Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
IRAN. Trump masks one potential attack with another.
ISRAEL. GERMANY. A spy scandal risks an EU lifeline.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Stalled on the front, Putin tries the rear.
JAPAN. Scandal and uncertainty encourage strategic hedging.
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UNITED STATES. Mixed messages
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
Donald Trump said his rallies were “saving” the Republican Party as he continued a tour of deep-red states. The S&P 500 closed at a record high, ignoring high Treasury yields and oil prices. Trump told voters to watch for a “midterm surprise”.
INTELLIGENCE. Campaign stops in states like Kansas and Nebraska would suggest these too are in play, but it could also be due to swing state candidates wanting to keep the president far away. Alternatively, in Trump world, it could just be because he loves America and America loves him (despite a 32% approval rating). The dissonance is reflected in markets, where tech stocks are climbing higher on a rebuilding IPO fever even as the rest of the economy sinks.
FOR BUSINESS. With doubt heaped on polls, the press, and prediction markets, both Trump and the Democrats can campaign in an echo chamber. Yet harder data, like energy prices and national debt levels, seldom lie. Both look to be stretched further into the midterms as new spending promises are made, and a solution on Iran is delayed. Trump’s pledge at a recent rally to “have some big surprises coming up in a few weeks” could simply mean more of the same.
IRAN. Bad reactor
Trump masks one potential attack with another.
The White House denied Trump said Iran should “take out” Los Angeles, after he argued high oil prices were a “small price” for security. A prominent DC think tank claimed “significant renewed activity” at Iran’s Minzadehei nuclear facility.
INTELLIGENCE. Claims Trump was encouraging Iran to bomb LA with a hypothetical