looming capitulation.

• EUROPE. A migration gambit meets a wall of resistance.

• UNITED STATES. A primary in Michigan could define 2028.

• BRAZIL. Diplomatic downgrades are a re-election gift.

• CAMEROON. A reshuffle portends a showdown.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

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IRAN. Strait surrender

Markets celebrate a looming capitulation.

Brent futures fell to $78 as Donald Trump claimed talks with Iran were moving “very nicely’ and Scott Bessent said Hormuz could open today. Iranian media said the Strait would open subject to a lifting of all sanctions and full control.

INTELLIGENCE. Reading between the many and differing reports, even those indicating delay, it seems Iran will get most of what it wants. Markets may be prematurely celebrating a TACO, but even so, Trump won’t want to rain on their parade just to defend esoteric ideas like US hegemony or the petrodollar (assuming Iran tolls and it’s in RMB). At this stage, with US strategic reserves nearing 300 million barrels and weapons stocks even worse, only oil matters.

FOR BUSINESS. Iran will want to get the oil flowing as much as anyone, particularly if it can clip the ticket, but markets may be disappointed by the Gulf’s limited available barrels, estimated at just 23 million in floating storage, versus the 70 million that escaped during the ceasefire after 17 June. Elsewhere, Qatar’s force majeure continues for LNG, and refined products may long remain at a shortfall due to damage. Hardliners in Israel and Iran are also yet to weigh in.

EUROPE. Lost at Ceuta

A migration gambit meets a wall of resistance.

European interior ministers affirmed support for Spain and Italy downplayed its decision to introduce border checks after around 70,000 of 72,000 migrants who entered Ceuta had been returned. Labour moved ahead of Reform in UK polling.

INTELLIGENCE. If Morocco hoped to weaponise last week’s border crisis, as

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Trump claims negotiation as markets eye capitulation.

• ETHIOPIA. Another conflict hits the Red Sea periphery.

• INDIA. Modi’s exam crisis reaches the ballot box.

• MYANMAR. The junta takes a gamble with Suu Kyi’s reappearance.

• INDONESIA. Amid government dysfunction, business prepares for the worst.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

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IRAN. Unbelievably duplicitous

Trump claims negotiation as markets eye capitulation.

Donald Trump said Iran was “unbelievably duplicitous” for claiming it wasn’t in talks as a US base in Kuwait came under drone attack and a ship off Oman was hit. Trump warned Tehran faced “decapitation” if it didn’t agree to end the conflict.

INTELLIGENCE. Oil futures have barely risen on the latest strikes, with markets assessing Trump just wants to end the war on any terms. Increasingly, these appear to be even more favourable to Iran than the 17 June MoU, insofar as a $300 billion investment pledge may become a transfer and two channels in Hormuz become one (controlled by Iran), with or without a toll. Some crude is still exiting the strait amid the chaos, but it’s a fraction of pre-war levels.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump isn’t checkmated – he can still choose to escalate – but judging from past behaviour and a need for lower oil (demanding Chevron drop prices; ordering drilling off California), he’s in the zone of agreement. The question is whether Iran wants to string this out, for regime change at the midterms, or take the win. In the meantime, it’s playing good and bad cop, with the IRGC visibly lambasting the foreign ministry over talks with Oman.

ETHIOPIA. Tigray for tat

Another conflict hits the Red Sea periphery.

Sudan said border camps had been attacked after hundreds of Tigrayans fled from heavy fighting with Ethiopian forces. Ethiopia said Tigrayan rebels hiding in Sudan had launched a spate of weekend attacks, endangering a three-year peace.

INTELLIGENCE. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front has been given de facto

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A reminder that our next private roundtable discussions are coming up, to be held online on:

• Option 1 - Tuesday 4 August 2026
  4:00 AM EDT · 10:00 AM CEST · 6:00 PM AEST

• Option 2 - Tuesday 4 August 2026 (US/Europe) / Wednesday 5 August 2026 (Asia–Pac)
  5:00 PM EDT · 11:00 PM CEST · 7:00 AM AEST (Wed)

As always, we will cover the major geopolitical developments of the past month and explore what they mean for businesses, financial markets and the wider international system.

These discussions are available exclusively to full subscribers to Geopolitical Dispatch. Paid subscribers can register using the links below.

If you do not yet have a full subscription, you can upgrade any time before the end of July and activate your 30-day free trial to unlock the registration links and secure your place. Doing so will also give you access to the full versions of the Daily Dispatches and Week Signals.

Start your free month

Please register for your preferred session below:

Read more

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Gulf allies phone a friend in the White House.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu raises the stakes for Gaza.

• EUROPEAN EXTERNAL TERRITORIES. Patterns form beyond Ceuta.

• JAPAN. Bessent opens a carry trade of worms.

