A truce stranger than fiction
Iran, Armenia, the US, the Quad, and North Korea.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The ceasefire barely holds amid a test on who’ll surrender.
ARMENIA. A flirtation with the West upsets Moscow and Tehran.
UNITED STATES. MAGA purity could shave it votes in the heartland.
THE QUAD. The Indo-Pacific strategy succumbs to low expectations.
NORTH KOREA. Singapore’s foreign minister visits Pyongyang.
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IRAN. Still fighting the last war
The ceasefire barely holds amid a test on who'll surrender.
Tehran said strikes in Bandar Abbas were a “gross violation” of the ceasefire as Washington continued to flag prospects for a deal “in a few days”. Oil rose then fell again on conjecture around negotiating parameters, including on frozen funds.
INTELLIGENCE. Optimists have pointed to a report in Iranian media that the release of $24 billion is the “final” sticking point. Pessimists have looked to a statement by Mojtaba Khamenei that “’Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’ will be the slogans of the Islamic nation”. Yet a sceptic may see the two as not irreconcilable, but as signs that Tehran’s hardliners want to nix a deal via conditions that will be anathema to Washington. It’s otherwise a play for more time.
FOR BUSINESS. In hiding and backed to the wall, Khamenei doesn’t so much want to win as to see Donald Trump lose. Getting the US to send cash will be a humiliation greater than the closure of Hormuz. And while this may invite escalation, there’ll be a calculation that, like previous strikes, it may not last. Iran can also blame Israel for any return to fighting. Strikes in Lebanon – notwithstanding truce-related promises – are increasing as the IDF pushes north.
ARMENIA. Caucasus belli
A flirtation with the West upsets Moscow and Tehran.
Marco Rubio signed several memoranda with his counterpart in Yerevan, including a framework deal on a transit corridor along the Iranian border. Russia said it would raise Armenia’s EU ambitions with others in the Eurasian Economic Union.
INTELLIGENCE. The EEU meets in Kazakhstan today. Vladimir Putin will attend,