A house divided

The US, the UK, Vietnam, Israel, Palestine, and Argentina.

Budget Balancing Bill, Clifford Berryman, The Washington Evening Star, 3 April 1932, National Archives, Washington DC.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Trump’s bill advances against the odds.

• BRITAIN. Gilt yields spike after a backbench revolt.

• VIETNAM. Hanoi takes the plunge on US levies.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu continues to mix messages.

• ARGENTINA. Milei keeps inheriting old problems.

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UNITED STATES. Big beautiful break

Trump’s bill advances against the odds.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act advanced early Thursday for a final House vote at 8am after a six-hour internal revolt. Moderates and ultra-conservatives complained about being given only 24 hours to understand Senate amendments.

INTELLIGENCE. Saving another surprise, Trump looks likely to achieve his 4 July deadline. He will use the victory as a cudgel against former holdouts ahead of mid-term primaries, but any negative bond market reaction to the bigger deficit the bill entails may, in time, prove the achievement pyrrhic. In the meanwhile, a bullish stock market points to another day of record gains, which, ahead of likely strong job numbers, Trump will also claim as a personal win.

FOR BUSINESS. As it stands, the bill will neither deliver the budget cuts necessary to crimp the deficit, nor the stimulatory impulse required to grow out of it. The relief at avoiding another short-term debt ceiling showdown may only be temporary. The GOP has also seldom seemed more divided. Trump's threats to primary against those blocking his way may have worked tactically but it won’t guarantee better fiscal or legislative outcomes in the future.

Ahead of President Trump’s 9 July trade deal deadline, we have outlined four scenarios for what could come next. We would love to hear your views.

BRITAIN. Wild wild Westminster

Gilt yields spike after a backbench revolt.

Keir Starmer gave Rachel Reeves his full backing late Wednesday after the chancellor cried in parliament, which markets interpreted as a leadership split. Keir Starmer had earlier backed down from welfare cuts after a backbench revolt.

INTELLIGENCE. During a raucous debate, Starmer sidestepped questions on whether