A petrodollar short
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, China, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, and France.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump and Tehran have different reasons to bring in China.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. A spectrum widens between invasion and recognition.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Military pressure resumes amid US summit doubts.
INDIA. PAKISTAN. Regional chaos feeds fuel for communal conflicts.
FRANCE. National Rally moves beyond its city limits.
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IRAN. Dividing the waters
Trump and Tehran have different reasons to bring in China.
Donald Trump called on third countries, including China, to secure the Strait of Hormuz while the US bombs “the hell out of the shoreline.” Tehran said the strait was not closed and it still enjoyed good “military cooperation” with Beijing.
INTELLIGENCE. Iran has let a handful of ships pass Hormuz, notably two cargoes to India and several to China. While indiscriminate sea mining could stop all trade, for now, Iran appears to be choosing who can pass, with part of its price being the use of RMB, testing a pillar of US hegemony: the dollar pricing of oil. The other pillar, maritime security, has already been detonated by Trump himself, effectively declaring impotence in the Gulf and a need for allied help.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s claim to have “destroyed 100% of Iran’s military “ except its ability to “send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close-range missile somewhere” may be grimly amusing, but it won’t mean anyone will help. Trump’s most stalwart allies in Tokyo and Canberra have effectively said no. Brussels is considering, but amid German and French caution, threats against NATO (which faces a “very bad” future if it doesn’t) won’t move the dial.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. All options
A spectrum widens between invasion and recognition.
Israel denied it was in diplomatic talks with Lebanon, or that it was running out of interceptors, as Jerusalem and Beirut struggled with another weekend of rocket fire from Hezbollah. Around 15% of Lebanon’s population fled their homes.
INTELLIGENCE. Israel is considering the mobilisation of up to 450,000 in preparation