Adding and subtracting
The US, Iran, Israel, Palestine, the Red Sea, and Myanmar.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Yields, spreads and polls point in one direction.
IRAN. Trump only wants to TACO on his terms.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Kushner fails to bridge Hamas and Netanyahu.
RED SEA. Tensions rise on both sides of the Bab-el-Mandeb.
MYANMAR. Min Aung Hlaing gets the band back together.
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UNITED STATES. Days are numbered
Yields, spreads and polls point in one direction.
Just 33% of Americans approved of Donald Trump, an Ipsos poll found. Treasury yields rose, with 30-year bonds hitting a 19-year high of 5.3%. The US diesel refining margin over West Texas Intermediate surpassed $100 for the first time.
INTELLIGENCE. Markets are signalling alarm with a president who, even by recent standards, seems to be losing control. Whether by his physical appearance, personal attacks on the press, or threats to “bomb the shit” out of ally Oman, the diesel spread is not the only crack in the façade. US political risk is yet to visibly impact equities, but a concurrent rise in Japanese yields (and questions over South Korea) could upset the balance in technology financing.
FOR BUSINESS. Something has evidently gotten under Trump’s skin, whether Iran, the Democrats, or a medical device. Presidential polls are a poor predictor of market returns, but they can augur volatility, legislative gridlock, and midterm shifts. Refining cracks are more predictive, at least of bottlenecks, and if they hold at current levels, they could also forecast pressure on food production and road transport. What the 30-year signals is anyone’s guess.
IRAN. White flag to a bull
Trump only wants to TACO on his terms.
Tayyip Erdogan had urged Trump to pursue talks, Ankara said Tuesday, as Tehran said it would shift to a “fully offensive” posture. More ships were hit attempting to exit Hormuz. Trump said Iran needed to “put up the white flag of surrender”.
INTELLIGENCE. Having found its trump card, Iran is unlikely to surrender. The key