Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Warnings of Belarus’s entry into the war.

• SPAIN. Parliament urges the prime minister to quit.

• IRAN. Trump and Tehran navigate a shrinking offramp.

• UNITED STATES. JD Vance says the quiet part out loud.

• SOUTH KOREA. A wild market suspends trading once again.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Widening gyre

Warnings of Belarus's entry into the war.

Alexander Lukashenko warned against dragging Belarus into the war after Ukraine threatened to hit relay stations across the border, which were helping Russian drones. Moscow was preparing “provocations” in the Baltic, the Guardian said.

INTELLIGENCE. Minsk is not directly party to the war, but has long assisted Moscow’s efforts. As in the first days of Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion, it could foreseeably be used again as a launchpad for a northern assault. Ukraine’s army has called for new brigades to counter a possible push across this border, which would put further pressure on an already stretched front line. It would also put pressure on Belarus’s Baltic neighbours to get more fully involved.

FOR BUSINESS. If Putin were to bear upon Lukashenko, who has pretended at neutrality in recent months, now is the time, with Ukraine’s relations with Poland in crisis, and with Baltic air defences recently found wanting when Ukrainian drones, targeting St Petersburg, landed in NATO territory instead. And ahead of next month’s NATO summit, US-European unity has seldom looked shakier, with Washington’s outreach to Minsk just one of many points of friction.

SPAIN. Bipartisanchez

Parliament urges the prime minister to quit.

The Congress of Deputies voted 177 to 171 to urge Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to resign, or submit to a confidence vote if he ⁠didn’t call a snap election. Sanchez vowed to stay on. His justice minister called the motion “purely symbolic”.

INTELLIGENCE. Sanchez is under a gathering corruption storm. His former transport

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Negotiating wobbles risk good news for oil supply.

• TURKEY. A fighter jet deal sends shockwaves in Israel.

• ITALY. FRANCE. Amid the heatwave, a diplomatic thaw.

• VENEZUELA. An earthquake shakes the Trump-Delcy condominium.

• PERU. COLOMBIA. Right-wing victories mask bitter divisions.

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IRAN. Dance of the seven veiled threats

Negotiating wobbles risk good news for oil supply.

Donald Trump said there would be no tolls on Hormuz and Iran would purchase food "exclusively" from the US after he emerged from a shouting match in the Senate. Marco Rubio vowed a $300 billion fund would not undermine Gulf security.

INTELLIGENCE. The truce holds, negotiations continue, and more ships are making it out of Hormuz. Brent crude has moved into contango, indicating expected oversupply. Yet Trump is under pressure from his party, Israel, and the Gulf on the terms of the deal. And Iran, while likely judging this is as good as it gets, may make good on threats to reclose the strait as the narrative keeps changing. Optimism is finely balanced, with Cushing stocks soon at tank bottoms.

FOR BUSINESS. Everything must continue to go right for Trump to get out of his self-made mess but, being his own worst enemy, self-sabotage can’t be ruled out. The dilemma is particularly acute as the Pentagon seeks an extra $80 billion in supplementary funding and Israel refuses to withdraw from Lebanon. Trump claims Iran is on the “ropes”, and he holds all the cards, yet it still holds him over a barrel (alongside Israel, the Gulf, the Senate, and the markets).

TURKEY. In the wings

A fighter jet deal sends shockwaves in Israel.

Tayyip ​Erdogan said he expected to hold talks with Trump at next month’s NATO summit. JD Vance said the US was reviewing if it could sell Turkey F-35s. Trump said “I’m going to probably do ⁠something that will make them very happy.”

INTELLIGENCE. Turkey, which is also seeking American engines for its indigenous

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Iran is driving schisms deeper than Trump and MAGA.

• IRAN. Talks continue but keep veering off script.

• DRONES. Lessons emerge on the future of conflict.

• INDONESIA. The delay of an MSCI review barely buys Prabowo time.

• DR CONGO. As Ebola cases rise, the US changes tack.

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UNITED STATES. When elephants fight

Iran is driving schisms deeper than Trump and MAGA.

