Abraham’s sacrifice

Israel, Syria, the US, Brazil, the UK, Germany, and the Caucasus.

Abraham's Sacrifice of Isaac, Mato Celestin Medović, 1895, oil on canvas, National Museum of Modern Art, Zagreb.

The five things you need to know today:

• ISRAEL. SYRIA. Regional peace is placed in graver doubt.

• UNITED STATES. Trump suggests then denies he’ll sack the Fed’s chair.

• BRAZIL. Washington’s attacks give new life to Lula.

• BRITAIN. GERMANY. An improbable pair join forces.

• THE CAUCASUS. Armenia looks to China in a crowded field.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in 150 countries.

ISRAEL. SYRIA. Load to Damascus

Regional peace is placed in graver doubt.

Israel bombed Syria's defence headquarters Wednesday, as Israeli Druze joined local fighting in the southeast. Marco Rubio said all sides had de-escalated. A Houthi missile was launched from Yemen. A US-run oilfield was attacked in Iraq.

INTELLIGENCE. The US is urgently trying to stop another war. Syria was allegedly close to a framework for eventually recognising Israel in a second tranche of the Abraham Accords. Talks were reportedly taking place in Azerbaijan. Yet with Ambassador Mike Huckabee attending Benjamin Netanyahu's latest graft trial, Washington is also sending mixed signals on the prime minister’s decisions. The ultra-orthodox Shas party left Netanyahu's coalition Wednesday.

FOR BUSINESS. Shas will give Netanyahu supply, but he is caught between increasingly divergent factions and aims. Bombing Damascus amid peace talks seems mad, but viewed from a siege mentality, it makes as much sense as pre-emptively bombing Tehran. Syria's president, with his own hardliners to manage, won’t see it that way. He will almost certainly delay recognition. He may even be motivated to resume hostilities, albeit from a weakened position.

Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.

UNITED STATES. Powell flay

Trump suggests then denies he’ll sack the Fed’s chair.

Donald Trump said Wednesday he was not planning to fire Jerome Powell after reports he had burnished a letter to Republicans jolted bond and currency markets. Vice President JD Vance broke a tied Senate vote on spending cuts.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump seems almost as rattled as the markets. His ratings have