A chill wind

Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Afghanistan, Argentina, and the Gen Z protests.

Winter in Donbas, Ivan Kirichenko, 1964, oil on canvas, private collection.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin accelerates towards winter.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. The most fragile of ceasefires begins.

• AFGHANISTAN. Pakistan hits back as the Taliban branches out.

• ARGENTINA. An economic rescue could run into political trouble.

• GENERATION Z. Protesters look to topple two more governments.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Stepping on the gas

Putin accelerates towards winter.

Much of Kyiv lost power Friday after Russia launched drone and missile attacks across the city and nearby energy infrastructure. Volodymyr Zelensky claimed Russia had lost up to 20% of its fuel supplies due to Ukrainian attacks.

INTELLIGENCE. As winter approaches, like previous years, both sides are targeting power stations and refineries. Ukraine’s strikes have been precise and likely aided by Western intelligence. Chokepoints that Russia will find hard to replace, such as desalting units, have been taken offline. Russia has been less particular, but as Stalin is attributed to have said, quantity has a quality of its own. An estimated 60% of Ukraine’s gas production has now been destroyed.

FOR BUSINESS. Moscow claims not to have shut the door on diplomacy, but as relations cool again with Washington, it is accelerating its pace of attack. Incremental gains are being made on the frontline. A partial evacuation has been ordered for Kramatorsk. Ukraine’s best hope is to increase the economic costs on Russia’s civilians, in the hope that pressure rises for change, but the results have been mixed. New long-range ‘Flamingo’ missiles are being intercepted.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Born in breach

The most fragile of ceasefires begins.

Israel ratified a ceasefire Friday as Hamas said it had “received guarantees” the war had ended “completely.” Dozens were killed ahead of the announcements. Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti was allegedly taken off an exchange list.

INTELLIGENCE. As Donald Trump makes a final push for a Nobel Prize, the situation