The Senate joined the House in passing a war powers resolution, the first since 1973, as an Ipsos poll showed Donald Trump’s approval falling to 34%. Trump was due to visit Congress Wednesday to press Republicans for voter ID reform.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s visit, his first in months, is for a lunch that bypassed Majority Leader John Thune, a breach in protocol and another sign that Trump and the GOP establishment are at loggerheads. None of this is new. But after breaking with 47 years of policy on the Middle East, having already torn up Republican norms on trade and economic policy, the party – ahead of both the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential contest – is in an existential crisis.

FOR BUSINESS. Most Republicans remain loyal to Trump and whatever he defines MAGA to be. Yet as his lame duck phase begins, the rebels, ostensibly a “YOLO” faction of disendorsed moderates, will grow. Their loyalties will be less about how Trump treats them than who – JD Vance, Marco Rubio, or someone else – they’ll align with once Trump goes. If they can’t work it out, the GOP risks following the decline of once unassailable parties in other democracies.

IRAN. Versions of the truce

Talks continue but keep veering off script.

Tehran and Washington gave conflicting accounts of agreements on tolls and nuclear inspections as officials from Israel and Lebanon met to discuss a ceasefire neither side could agree was part of the US-Iran deal. Rubio left for the Gulf.

INTELLIGENCE. Rubio is meeting allies in Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE to sell a deal

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. The deal gets moving, and the blame gets shifting.

• RED SEA. As Hormuz opens, another strait comes close to blows.

• CHINA. Beijing seeks to undercut Pax Silica.

• JAPAN. Yen speculation masks structural factors.

• UNITED STATES. Nasdaq braces for a mega-cap meme stock.

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IRAN. Qatar and thrust

The deal gets moving, and the blame gets shifting.

JD Vance said the US had lifted oil sanctions on Iran, which had agreed to IAEA inspections. Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to maintain a presence in Lebanon. Key Republicans slammed a US-Iran “deconfliction cell” involving Qatar but not Israel.

INTELLIGENCE. Few truces leave everyone happy, but this one has united the left and right in opprobrium. The criticism has also united the pro- and anti-Israel factions of the Republican Party, with the former increasingly blaming Qatar, whose prime minister was photographed with Vance and Jared Kushner using a US government laptop, for undue influence. Members of the latter faction have meanwhile blamed Israel for an explosion at a Qatari LNG facility.

FOR BUSINESS. Doha says the incident at Ras Laffan, which killed 13, was a technical accident. But building on claims by the now ex-Republican pundit Tucker Carlson (i.e., “Qatarlson” per Fox News’s Mark Levin), many in MAGA blame Mossad. This is, of course, unfalsifiable, but in a situation both surprising and opaque, rumours are treated as news. And amid conjecture about Vance’s role in defining the deal against Trump, it could become the main story.

RED SEA. Mandeb for all seasons

As Hormuz opens, another strait comes close to blows.

WTI futures fell below $75 as traffic resumed in the Strait of Hormuz, albeit amid conflicting route advice. Somali media said Israeli troops had arrived in breakaway Somaliland. Gunfire hit a plane in Aden as a tanker was approached offshore.

INTELLIGENCE. The incidents in Yemen could be pirates or militias unrelated to the

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Hello from a sweltering Paris,

I would like to warmly invite you to our next private roundtable discussions, to be held online on:

• Monday 6 July 2026 (US/Europe) / Tuesday 7 July 2026 (Asia–Pac)
  5:00 PM EDT · 11:00 PM CEST · 7:00 AM AEST (Tue)

• Tuesday 7 July 2026
  4:00 AM EDT · 10:00 AM CEST · 6:00 PM AEST

As always, we will cover the major geopolitical developments of the past month and explore what they mean for businesses, financial markets and the wider international system.

This is a chance to speak directly with Michael Feller, our Chief Strategist and principal author of Geopolitical Dispatch, and me about the major topics in international affairs, as well as our expectations and forecasts for the month ahead.

Each month, we host a live one-hour session, with the first half dedicated to a panel-style discussion and the second half reserved for off-the-record Q&A with fellow readers.

These discussions are available exclusively to paid subscribers to Geopolitical Dispatch. Paid subscribers can register using the links below. If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can upgrade now to unlock the registration links and secure your place.

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We would be delighted to have you join us.

Best wishes

Damien

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Intentionally or not, Trump sets Vance up to fail.

• BRITAIN. Starmer faces a leadership contest.

• NATO. The alliance dices with death by a thousand cuts.

• COLOMBIA. ‘El Tigre’ wins by a whisker.

• BOLIVIA. The president tries to negotiate out of an impasse.

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IRAN. Palmed off

Intentionally or not, Trump sets Vance up to fail.

Oil fell after talks between JD Vance and Iranian negotiators concluded, with mediators saying a roadmap had been agreed toward a final deal within 60 days. Talks earlier appeared to collapse amid threats from Israel and Donald Trump.

INTELLIGENCE. Technical negotiations in Switzerland will now begin amid reports the US has agreed to sanctions relief and reconstruction planning. It’s a different story in Washington, where Trump has threatened his own tolls and even, via Fox News, to assassinate Iran’s delegation. This may be Vance and Trump playing good and bad cop, but it could also be Trump’s way to palm off an unpopular deal to his deputy, while retaining the option to blow it all up.

FOR BUSINESS. Having Vance lead negotiations lets Trump deflect blame for surrender while enjoying lower oil prices. And if the deal goes bad, whether due to intransigence from Iran, Israel, the US, or Hezbollah – or political blowback to the terms – he can reset the clock. Yet refilling oil reserves, which would give Trump such options, will take longer than 60 days. For now, Iran still holds most of the leverage. Playing Vance may be clever, but it’s still weak.

BRITAIN. Taking Keir off business

Starmer faces a leadership contest.

Allies of Keir Starmer said the prime minister was mulling "political realities" amid expectations he would concede to a leadership fight today, whether he would join it or not. Trump claimed Starmer would resign, having “failed badly”.

INTELLIGENCE. It doesn’t take US intelligence, or a presidential tweet, to know that

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Hello,

In this edition of Week Signals:

• IN REVIEW. Lessons mis-learned; the problem of too many objectives; where leverage is a trap.

• UP AHEAD. Elections in Colombia; negotiations in Lebanon; diplomacy in South Asia; inflation in the US.

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The Week in Review: Part II

The week began with a cage match on the White House lawn. It ended with algae in the reflecting pool. Washington DC, the Third Rome, lost bitterly to the Persians. We don’t know if the French have a word for Schadenfreude, but Emmanuel Macron’s recommendation that Donald Trump sign his 14-point MoU at Versailles, complete with reparations, seemed the pièce de résistance.

By all accounts other than the president’s (including Wikipedia), the US has lost the war in the Gulf. Traffic will hopefully increase in the Strait of Hormuz, barring interruptions from Israel and Lebanon (see the Week Ahead, below), but Iran is set to retain de facto control of Hormuz, be paid $300 billion in reconstruction funds (from where or whom it’s not yet clear), and keep its missile cities in Kermanshah, Isfahan and Lorestan. Perhaps it will also keep its uranium.

We covered some of the longer-term implications last week. This week, we wanted to cover a potential shorter-term response as Trump’s team goes into damage control.

No matter how you spin it, the Iran deal looks horrible for the US. Whether you compare it to Suez or Vietnam, it’s presumably going to crush the Republican Party at the midterms. Yet political memories are often short. Many Americans, like their president, are easily distractible. Lower gas prices over a long, hot El Niño summer will make the events of February to June seem distant. And just like the Epstein saga faded from view, and the Minneapolis killings before it, will voters even be thinking about Iran in November, or could they be thinking about Cuba instead?

If Trump’s decision to go into Iran was influenced by his success in Venezuela, it stands to reason that his failure in Iran could be followed by an attack on a far weaker, far closer, and more domestically salient target. Rather than be another Jimmy Carter (or Herbert Hoover), Trump could be a more successful version of John F Kennedy, through a successful Bay of Pigs. Without a Soviet Union to contend with, surely taking Havana will be a piece of cake?

My colleague Oscar Martin outlines the scenarios.

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Tehran starts to toy with Washington’s desperation.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv’s efforts to impress Brussels and Moscow risk stalling.

• EUROPE. CHINA. Caution on trade suggests a weak response.

• BRITAIN. A blow against Reform, and Starmer, in Makerfield.

• NIGER. Another attack on an airport full of uranium.

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IRAN. Taking Burgenstock

Tehran starts to toy with Washington’s desperation.

JD Vance cancelled his trip to Burgenstock, Switzerland for preliminary peace negotiations after Iran warned it might resume a full blockade on Hormuz due to fighting in Lebanon. Vance earlier slammed Israel’s “freakout” over the deal.

INTELLIGENCE. The ceasefire MoU, only just signed in Versailles, already looks as inglorious as that venue’s other accords. Iran has the US’s measure. Sensing Vance’s dislike of Israel (”Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel”) and Trump’s dislike of war (“we run out of reserves at about four weeks”; “I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe”) it will judge a gold-plated MoU may become a gold-plated treaty.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump parked the hard parts of the negotiation for the MoU’s 60-day ceasefire. Judging by day one, Iran may get everything it wants, in addition to its wins in the initial document. That may not just mean a return to a JCPOA-style nuclear deal, but an even weaker agreement, plus the US’s military exit from the Gulf. Israel and GOP grandees will hate it, but having shown their very weak hand, it’s not just Trump but Vance now tied to the surrender.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The numbers don't Lyman

Kyiv’s efforts to impress Brussels and Moscow risk stalling.

A 500-drone strike pm Moscow blew a 100-foot lid off an oil tank as EU leaders met in Brussels. Volodymyr Zelensky urged Ukraine’s expedited accession as the bloc’s best security guarantee. Members were divided over talks with Russia.

INTELLIGENCE. The strikes on Moscow were impressive but ultimately distract from

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Trump tries to spin a humiliating deal.

• INDIA. UNITED STATES. Stormy seas for the world’s big democracies.

• SOUTHEAST ASIA. RUSSIA. Putin brings back the archipelago.

• SOUTH AFRICA. Migration riots mask a different story.

• PERU. An expat-driven election win deepens domestic fissures.

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IRAN. 14-point TACO

Trump tries to spin a humiliating deal.

A ceremony in Burgenstock was cancelled after Donald Trump signed his Memorandum of Understanding with Iran prior to dinner at the Palace of Versailles. Trump said “We’re going to bomb the hell out of them if they violate the agreement.”

INTELLIGENCE. Trump probably didn’t want the symbolism of signing a deal in a resort that once hosted Jimmy Carter and was now owned by Qatar. He unlikely had time to consider the symbolism of Versailles. With the first of the MoU’s 14 points, now released, forbidding threats, it’s technically in violation, but no matter. With $300 billion pledged for reconstruction, Iran sees it as the ultimate TACO. Israel’s ambassador to the UN called it “very bad.”

FOR BUSINESS. Oil futures are at the lowest level since March. Traffic in the strait is expected to shortly resume. Structural supply gaps will take time to fill. Morgan Stanley estimates an average of $90 dated Brent between July and September. The Fed is projecting a rate hike on stubborn inflation. Still, Trump was right that the alternative was an “economic catastrophe” on par with the Great Depression, which is the most honest thing he’s said since February.

INDIA. UNITED STATES. When the going gets tough

Stormy seas for the world’s big democracies.

Trump praised Narendra Modi as a “tough negotiator” and “total killer” who “looks like an angel” after a meeting over the deaths of Indian sailors, devoid of Modi’s usual hugs. The Pentagon dropped “Indo” from the name of Pacific Command.

INTELLIGENCE. PACOM's structure still includes India in its area of responsibility, but

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. ISRAEL. Following the G7, Trump turns on Netanyahu.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky seizes upon a point of malleability.

• CUBA. Washington’s blockade pushes Havana closer to Beijing.

• BRAZIL. The former first family faces new tests.

• DR CONGO. Tshisekedi proves that matters can always get worse.

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IRAN. ISRAEL. Flip of the coin

Following the G7, Trump turns on Netanyahu.

Donald Trump said “there would be no Israel” without him, and Syria would do a better job with Hezbollah than Benjamin Netanyahu. Support for Trump within Israel dropped 23 points, a local think tank said. Strikes continued in Lebanon.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s abrupt turn may help deflect blame ahead of the release of Friday’s MoU (assuming it happens), which US media is reporting as surrender. Versions of the draft, published widely, point to $300 billion in reconstruction funds and other punitive terms. But the shift may be more due to pressure from Qatar, a big investor. Photos of a dejected-looking Marco Rubio during Trump’s G7 meeting with Qatar’s emir seem to emphasise the point.

FOR BUSINESS. Qatar, as much as Pakistan, is emerging as broker to the deal, whether reports of a separate cash-for-gas arrangement are true (Miriam Adelson’s Israel Hayom claims Trump approved the scheme). The claims feed narratives of an Israel-Qatar influence war within Washington, with Rubio and JD Vance, among others, on opposing sides. They also revive memories from 2025, when Netanyahu was made to apologise to the emir on Trump’s phone.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump card

Zelensky seizes upon a point of malleability.

Trump said Russia should "make a deal" after a "very good" meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the G7. Ukraine attacked oil infrastructure in Moscow and Krasnodar. At least four died during a Russian assault on Donetsk.

INTELLIGENCE. Sensing Trump’s renewed appetite for lopsided deals, Zelensky and

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Schrödinger’s deal is, for now, a mutual carte blanche.

• ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu once again has his back against the wall.

• GROUP OF SEVEN. The West endures, one diplomatic summit at a time.

• BRITAIN. Starmer accelerates the push against social media.

• MYANMAR. Naypyidaw reopens to the neighbours but not the world.

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IRAN. Anything is possible

Schrödinger’s deal is, for now, a mutual carte blanche.

Donald Trump said his deal with Iran was electronically signed Sunday and details would be released after Friday’s formal ceremony in Geneva. Trump said an agreement to pay Iran $300 billion was “fake news, put out by the Dumocrats”.

INTELLIGENCE. JD Vance, certainly no Dumocrat, earlier said Iran “could have access to” $300 billion, which Iranian reports say was critical to getting the IRGC to agree to a ceasefire extension. But whatever it is, a deal that continues to drive a share market rally and oil market rout remains as ephemeral as an e-signature. Several more (Iranian) ships have crossed Hormuz, and mine removal is due to begin, but at least three vessels were fired upon early Tuesday.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump says ships have started to move, but most international carriers are yet to resume transit. And even when they do, the spigots will take time to turn back on, particularly in the case of LNG where hard shutdowns and infrastructure damage could take months, if not years, to undo. US data, released Monday, meanwhile, shows the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 43-year lows. Trump will hope his claims are less fake than the Dumocrats’.

ISRAEL. LEBANON. 'til it's over

Netanyahu once again has his back against the wall.

Benjamin Netanyahu defended the war and downplayed any rifts with Trump as the opposition and ex-defence officials excoriated his “absolute failure”. Fighting continued with Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, albeit at a reduced pace.

INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu says the “struggle” is not over, and he won’t resile from

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Trump and Tehran agree to disagree, on Friday, maybe.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin eyes manoeuvre in a war of attrition.

• SWITZERLAND. Voters opt not to cap the population.

• VENEZUELA. US influence compounds, as does involvement.

• HAITI. Ahead of Guterres’s visit, security remains dire.

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IRAN. Extend and pretend

Trump and Tehran agree to disagree, on Friday, maybe.

Oil futures fell again after Pakistan said Iran and the US would sign an MoU to extend the ceasefire on Friday. Washington and Tehran continued to point to different versions of the deal. Israel struck Beirut, earning a rebuke from Donald Trump.

INTELLIGENCE. After he earlier claimed it’d be signed on Sunday, markets might have been more sceptical, but Trump has correctly judged that by continuing to dangle hope for a deal (without revealing what that exactly means), he can lower oil prices for another week. Tehran also appears happy to drag things out. Every additional week it holds out brings the US closer to a crisis in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, weighting any eventual deal further in Iran’s favour.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s need for a deal was again made plain when he slammed Benjamin Netanyahu for attacking Beirut Sunday (“no f**king judgment”) before reportedly offering Tehran sweeteners to not retaliate. As far as markets are concerned, an open strait is worth any diplomatic cost, but in the long term, ceding control to a Tehran with or without nuclear weapons makes mockery of the freedom of navigation rules that global markets ultimately rely on.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Wrong kind of breakthrough

Putin eyes manoeuvre in a war of attrition.