• SOUTH KOREA. The share market gets out of control.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

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IRAN. Calls to disarm

Gulf allies phone a friend in the White House.

Donald Trump cancelled plans for "military terror" after requests from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. His later claim of a "deal on Hormuz" was rejected by Iran, which hit a tanker, but officials said an agreement with Oman was in the "final stages."

INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s TACO was at the behest of allies, but every climbdown gives leverage to Iran, which is counting down to the midterms and Strategic Petroleum Reserve bottoms. Yet if Tehran gets Washington to acknowledge its control of the Strait – matching its understanding of Article 5 of the 17 June memorandum, which Masoud Pezeshkian said Sunday “will be the centre of gravity” of “foreign relations in the future” – it may reopen it.

FOR BUSINESS. Iran would like to toll Hormuz, but control is more important, hence its strikes at ships that use the southern corridor in Omani waters. Should the US and allies find ways to compensate via other means, such as expediting the MoU’s $300 billion investment fund, the fiction of free passage can resume. This is what markets now expect, but Israel can still kybosh any deal, and its reasons for doing so will only grow as talks turn to nuclear matters.

ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Strip poker

Netanyahu raises the stakes for Gaza.

Israeli strikes killed at least 18 in Gaza Sunday despite Trump announcing a deal on Hamas disarmament he said Israel was “very happy” with. Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesman told Associated Press Israel had raised “serious concerns”.

INTELLIGENCE. The deal, which gives Hamas a long timeline to disarm, and can be

Read more

Hello,

In this edition of Week Signals:

• IN REVIEW. Big Trouble in Little China, from Nvidia to the Imperial Palace, AI's Bear Stearns moment, the circular roads to SoftBank and Sam Altman.

• UP AHEAD. Midterm primaries, Europe’s heatwave, Myanmar meetings, a Bolivian anniversary, and Colombia’s inauguration.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy - a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning and geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations, and GD Corporate Memberships. Learn more or upgrade for the full edition below

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The Week in Review: Trans-Pacific Ponzi

The week began with a pre-market TACO on Iran. It ended with a post-market threat of escalation. In between, wildfires devastated swathes of France and Spain, a drought was declared for most of England, migrants invaded Ceuta, Patriot missile technology was offered, then withdrawn, for Ukraine, and FIFA proposed, then withdrew, a Kushner family-backed privatisation deal for the beautiful game.

If an alien were to open a major newspaper, or a Bloomberg API, the world would look as Eurocentric as in centuries past, but of course we live in the Asian Century – or so we are told – and while the lands of the Romans and the Persians continue to drive geopolitics, the opposite side of the world is driving the other big story: the irrepressible tech industry.

Beyond oil prices, businesses and investors have been able to largely ignore the tales of woe in old countries by focusing on the promises of singularity in the new tech hubs of Silicon Valley, Taipei and Seoul. The Pacific Rim, once best known for its volcanoes and earthquakes (and with a devastating reminder in Kumamoto on Tuesday), is now almost the entire world’s tech economy. Design and venture capital in California. Machines and bond investors in Japan. Semiconductors and speculators in South Korea and Taiwan. Competitors and communists in China. Yes, there’s ASML in the Netherlands, plus some war-damaged hyper-scaling FOMO in the Middle East, but technology in 2026 is primarily a Pacific story.

Yet beyond the turmoil between the Atlantic and Indian oceans, the Pacific is also the zone of the most high-risk geopolitical flashpoints in the coming decades, and it’s also the zone of an overarching geopolitical dilemma: who will run the world, China or the US? And more to the point, as we wrote about last week, more evidence is mounting that its current economic success story – artificial intelligence – could not just be at risk, but could cause an economic crisis that makes Europe’s problems with demography and debt look as quaint as its villages and tourism spots.

The risk isn’t the jobsapocalypse, terminator robots, or any of the doom-trolling that AI’s enthusiasts have begun relying on more as a quasi-marketing campaign (how else to explain the lack of regulation or safety follow-up that follows claims of autonomous hacking, like Anthropic has this week announced in the wake of an earlier claim by OpenAI?). The risk is plainer: not just a financial bubble, but a financial Ponzi scheme.

Read more

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Trump weighs his options at a rare cabinet offsite.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Hamas is given several years to return its guns.

• SPAIN. MOROCCO. Rabat does a Lukashenko on Madrid.

• POLAND. UKRAINE. With Putin and Trump, neighbours can’t be choosers.

• RUSSIA. KAZAKHSTAN. Astana lends Moscow its strategic depth.

IRAN. Retreat or advance?

Trump weighs his options at a rare cabinet offsite.

Donald Trump would travel to Camp David with his cabinet today, the White House said, as the IRGC claimed to have destroyed several F-35s in Jordan and a facility in Kuwait. Saudi Arabia launched strikes on the Houthi capital of Sana’a.

