51st past the post
Canada, the US, Ukraine, Russia, Spain, Portugal, and Yemen.
The five things you need to know today:
CANADA. Carney sticks it to Trump but now must face the hard part.
UNITED STATES. After tariffs and DOGE, Trump's tax cuts look doomed.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin seeks to string Trump along and tie up Zelensky.
SPAIN. PORTUGAL. A grid failure becomes a political Rorschach test.
YEMEN. The Red Sea becomes a Pentagon quagmire.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
CANADA. Elbows to the top
Carney sticks it to Trump but now must face the hard part.
Mark Carney's Liberal Party appeared to have won 167 seats, results early Tuesday morning showed, putting it within a whisker of a rare majority. Carney said Canada's old relationship with the US was "over". The Conservatives conceded.
INTELLIGENCE. A majority would have put Carney in a stronger negotiating position with Donald Trump, who urged Canadians the day before to "elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half" (i.e., himself), but by Ottawa's standards, the result was still emphatic. The socialist New Democratic Party has been reduced from 24 to a likely 7 seats; Bloc Québécois from 33 to 23; Green from 2 to 1. But the Conservatives went from 120 to 145.
FOR BUSINESS. A first-time minority prime minister, Carney effectively faces two oppositions. But assuming the NDP falls in line, he should at least have no problem in legislating whatever he negotiates with Trump. Still, as a former central banker, he’ll be aware the market gets a vote. High-cost election pledges could damage Canada’s credit rating. A prolonged US trade war could crash the economy. Alternative partners, like China, will want their pound of flesh.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
UNITED STATES. Dearth and taxes
After tariffs and DOGE, Trump's tax cuts look doomed.
Congress returned after a two-week break Monday. Scott Bessent said a tax deal may be ready by 4 July. Donald Trump said income tax could be reduced, "maybe even completely eliminated," due to tariffs and the "external revenue service.”
INTELLIGENCE. Tariffs, which Trump seems increasingly hesitant to introduce in full, would need to rise to 100% on