Trump spoke separately to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky as drone and missile strikes continued on both sides, including an attack on a UNESCO-listed monastery in Kyiv. Russian troops advanced into the city of Konstantinovka.

INTELLIGENCE. The industrial hub of Konstantinovka is part of the Donetsk "fortress

Read more

Hello,

In this edition of Week Signals:

• IN REVIEW. From 1492 to 14 points of capitulation; the limits of sea power; Suez and Constantinople.

• UP AHEAD. Votes in Switzerland and the UK, meetings in the Alps, Beijing and Washington.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy - a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning and geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations, and GD Corporate Memberships. Learn more or upgrade for the full edition below

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The Week in Review: The art of surrender

The week began with an escalation in the Gulf. It ended with a ceasefire extension deal that’s “never been closer” in the words of Iran’s foreign minister, not just Donald Trump. Oil futures are back to levels last seen in early March. There is talk of JD Vance flying to Geneva on Sunday to sign an MoU that could eventually end the war.

This is not our first rodeo and it’s good to stay sceptical on such things. Trump has declared a near deal at least 39 times. Iran is not exactly trustworthy. And Israel seems to be openly opposed to anything that undermines its stated aims. Yet just in case Trump does take the loss this weekend – and that the hype was more than just a ploy to smooth the path for Elon Musk’s IPO – it’s worth examining what it could mean, beyond a further collapse in oil prices and another share market spike.

As of writing, only Iran has presented its version of the mooted memorandum, which – adding to our scepticism – Trump has repudiated as “pathetic” and “very dishonourable”. Yet the US has not publicised its own version of the draft (should one exist), and with other parties, such as Pakistan, seeming to confirm a “final text”, we can only go with what we (think) we know.

In short, it’s another 14-point surrender document for the US. The unfreezing of $24 billion in Iranian assets, even if paid electronically via the UAE – rather than on JCPOA-style pallets of US banknotes – will be seen by many as a reward for Iran’s belligerence. A proposed $300 billion reconstruction plan, as US non-military discretionary budgets continue to be trimmed, will be seen as a tribute offering. Allowing Iranian (and potentially Omani) “arrangements” for the Strait may not necessarily mean tolls, but it would put the US’s erstwhile Gulf allies in a weaker long-term position and invalidate the entire point of the US Fifth Fleet and maritime law. The clauses on Lebanon and uranium would simply be unacceptable for Israel, not to mention most of the Republican Party.

Should this document, or a version of it, be signed, it signals not only a repudiation of Trump’s war in the Gulf but of Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career. More broadly, it potentially signals an end to not only US predominance in the Middle East, but US predominance in Eurasia. Like Ukraine breaking the myth of Russian invincibility on land, it would mean Iran has broken the myth of American invincibility at sea. And the document, if signed, would – while providing a short-term boost for markets – would not only be another nail in Pax Americana’s coffin, but that of the entire Western project. My colleague Oscar Martin explains.

Read more

Hello from Paris,

Earlier this week, Michael and I hosted a private roundtable discussion with paid subscribers, where we assessed the latest developments, and our forecasts, for the Ukraine and Iran wars, Cuba, and Xi Jinping’s hosting of Presidents Trump and Putin in Beijing.

The discussion covered what we are watching, what we think matters most, and how we see these issues developing over the coming weeks and months - and where our views differ from market sentiment.

You may find the recording and transcript below.

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Tehran plays Trump as Trump plays the traders.

• INDIA. Washington’s reconciliation with Delhi hits a shoal.

• EUROPE. CHINA. A bargain for what’s left of the trading system.

• BRITAIN. A resignation makes waves beyond Westminster.

• ARGENTINA. Quick goals wear thin against Milei’s mistakes.

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IRAN. 39th time lucky

Tehran plays Trump as Trump plays the traders.

Oil fell sharply after Donald Trump declared a deal had been struck with Iran, following earlier threats to take Kharg Island and hit Iran “very hard.” Iran denied the claims. Israel said it was not party to a deal. Drones were shot down over Hormuz.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump may have sought to restore deterrence after Iran downed a US helicopter, but his latest TACO suggests he still wants a deal more than Tehran. Luckily for him, markets share his low impulse control and have rallied into the day of SpaceX’s IPO and ahead of Sunday’s cage fight on the White House lawn, oblivious to the fact that performative violence can go two ways and that, having declared a looming deal 39 times, Trump lacks an exit.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s ability to keep crying wolf opens new theories of behavioural finance. Still, he can’t continue the escalation-to-deal cycle forever before markets fade the news. This inflection could happen when physical oil stocks reach crisis levels, or when growing tensions with Israel lead to a complete break in strategy. It could also happen when more professional commodities buyers return to an irrational futures market they’ve been waiting out.