INTELLIGENCE. Pakistan insists talks are ongoing, Kpler suggests more oil is exiting Hormuz, and CENTCOM has denied Tehran’s claims, but an unusually quiet Trump, and an increasingly aggressive tempo of strikes by Iran and its proxies, suggest today’s cabinet meeting may be more than a teambuilding exercise. Trump rarely visits the Maryland facility, and when he has done so, like prior to Midnight Hammer and the Islamabad MoU, it’s for a reason.

FOR BUSINESS. Compared to 36 at his Bedminster golf club, which he’ll visit later, Camp David only has one hole. Still, Trump will have lots on his plate. Reportedly furious at his team’s lack of a plan, he’ll need to make a decision quickly on whether to escalate or retreat. Stretching out the war, with its continual cycle of talks, strikes, and TACOs, simply draws down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, now at 307 million barrels, close to its assessed minimum.

ISRAEL. PALESTINE. The complete idiot's guide to disarmament

Hamas is given several years to return its guns.

Trump said his Board of Peace had reached an agreement for Hamas’s “complete disarmament” in “structured phases”. Officials said Trump would be “very disappointed” if Israel blocked the plan. Hamas said Israel would need to leave Gaza.

INTELLIGENCE. It’s unclear how the deal solves the dilemma of whether Hamas must

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Amid strategic confusion, Trump struggles to land a blow.

• SAUDI ARABIA. Riyadh faces problems that money cannot fix.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv wins online while losing on ground.

• UNITED STATES. Warsh asks for price stability, but not yet.

• VENEZUELA. Caracas and Washington collude to keep Machado out.

IRAN. Taking a beating

Amid strategic confusion, Trump struggles to land a blow.

The US struck dozens of targets Wednesday after Donald Trump told Fox he would “beat the f*cking sh*t” out of Iran. Israeli officials said Trump discussed his options with Benjamin Netanyahu. US oil inventories fell by 11 million barrels.

INTELLIGENCE. The US retaliation to Iran’s attack on a Jordan air base does not, at least yet, match Trump’s rhetoric, but CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper has reportedly requested a two-week “surge”. This would contradict reported interceptor shortage fears, but offence may now be a better defence in an otherwise widening and seemingly intractable conflict. Israel is also reported to have urged greater action, but is sensitive to claims of undue influence.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump may personally want to strike hard, and may harbour latent fantasies of taking Kharg Island, but he doesn’t want military body bags, or oil at $150. Still, now that he’s begun the war, he must end it, and unless he wants to capitulate on the June ceasefire terms that remain contested (i.e., who controls Hormuz), he will need to escalate. As US crude stocks continue to fall, Trump won’t be the only one frustrated with the strategic confusion.

SAUDI ARABIA. Battle Riyal

Riyadh faces problems that money cannot fix.

Iraq's prime minister cancelled a visit to Riyadh after Saudi and US forces killed 20 members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, a Shia paramilitary. Riyadh was canvassing an international coalition to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

INTELLIGENCE. Riyadh reluctantly returned to the war after Tehran-backed militants

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Hello from London,

I would like to warmly invite you to our next private roundtable discussions, to be held online on:

• Option 1 - Tuesday 4 August 2026
  4:00 AM EDT · 10:00 AM CEST · 6:00 PM AEST

• Option 2 - Tuesday 4 August 2026 (US/Europe) / Wednesday 5 August 2026 (Asia–Pac)
  5:00 PM EDT · 11:00 PM CEST · 7:00 AM AEST (Wed)

As always, we will cover the major geopolitical developments of the past month and explore what they mean for businesses, financial markets and the wider international system.

This is a chance to speak directly with Michael Feller, our Chief Strategist and principal author of Geopolitical Dispatch, and me about the major topics in international affairs, as well as our expectations and forecasts for the month ahead.

Each month, we host a live one-hour session, with the first half dedicated to a panel-style discussion and the second half reserved for off-the-record Q&A with fellow readers.

These discussions are available exclusively to full subscribers to Geopolitical Dispatch. Paid subscribers can register using the links below.

If you do not yet have a full subscription, you can upgrade any time before the end of July and activate your 30-day free trial to unlock the registration links and secure your place. Doing so will also give you access to the full versions of the Daily Dispatches and Week Signals.

Start your free month

Please register for your preferred session below:

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. A strike on Jordan shatters a negotiation illusion.

• LIBYA. Washington’s impatience could short-circuit stability.

• UNITED STATES. Diplomatic ghosting haunts Graham’s funeral.

• ARGENTINA. El Loco’s money seems sounder than his mind.

• ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. Markets start to check their models.

IRAN. Injury to insult

A strike on Jordan shatters a negotiation illusion.

