Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

All her persecutors overtook her between the straits

Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Russia, Cuba, Brazil, and the DRC.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Jun 17, 2026
∙ Paid
The destroyed Jerusalem (Jeremiah’s lamentations), Carl Eberdt, 1869, oil on canvas, private collection.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • IRAN. ISRAEL. Following the G7, Trump turns on Netanyahu.

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky seizes upon a point of malleability.

  • CUBA. Washington’s blockade pushes Havana closer to Beijing.

  • BRAZIL. The former first family faces new tests.

  • DR CONGO. Tshisekedi proves that matters can always get worse.


Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.

Learn more


IRAN. ISRAEL. Flip of the coin

Following the G7, Trump turns on Netanyahu.

Donald Trump said “there would be no Israel” without him, and Syria would do a better job with Hezbollah than Benjamin Netanyahu. Support for Trump within Israel dropped 23 points, a local think tank said. Strikes continued in Lebanon.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s abrupt turn may help deflect blame ahead of the release of Friday’s MoU (assuming it happens), which US media is reporting as surrender. Versions of the draft, published widely, point to $300 billion in reconstruction funds and other punitive terms. But the shift may be more due to pressure from Qatar, a big investor. Photos of a dejected-looking Marco Rubio during Trump’s G7 meeting with Qatar’s emir seem to emphasise the point.

FOR BUSINESS. Qatar, as much as Pakistan, is emerging as broker to the deal, whether reports of a separate cash-for-gas arrangement are true (Miriam Adelson’s Israel Hayom claims Trump approved the scheme). The claims feed narratives of an Israel-Qatar influence war within Washington, with Rubio and JD Vance, among others, on opposing sides. They also revive memories from 2025, when Netanyahu was made to apologise to the emir on Trump’s phone.


UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump card

Zelensky seizes upon a point of malleability.

Trump said Russia should "make a deal" after a "very good" meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the G7. Ukraine attacked oil infrastructure in Moscow and Krasnodar. At least four died during a Russian assault on Donetsk.

INTELLIGENCE. Sensing Trump’s renewed appetite for lopsided deals, Zelensky and

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2026 Geopolitical Strategy Pty Ltd · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture