Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. With Hormuz at an impasse, oil finds its level.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump blames Kyiv as Moscow ups the threats.
BRITAIN. Secessionist politics stumbles into a bigger fight.
BRICS. Modi makes the best of a difficult summit.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. OpenAI shelves its IPO over safety.
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IRAN. Flowing in the wind
With Hormuz at an impasse, oil finds its level.
Brent climbed back above $108 after Oman said talks with Iran on Hormuz were postponed, reportedly at Saudi Arabia’s bidding, and Donald Trump said the US might “stay and keep the oil”. The Saudi East-West pipeline was shut for repairs.
INTELLIGENCE. After its key outlet for 4% of global supplies was closed after attacks, Riyadh can be forgiven for not wishing to engage with Tehran. Yet unless the US comes to its rescue, Saudi Arabia will need to talk with Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen, which now effectively control the southern end of the Red Sea. Trump says the Houthis have asked him not to intervene and “everything’s going to work out fine”. He may as well be taking orders from Khamenei.
FOR BUSINESS. Gulf crude may soon flow again on a deal with Iran and the Houthis, but it won’t be on US terms, or at prices likely to give Trump midterms relief. Refined products are meanwhile at record highs, with US diesel at $6.20 on average ahead of the northern harvest. Reports of Trump using the Defense Production Act to lift refining may be too late for the political and economic crunch. Utilisation rates are at 98%. Many refineries are due for maintenance.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. One-track mind
Trump blames Kyiv as Moscow ups the threats.
Trump said Ukraine “has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia”, as the shortage “isn’t done by the Middle East.” Russia hit a passenger train near Poland on a line that minutes earlier had been used by Boris Johnson and Carl Bildt.
INTELLIGENCE. Johnson, Bildt and ex-CIA chief David Petraeus were among the