Oil futures jumped 5% after Tehran launched surprise strikes early Wednesday on Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, where three US personnel were killed on 17 July. Iran earlier dismissed an Omani proposal for "voluntary” Hormuz “fees”.

INTELLIGENCE. The attack, which CENTCOM claims to have intercepted, will test both Donald Trump and the Fed, for whom the week’s markedly lower oil prices had otherwise given a dovish hue to the FOMC. It will also test regional US allies, who had been drifting toward accommodation, whether in Oman’s fee proposal or the UAE’s reported outreach. Tehran is either very confident in its leverage, or its hardliners still oppose even the smallest compromise.

FOR BUSINESS. While a minority will oppose any deal, it’s more likely the strike was part of a judgment in Tehran that it can resuscitate not only the best bits of the June ceasefire memorandum but new concessions on control of Hormuz. Israeli media reports “substantial” offers from the US, while Reuters says China has asked the Houthis for “exclusive preferences” in the Red Sea. Trump, for whom all politics is a transaction, can only admire the chutzpah.

LIBYA. Power plays

Washington’s impatience could short-circuit stability.

Production resumed Tuesday after protesters breached the Mellitah oil and gas complex as part of a youth-led campaign to “paralyse the government”. Trump adviser Massad Boulos said he had a “productive call” with the prime minister.

INTELLIGENCE. Boulos, also Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, has sought to deliver

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. SAUDI ARABIA. As oil prices peace, war continues.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Efforts to merge conflicts may backfire.

• FRANCE. SPAIN. Drought, heat, and fire take their toll.

• JAPAN. Takaichi sails between inflation and the bond market.

• INDONESIA. The knives come out for a chaotic presidency.

IRAN. SAUDI ARABIA. Have Abqaiq and eat it

As oil prices peace, war continues.

Oil futures extended losses as Donald Trump claimed "good talks" with Iran. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reported fresh drone attacks, including at Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility near the Persian Gulf, which processes 7% of the world's oil.

INTELLIGENCE. Superficially, the strike on Abqaiq – the world’s biggest oil processing facility – means 7% less refinery demand. But its message – on the same place the Houthis targeted in 2019 during the Yemeni civil war – is that Iran’s proxies are ready, willing and able to escalate, even if talks are underway (which Iran says they’re not). Abqaiq’s 2019 strike cut Saudi production in half for weeks and saw Brent futures soar 20%. Luckily, it was a one-off.

FOR BUSINESS. Traders either believe everything Trump says (even the contradictions) or there’s rife manipulation. Reports of coordinated shorting via opaque exchanges like Hyperliquid, and the wealth accumulated by Trump’s family on similar platforms, might offer a clue. But while lower oil prices will be welcome, the lack of direction, or any apparent plan, risks a wider midterms backlash. An Ipsos poll shows only one in three Americans now back the war.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Let's you and him fight

Efforts to merge conflicts may backfire.

Volodymyr Zelensky prepared to meet Trump Tuesday ahead of Lindsey Graham’s funeral and a Senate vote on Russian sanctions. Kyiv earlier said Moscow was giving Tehran satellite intelligence, and hit an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea.

INTELLIGENCE. Analytical framing of the wars in Ukraine and Iran as one conflict

Read more

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. A pause amid a buildup and the horns of a dilemma.

• SAUDI ARABIA. The Houthis give something to chew on.

• ISRAEL. In Syria and Lebanon, Netanyahu exercises his options.

• MOROCCO. Mohammed VI plays tricks at both ends of the Sahara.

• INDIA. Modi’s effort to win back young voters won’t be easy.

IRAN. Tactical TACO

A pause amid a buildup and the horns of a dilemma.

Donald Trump cancelled strikes over the weekend due to diminishing interceptor stocks, the New York Times said. The strikes were cancelled due to Omani-brokered talks, Axios said. Iran said it would halt its attacks if the US did the same.

INTELLIGENCE. Irrespective of the pause’s reason, oil futures reacted as if peace is at hand, dropping 7%. Yet Hormuz remains closed, Trump continues his social media threats, and more military assets arrive each day. Even if the war remains politically unpopular and economically risky, Trump will be tempted to use the tools made available to him. From Napoleon to Putin, the maxim that you can’t sit on bayonets has held. And they, at least, had impulse control.

FOR BUSINESS. Diplomacy may take its course, but it’s unlikely to arrive, at least for the US, at a better outcome than the Islamabad memorandum signed on 17 June. Whether in interceptors, oil reserves, or days to the midterms, all Trump’s numbers are down. Tehran is playing hardball. Amid another reported tanker explosion, and threats to kill a US soldier for every civilian, it is rejecting talks on other issues until the US first affirms its ownership of Hormuz.

