Abraham’s knot
Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Canada, the DRC, and Senegal.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Linking the war to the accords shows progress, and impasse.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kaliningrad looms as a new locus of the war.
CANADA. Carney warns against an Albertan Brexit moment.
DR CONGO. Fear and panic outpace the Ebola response.
SENEGAL. The government’s ousting complicates IMF negotiations.
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IRAN. No sacrifice
Linking the war to the accords shows progress, and impasse.
Oil rebounded after hitting a two-week low when the US attacked IRGC boats and missile sites at Bandar Abbas. Donald Trump earlier said Iran's uranium would be turned over and all parties to the conflict would join the Abraham Accords.
INTELLIGENCE. Including the accords as part of the deal indicates there still may be a deal to be done. Negotiators were in Qatar at the time of the Bandar Abbas strikes. Trump is trying to sell what looks like capitulation as a win to Benjamin Netanyahu and hawks in Congress. Grand bargains occasionally work to mask a compromise, but in this case, the remedy is worth less than the sum of its parts, assuming the latest events don’t mean it’s completely off.
FOR BUSINESS. Pakistan has already said no to what Trump is calling an “unparalleled” deal. Saudi Arabia might have joined the accords years ago if it weren’t for Israel’s ongoing strikes on Gaza. And based on what’s known about Trump’s alleged plan, Riyadh would hardly accept Tehran’s dominance of the Gulf for the patina of ties with Tel Aviv. Netanyahu, for his part, seems unwilling to meet halfway. He has ordered the escalation of strikes against Hezbollah.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Exclave on the breach
Kaliningrad looms as a new locus of the war.
Flight restrictions were temporarily introduced at Kaliningrad’s airport as drones entered the enclave’s airspace for the first time in the war. Kaliningrad was being used to spoof GPS signals and send drones into NATO territories, media said.
INTELLIGENCE. Russia’s Baltic exclave has long been viewed as a potential tripwire