A big load of bull

The US, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Albania, and the Philippines.

Dying Bull, Pablo Picasso, 1934, oil on canvas, Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Bessent is at the top of the pile, for now.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump goads Putin and Zelensky toward a meeting.

• TURKEY. The PKK’s disarmament won’t guarantee peace alone.

• ALBANIA. A reckoning for Eastern Europe’s populist wave.

• THE PHILIPPINES. A surge in the south bolsters the Duterte clan.

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UNITED STATES. A run while he can

Bessent is at the top of the pile, for now.

The S&P 500 hit a two-month high and the Nasdaq 100 entered a new bull market Monday after the US and China paused their trade war. Japan's finance minister said he wanted to meet Scott Bessent next week to discuss currency prices.

INTELLIGENCE. After the deal with China, the US's other partners are beating a path to Bessent, seen as the Trump official most open to negotiation. Having broken the Bank of England with George Soros in 1992, Bessent knows the fragile interdependencies of the economic system. The alternative is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who represents a more isolationist wing. Trade adviser Peter Navarro, even more hardline, appears to have been sidelined.

FOR BUSINESS. The White House appears to have ceded trade decisions to Bessent, but nothing should be seen as permanent. As Bessent's star has risen, so has that of Stephen Miller. While not an economic aide, the MAGA architect of Trump's migration policies is frontrunner to be National Security Adviser. In such a role, he could be the most influential Trump-whisperer since Steve Bannon was senior counsellor in 2016-17. Autarky could be great again.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Talking Turkey

Trump goads Putin and Zelensky toward a meeting.

Donald Trump offered Monday to join Volodymyr Zelensky this Thursday in Istanbul, adding pressure on Vladimir Putin to attend. The Kremlin did not comment but said it had spoken to Turkey about holding direct talks there with Ukraine.

INTELLIGENCE. Putin proposed direct negotiations to sidestep US and European pressure for a 30-day ceasefire.