SAUDI ARABIA. Tit-for-qat

The Houthis give something to chew on.

Bab-el-Mandeb traffic fell to the lowest level in months after Yemen’s Houthis hit a Saudi Aramco refinery at Jazan and Riyadh struck the Houthi-held port of Hodeidah. More China-linked tankers containing Saudi crude nonetheless passed.

INTELLIGENCE. With Hormuz strikes paused, the Red Sea is now the war’s hottest

Read more

Hello,

In this edition of Week Signals:

• IN REVIEW. A bubble seen from China, capital formation in the 21^st century, swallowing the banquet, marble boats.

• UP AHEAD. Elections in Kashmir, visitors to Washington, decisions at the Fed, and the next UN secretary general.

The Week in Review: Xi Jinping, party popper

The week began with oil at $90 and ended closer to $100. With the war in Iran stretching now to a semi-blockade in the Red Sea, and threatening to go beyond tit-for-tat strikes, oil could foreseeably end next week closer to $110 – unless, of course, we get another TACO or two.

Watching the unedifying spectacle will be Xi Jinping, who has remained publicly quiet on the war, but was put in the spotlight by Donald Trump Friday, with something of a warning not to get involved, which of course suggests he already is.

Xi, if anything, is a man who knows his history. And like his friend Vladimir Putin, he’s haunted by the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Putin famously sees this as the great catastrophe of the 20th century (a bold claim, considering what else transpired). Xi, like others in the Chinese Communist Party, sees it more as a cautionary tale. This is the view that considers Tiananmen Square to be a brutal necessity and Mikhail Gorbachev’s program of glasnost and perestroika a critical error. Yet there are other late-Soviet lessons too, no doubt, that the CCP has dwelt on.

In the analysis of contemporary Chinese thought on modern-day America (see the excellent Sinification for examples), one thing that’s striking is how – despite the advanced years of their own politburo – Beijing sees the age of US presidents, senators and representatives as a signal of Washington’s decadence and decay, in much the way that Soviet leadership under Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko, was characterised as a gerontocracy, a point also made by British historian Niall Ferguson, among many others.

Less discussed is how they might, through Marxist-Leninist eyes, see the two other great trends of current US history: the build-out of AI and the fanning of its bubble-like rise; plus the diminishing of US oil reserves, as yet another war is pursued in West Asia.

Again, to any Chinese observers of the Soviet Union, the patterns might be familiar. Not only did a feeble-minded gerontocracy bring down the mighty USSR, but so did an unwinnable war in Afghanistan and an economy-sapping arms race. And what about the US in its 250th year? Nuclear space-launch platforms then. Manhattan-sized datacentres today. Yesterday’s Mujahadeen and today’s Houthis, Hezbollah, and IRGC.

Add to that the energy complex. Huge oil and gas reserves were Moscow’s saving grace, particularly as the OPEC embargo and Islamic Revolutions spiked prices in the 1970s. The US also has huge energy reserves, but also huge demand, and, for now, it remains plugged into global prices. The closure of Hormuz may slightly help a Texan shale driller, but it really hurts a Texan Chevy driver.

One other thing I suspect Xi thinks about, when not thinking about the Russian Empire, is his underappreciated success (in the West, at least) in deflating one of the world’s biggest examples of gross capital misallocation: the Chinese property market.

Xi, grounded in Marxian analysis of how markets actually work (sometimes that may be more accurate than the mainstream understanding), knows an unproductive spending spree – like the Soviet arms industry during Reagan’s Star Wars – when he sees one. Whether Russian weapons, Chinese apartments, or US hyperscalers, he may have a better idea than many Wall Street traders about the difference between boom and bubble, asset and liability. And what’s undisputed is that he has a better idea of how to prick a big, misallocative bubble.

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**An earlier version of this email was sent without the final dispatch - apologies.**

Hello,

The world is on a knife-edge. Conflict in the Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb straits, $100 oil, new US tariffs, and fears of a market bubble make perceptive and clarifying insight vital.

I’ve made today’s edition free. Each of today’s dispatches is not just worth reading in its own right, but I want to encourage you to upgrade your subscription or share this email with your network.

Geopolitical Dispatch is written by former diplomats with deep experience in international relations. It’s not written by AI, nor is it news media selling an agenda, clickbait selling ads, or an investment bank selling positions. The only thing we sell is the quality of our analysis.

Consider how you can stay ahead of today’s trends and not be surprised by tomorrow’s headlines. There are still several days to take advantage of our special July offer.

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. As the quagmire deepens, a pattern emerges.

• SAUDI ARABIA. Trump tries belatedly to stretch a deal.

• JAPAN. Tokyo debates the risks of nuclear fallout.

• INDIA. Modi tries to avert another South Asian Gen-Z revolt.