INDIA. Ships in the night

Washington's reconciliation with Delhi hits a shoal.

Delhi demanded an end to strikes on commercial vessels after the US fired missiles into a third tanker crewed by Indian nationals. An attack had earlier killed three Indian sailors. Narendra Modi was criticised for calling Trump a “friend”.

INTELLIGENCE. Attending next week’s G7 in France, Modi is due to meet Trump for

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. The US and Israel are lured further into the trap.

• UNITED STATES. Trump hangs tough on a rate cut.

• MEXICO. CANADA. As the World Cup opens, the trade games begin.

• CUBA. Washington seems unsure of its objectives.

• COLOMBIA. Second-round interference raises tensions.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

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IRAN. Self-defence the worst offence

The US and Israel are lured further into the trap.

Tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran continued for a second day as Israel killed 17 in Lebanon. Tehran rejected Donald Trump’s claims he had “secretly” helped 100 million barrels of oil exit Hormuz, saying the strait was closed.

INTELLIGENCE. Industry data suggests transfers remain at a fraction of normal levels, even if some ships are getting through with assistance from the US or Iran. For all the bombast, Trump’s quagmire is no closer to a resolution and is probably getting worse. Militarily unwilling to escalate beyond “self-defence” strikes and politically unable to accept Iran’s terms, he risks simply dragging out the war to a point where oil prices, due to stockpile attrition, get even higher.

FOR BUSINESS. Iran will judge it can last longer in a blockade than Trump, who must eventually answer the market and the US voter. Likewise, Netanyahu, who faces elections this year, can’t hold out indefinitely, despite higher public support. With a diplomatic offramp distant – Pakistan has moved to the background; China appears to be in no hurry – Trump may be forced to escalate. Nuclear-capable B-52 bombers have passed Saudi Arabia with transponders on.

UNITED STATES. Inflation in the morning

Trump hangs tough on a rate cut.

Pundits slammed Trump for saying “I love the inflation” after CPI growth hit 4.2% in May, a three-year high. Gold hit a six-month low amid growing anticipation for a Fed hike. The Bank of Japan’s governor was hospitalised for a liver operation.

INTELLIGENCE. The Fed's new chair, Kevin Warsh, is unlikely to hike rates when the

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Further attacks belie the market’s narrative.

• ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu and Hezbollah aren’t ready to quit.

• BRITAIN. The far right’s ascent could undermine it.

• CHINA. TAIWAN. Taipei is caught in a foreign policy vortex.

• PAKISTAN. After misses in Tehran, tensions in Kashmir and Kabul.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

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IRAN. In a sling

Further attacks belie the market's narrative.

Tehran claimed strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan after Donald Trump ordered retaliation for the downing of an Apache helicopter near Hormuz. Oil rose then fell again amid reports of "dark transits" through the strait.

INTELLIGENCE. The helicopter was allegedly part of quiet US efforts to help vessels escape Iran’s blockade. Yet the aggregate flows are still a trickle compared to pre-war levels, and lower oil prices are more a result of record stockpile releases. US inventories fell for an eighth week, the American Petroleum Institute said Tuesday, while government data shows stocks at 2003 lows. Oklahoma’s Cushing is tipped to hit its 20-million-barrel operating floor next week.

FOR BUSINESS. Cushing, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate crude, is the centre of world oil pricing. With a total capacity of 90 million barrels, its fall to 20 million risks a disaster that Trump won’t be able to jawbone his way out of. Iran, whose own storage levels at Kharg have been subject of similar speculation, knows this, and will likely time its response to any future attacks accordingly. Fighting may have ceased for now, but the clock keeps ticking.

ISRAEL. LEBANON. To be continued

Netanyahu and Hezbollah aren't ready to quit.

