A bridge too far
Iran, Qatar, Japan, Hungary, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump gives an off-ramp, but is there anyone left to take it?
QATAR. Helium is the next molecule to risk the global economy.
JAPAN. Takaichi buys time with minerals and investments.
HUNGARY. Despite the polls, Orban still has an advantage.
UNITED STATES. Early warnings mount for the dollar era.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Blink and they'll miss it
Trump gives an off-ramp, but is there anyone left to take it?
Oil prices eased after Israel said it would “hold off” on further energy strikes at Donald Trump’s request and as Trump said there would be no boots on the ground. Scott Bessent said the US might remove sanctions on Iranian oil at sea.
INTELLIGENCE. Benjamin Netanyahu seemed chastened Thursday, saying Israel was a “model ally” and the war would be over “faster than people think”, but a fresh wave of attacks was launched Friday, following a hit on Israel’s refinery in Haifa. Trump’s own de-escalatory signals were clearer. Yet with many of the regime’s pragmatists killed, and with hardline survivors now sensing their enemies’ weakness, Iran is unlikely to let the US or Israel off the hook.
FOR BUSINESS. Hardliners in the UAE and Saudi Arabia also want the job to be finished. While few in the Gulf initially welcomed the war, most now fear a wounded but resilient Iran – able to continue coercion unimpeded – as much as a continuation of conflict, despite its costs to export revenues and ongoing questions over interceptor stocks. The Pentagon has meanwhile said the war isn’t over as it seeks $200 billion. Riyadh says oil may reach $180 after April.
QATAR. He who pays the piper
Helium is the next molecule to risk the global economy.
Iranian attacks on the Ras Laffan LNG hub had reduced Qatar's export capacity by 17% for up to five years, QatarEnergy told Reuters. Gas prices remained high despite moderating oil, as plans to seize Kharg Island were outlined in the press.
INTELLIGENCE. Qatar is expected to lose $20 billion in annual revenue as two of its