• UNITED STATES. More tariffs on the road to serfdom.

IRAN. It tolls for Xi

As the quagmire deepens, a pattern emerges.

Brent futures hit $100 a barrel as Donald Trump vowed “major military punishment” and more US assets entered the region. CENTCOM said it had finished a 13^th consecutive night of strikes. The S&P 500 suffered its worst day in a month.

INTELLIGENCE. Oil has since eased as markets pre-empt the now-established pattern of a Sunday night TACO. The US has signalled restraint by blowing up empty boats in lieu of other targets. Trump even described the Houthis as once having “acted very professionally and smart” – high praise for designated terrorists. Yet a pattern of Sino-Iranian cooperation is also emerging, with the Houthis letting two Chinese tankers through. This could define the next phase.

FOR BUSINESS. In the short term, restraint on Chinese shipping shows Iran still values a functioning global economy, and isn’t suicidal. Yet in the long term, it could signal that China has an upper hand on the US, giving Trump a new dilemma in terms of escalating or not. Active cooperation between Beijing and Tehran would make this a world war. Yet it also gives the US and Iran an offramp if China were to shoulder regional security, including on the issue of tolls.

SAUDI ARABIA. Abraham accordion

Trump tries belatedly to stretch a deal.

Trump said a nuclear deal with Riyadh, signed Wednesday, would be contingent on it joining the Abraham Accords after a day of GOP and Israeli pressure. The White House suggested Energy Secretary Chris Wright acted without authority.

INTELLIGENCE. Riyadh is unlikely to accept a contract amendment, and it’s unlikely that Trump was not briefed. Still, Trump’s attempts to squeeze out another concession show incompetence of a different kind. Riyadh recognising Israel will be politically impossible without a two-state solution, particularly as Foreign Minister Prince Faisal prepares to host a conference on the topic next week. Trump’s attempt to shift the goalposts will only help Beijing score again.

FOR BUSINESS. The deal, which lacked IAEA safeguards or enrichment restrictions, was likely less due to diplomatic ineptitude than strategic desperation, as Saudi Arabia moves toward a Pakistani (i.e. Chinese) umbrella and shows ongoing discomfort with a war neither requested nor approved. With terms now up in the air, a Chinese alternative looks even more appealing, a point that will at least have been noticed by Marco Rubio as he met Wang Yi in Manila.

JAPAN. Godzilla complex

Tokyo debates the risks of nuclear fallout.

Japan was reviewing its $40 billion nuclear deal with the US due to fears it would be held liable for a meltdown on US soil, the Financial Times said. US officials praised a framework with Japan and South Korea on small modular reactors.

INTELLIGENCE. The SMR framework, signed at this month’s NATO summit and highlighted during Rubio’s Manila visit, is, like the bilateral Japan-US deal, a sign of enduring US engagement in East Asia, yet dodgy terms, whether the fault of Tokyo and Washington, could present another win for Beijing. As shown in Obama’s Iran nuclear pact, which took 20 months to negotiate, technical deals are hard. Trump’s fast and loose approach is causing chain reactions.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s propensity to move fast, break things, and link security treaties to trade and investment deals may have a limited half-life, particularly as contenders for future arrangements split for other partners. Beyond China, Russia, India and France could particularly benefit as they pursue their own atomic diplomacy. Even loyal allies like Australia, which made another $4.6 billion AUKUS downpayment Thursday, may one day find the US radioactive.

INDIA. We don't need no education minister

Modi tries to avert another South Asian Gen-Z revolt.

Leaders of the Cockroach Janata Party, an unregistered youth-led movement, met with senior ministers near parliament Friday in an effort to diffuse tensions after days of protests. Activist Sonam Wangchuk ended a 26-day hunger strike.

INTELLIGENCE. The meeting, at Delhi’s posh Constitution Club, may mollify some of the cockroaches, but judging by the recent efforts of other South Asian governments to co-opt unruly youth, more work may be needed. The CJP continues to call for Narendra Modi’s education minister, Dharmendra Pradhan, to resign over his handling of a paper leak in this year’s medical entrance exam. It may seem trivial, but to young Indians struggling for jobs, it’s everything.

FOR BUSINESS. In India, NEET stands for National Eligibility Entrance Test, not the OECD acronym Not in Education Employment or Training, but it could be the same. India’s economy is booming, but good white-collar jobs are scarce, and AI is feared, like in much of the world, to be taking the best of the services export sector. Modi will know that the gap between expectation and reality saw regime change in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal between 2022 and 2025.

UNITED STATES. Unforced error

More tariffs on the road to serfdom.

New tariffs between 10 and 12.5% were imposed on 60 countries Friday following an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act on forced labour practices. Countries with the highest duties included New Zealand, Norway and Uruguay.

