Acute stress reaction
Iran, the UAE, China, the Philippines, and South Africa.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump hints at the ultimate counter-counter-response.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. The UAE differentiates itself into a target.
CHINA. Trade talks seek to shape Washington’s expectations.
PHILIPPINES. Sara Duterte is impeached for the second time.
SOUTH AFRICA. Ramaphosa’s rivals find a scandal down the back of the couch.
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IRAN. Life support
Trump hints at the ultimate counter-counter-response.
Donald Trump said Iran’s counterproposal to end the war was “garbage” and the ceasefire was “on life support”. Regional media said Trump was “inclined” to resume military operations after being briefed Monday by a “large group of generals”.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump has no good military options for ending the war. A ground attack would almost certainly lead to US casualties and reprisals across the Gulf. Naval warfare would further expend expensive missiles against cheap Iranian drones. Yet one unspeakable option was hinted at when the Sixth Fleet issued a rare press release announcing the arrival of an Ohio-class submarine in Gibraltar, capable of carrying 20 Trident II nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump has done the barfight equivalent of opening his coat to reveal a bazooka, but oil prices barely rose, with many traders still expecting TACO Tuesday. Yet while this, or a request to Beijing, to where Trump shortly departs, is more likely, he may recall the effect of an encounter with Xi Jinping in April 2017, when, as dessert was served, he left the dinner table to order a missile strike on Damascus. Nuking Tehran would be extreme, but on brand.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. Dubai of the storm
The UAE differentiates itself into a target.
The UAE carried out an attack on Iran’s Lavan Island refinery in early April, the Wall Street Journal said Monday, the first legacy English-language report of such an attack. A hijacked tanker carrying Emirati oil was taken to Somalia, Egypt said.
INTELLIGENCE. The hijacking of the M/T Eureka off Yemen earlier this month was