Israel commenced new strikes on Tyre despite an ostensible truce and warnings from Washington, Tehran and Beirut. Trump questioned “does he want to continue?” when asked whether Benjamin Netanyahu should run for re-election.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s ties with Netanyahu were never smooth, but seldom have

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Attacks cease, but Hormuz remains blocked.

• THE CAUCASUS. Putin adjusts his approach to former satellites.

• GERMANY. FRANCE. A jet program dies, but the defence boom lives.

• NORTH KOREA. Xi’s visit is about primacy, not priority.

• PERU. Keiko Fujimori risks losing once again.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

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IRAN. A pause, not peace

Attacks cease, but Hormuz remains blocked.

Israel and Iran said they would pause attacks “for now” after Donald Trump said he had warned Benjamin Netanyahu “you will be on your own very soon.” Trump said the US would declare “total victory” within two weeks. Oil futures fell.

INTELLIGENCE. Despite the evidence to the contrary, markets are once again pricing a happy end to the conflict. Trump’s remarks mirror those at the end of last year’s Twelve-Day War, when he called time on Iran and Israel. But today, the US has not struck a conclusive blow, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and the IDF remains ensconced in Lebanon. Trump’s strategy has been to put a ceiling on the price of oil, but in doing so, he’s given Iran strategic licence.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump is managing short-term oil markets while giving Iran long-term options. Tehran is less likely to relinquish its control of Hormuz while it faces fewer risks of response from Israel and Washington. Iran’s escalation dominance is also underscored by the Houthis’ declaration of Bab-el-Mandeb’s closure to Israeli-linked shipping (with the stated option for a full blockade). Iran has called Trump’s bluff, giving it more room to set terms for a settlement.

THE CAUCASUS. Armenia and dangerous

Putin adjusts his approach to former satellites.

Armenia’s EU-friendly Civil Contract was declared winner of Sunday’s vote, though two pro-Russia parties did better than expected and will enter parliament. Russia said Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had no “monopoly” on Armenia’s future.

INTELLIGENCE. Russia will use the opposition to slow Armenia's pivot to the West

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Just a quick reminder that our monthly Geopolitical Dispatch roundtable discussions will take place on 8 and 9 June.

Each month, Michael and I step back from the daily news cycle to discuss the developments we believe matter most, the trends we are watching most closely, and the issues likely to shape the month ahead.

Among other topics, we expect t…

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Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Netanyahu defies Trump with an attack on Tehran.

• RED SEA. A Bab-el-Mandeb blockade becomes more plausible.

• INDIAN OCEAN. A plan for Washington to buy the Chagos is floated.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. His letter ignored, Zelensky seeks new keys to the Kremlin.

• UNITED STATES. Tech stocks brace amid pleas for a rate cut.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

Learn more

IRAN. Shots fired

Netanyahu defies Trump with an attack on Tehran.

Israel struck targets across Iran early Monday after Iran sent missiles into Northern Israel in retaliation for an earlier strike on Beirut. Prior to Israel’s reprisals, Donald Trump said that Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to not retaliate.

INTELLIGENCE. Having told the Financial Times and others just hours before that “I call the shots” and Netanyahu “won’t have any choice” but to accept a deal allegedly still being worked on, Israel’s moves are humiliating for the president. Comments by Marco Rubio that “only stupid countries don’t shoot back when you’re shot at” emphasise the sense that Trump has lost control. As the war passes its 100^th day, the US is increasingly fighting on two fronts.

FOR BUSINESS. Oil futures rose 4% in choppy trade. Reports Iran has again struck US bases in Saudi Arabia are unconfirmed. The Strait of Hormuz is no closer to opening. But even if Trump is livid with Netanyahu, he is unlikely to just pack up and leave, as some traders suspect. Having come this far, Trump will be minded to escalate. Not doing so would confirm Iran’s escalation dominance. Not backing Israel, even if popular, could destroy US credibility.

RED SEA. Yemen at work

A Bab-el-Mandeb blockade becomes more plausible.

The Houthis launched missiles into Tel Aviv Monday after earlier praising Iran’s “heroic military operation” and pledging solidarity with Hezbollah. A senior adviser to Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated warnings to block the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.

INTELLIGENCE. The Houthis have blocked the Bab-el-Mandeb before. And though

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