INTELLIGENCE. New Zealand isn’t a known centre of modern slavery. That Cambodia and Pakistan only got a 10% levy, and that Eritrea and Mauritania, often seen as the worst offenders, didn’t get any, deepens the mystery. The s301 duties replace earlier tariffs under the separate International Emergency Economic Powers Act, struck down by the Supreme Court in February. S301 has had a better record at surviving legal scrutiny, but this is not a guarantee.

FOR BUSINESS. Erratic US trade policy looks set to continue. Still, while the tariffs remain, Trump will have regained some leverage over Washington’s 60 biggest trading partners, which is what today’s list represents. It comes amid a separate US lawsuit against Swiss chocolate maker Lindt over alleged child labour and follows Tuesday’s social media announcement of 100% tariff on generic drugs, to take effect in 2028. No official policy on this has been seen.

Thank you for subscribing to Geopolitical Dispatch. Feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.

Best,

Michael Feller, Chief Strategist

michael@geopolitical-strategy.com

**An earlier version of this email was sent without the final dispatch - apologies.**

Hello,

The world is on a knife-edge. Conflict in the Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb straits, $100 oil, new US tariffs, and fears of a market bubble make perceptive and clarifying insight vital.

I’ve made today’s edition free. Each of today’s dispatches is not just worth reading in its own right, but I want to encourage you to upgrade your subscription or share this email with your network.

Geopolitical Dispatch is written by former diplomats with deep experience in international relations. It’s not written by AI, nor is it news media selling an agenda, clickbait selling ads, or an investment bank selling positions. The only thing we sell is the quality of our analysis.

Consider how you can stay ahead of today’s trends and not be surprised by tomorrow’s headlines. There are still several days to take advantage of our special July offer.

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. As the quagmire deepens, a pattern emerges.

• SAUDI ARABIA. Trump tries belatedly to stretch a deal.

• JAPAN. Tokyo debates the risks of nuclear fallout.

• INDIA. Modi tries to avert another South Asian Gen-Z revolt.

• UNITED STATES. More tariffs on the road to serfdom.

IRAN. It tolls for Xi

As the quagmire deepens, a pattern emerges.

Brent futures hit $100 a barrel as Donald Trump vowed “major military punishment” and more US assets entered the region. CENTCOM said it had finished a 13^th consecutive night of strikes. The S&P 500 suffered its worst day in a month.

INTELLIGENCE. Oil has since eased as markets pre-empt the now-established pattern of a Sunday night TACO. The US has signalled restraint by blowing up empty boats in lieu of other targets. Trump even described the Houthis as once having “acted very professionally and smart” – high praise for designated terrorists. Yet a pattern of Sino-Iranian cooperation is also emerging, with the Houthis letting two Chinese tankers through. This could define the next phase.

FOR BUSINESS. In the short term, restraint on Chinese shipping shows Iran still values a functioning global economy, and isn’t suicidal. Yet in the long term, it could signal that China has an upper hand on the US, giving Trump a new dilemma in terms of escalating or not. Active cooperation between Beijing and Tehran would make this a world war. Yet it also gives the US and Iran an offramp if China were to shoulder regional security, including on the issue of tolls.

SAUDI ARABIA. Abraham accordion

Trump tries belatedly to stretch a deal.

Trump said a nuclear deal with Riyadh, signed Wednesday, would be contingent on it joining the Abraham Accords after a day of GOP and Israeli pressure. The White House suggested Energy Secretary Chris Wright acted without authority.

INTELLIGENCE. Riyadh is unlikely to accept a contract amendment, and it’s unlikely that Trump was not briefed. Still, Trump’s attempts to squeeze out another concession show incompetence of a different kind. Riyadh recognising Israel will be politically impossible without a two-state solution, particularly as Foreign Minister Prince Faisal prepares to host a conference on the topic next week. Trump’s attempt to shift the goalposts will only help Beijing score again.

FOR BUSINESS. The deal, which lacked IAEA safeguards or enrichment restrictions, was likely less due to diplomatic ineptitude than strategic desperation, as Saudi Arabia moves toward a Pakistani (i.e. Chinese) umbrella and shows ongoing discomfort with a war neither requested nor approved. With terms now up in the air, a Chinese alternative looks even more appealing, a point that will at least have been noticed by Marco Rubio as he met Wang Yi in Manila.

JAPAN. Godzilla complex

Tokyo debates the risks of nuclear fallout.

Japan was reviewing its $40 billion nuclear deal with the US due to fears it would be held liable for a meltdown on US soil, the Financial Times said. US officials praised a framework with Japan and South Korea on small modular reactors.

INTELLIGENCE. The SMR framework, signed at this month’s NATO summit and highlighted during Rubio’s Manila visit, is, like the bilateral Japan-US deal, a sign of enduring US engagement in East Asia, yet dodgy terms, whether the fault of Tokyo and Washington, could present another win for Beijing. As shown in Obama’s Iran nuclear pact, which took 20 months to negotiate, technical deals are hard. Trump’s fast and loose approach is causing chain reactions.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s propensity to move fast, break things, and link security treaties to trade and investment deals may have a limited half-life, particularly as contenders for future arrangements split for other partners. Beyond China, Russia, India and France could particularly benefit as they pursue their own atomic diplomacy. Even loyal allies like Australia, which made another $4.6 billion AUKUS downpayment Thursday, may one day find the US radioactive.

INDIA. We don't need no education minister

Modi tries to avert another South Asian Gen-Z revolt.

Leaders of the Cockroach Janata Party, an unregistered youth-led movement, met with senior ministers near parliament Friday in an effort to diffuse tensions after days of protests. Activist Sonam Wangchuk ended a 26-day hunger strike.

INTELLIGENCE. The meeting, at Delhi’s posh Constitution Club, may mollify some of the cockroaches, but judging by the recent efforts of other South Asian governments to co-opt unruly youth, more work may be needed. The CJP continues to call for Narendra Modi’s education minister, Dharmendra Pradhan, to resign over his handling of a paper leak in this year’s medical entrance exam. It may seem trivial, but to young Indians struggling for jobs, it’s everything.

FOR BUSINESS. In India, NEET stands for National Eligibility Entrance Test, not the OECD acronym Not in Education Employment or Training, but it could be the same. India’s economy is booming, but good white-collar jobs are scarce, and AI is feared, like in much of the world, to be taking the best of the services export sector. Modi will know that the gap between expectation and reality saw regime change in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal between 2022 and 2025.

UNITED STATES. Unforced error

More tariffs on the road to serfdom.

New tariffs between 10 and 12.5% were imposed on 60 countries Friday following an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act on forced labour practices. Countries with the highest duties included New Zealand, Norway and Uruguay.

INTELLIGENCE. New Zealand isn’t a known centre of modern slavery. That Cambodia and Pakistan only got a 10% levy, and that Eritrea and Mauritania, often seen as the worst offenders, didn’t get any, deepens the mystery. The s301 duties replace earlier tariffs under the separate International Emergency Economic Powers Act, struck down by the Supreme Court in February. S301 has had a better record at surviving legal scrutiny, but this is not a guarantee.

FOR BUSINESS. Erratic US trade policy looks set to continue. Still, while the tariffs remain, Trump will have regained some leverage over Washington’s 60 biggest trading partners, which is what today’s list represents. It comes amid a separate US lawsuit against Swiss chocolate maker Lindt over alleged child labour and follows Tuesday’s social media announcement of 100% tariff on generic drugs, to take effect in 2028. No official policy on this has been seen.

Thank you for subscribing to Geopolitical Dispatch. Feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.

Best,

Michael Feller, Chief Strategist

michael@geopolitical-strategy.com

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. The war’s belligerents try to broaden the costs.

• SAUDI ARABIA. A deal to keep Riyadh in and Beijing out.

• UNITED STATES. The EIA redefines what the oil floor is.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A hardening on land as the agents move in.

• MALI. Washington weighs a return to Bamako.

IRAN. In the land of the blind

The war's belligerents try to broaden the costs.

Oil rose as Donald Trump said the US would “bomb or destroy one bridge or power plant” for every ship attacked. Tehran said its defence doctrine was an “eye for an eye.” A tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz’s Omani corridor exploded.

INTELLIGENCE. Iran claims to have laid new mines at the strait’s southern passage, which very few ships are now attempting. As the US completed a 12^th night of strikes, the war looks to be both extending and widening, even as a US theory of victory remains unclear. As the House passed a $95 billion war budget, more assets arrived in Israel, though other bases, like Qatar's Al-Udeid, now appear abandoned. Iran claims to have mobilised a million reservists.

FOR BUSINESS. Regional businesses are now planning for a protracted war. QatarEnergy is reportedly preparing to extend force majeure into October. DP World is building more ports on the Gulf of Oman, to bypass Hormuz. Owing to the strait’s logjam, China has halted helium exports. Nobody has good foresight on where the war will now lead. The only real acuity appears to be the direct hits Iran is getting on distant US bases, allegedly with Russian assistance.

SAUDI ARABIA. Nukes for thee, but not for Xi

A deal to keep Riyadh in and Beijing out.

The US Department of Energy signed a civil nuclear deal with Riyadh Wednesday, featuring “bilateral” safeguards and enrichment rights. Yemen’s Houthis foreshadowed a “significant military operation” after attacking two Saudi oil tankers.

INTELLIGENCE. The deal not only comes without Trump’s earlier insistence on Israeli

Read more