All's trapped in love and war
Iran, Israel, Palestine, the UK, the EU, the US, and Brazil.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump says Iran’s in a ‘love trap’; he’s in a war trap.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. The Gaza peace plan lies in ruins.
BRITAIN. Voters lodge a protest in no particular direction.
EUROPE. UNITED STATES. Washington issues another ultimatum.
BRAZIL. Ahead of a knife-edge election, the US plays both sides.
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IRAN. Nothing's gonna change
Trump says Iran's in a 'love trap'; he's in a war trap.
Missiles were reported across the UAE early Friday after Iran attacked three US destroyers transiting Hormuz. Donald Trump said no damage was caused and Iran was stuck in a "love trap". The US said its own strikes were in "self-defence".
INTELLIGENCE. Trump claims the ceasefire holds, but there’ll come a point where the status quo becomes intolerable for the US and its allies. Already, there are reports that he only suspended earlier transits because Saudi Arabia denied use of its airspace. Iran likely judges it can extract more concessions by keeping the war going and Hormuz closed, including ahead of Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, and probably beyond. It may have one card, but it’s a trump card.
FOR BUSINESS. Estimates of Iran’s remaining launchers and missiles have been lifted to 75% and 70%, respectively. The Washington Post says the CIA believes Iran can survive at least another three to four months before facing severe hardship. Satellite imagery suggests several ships are still on fire in Hormuz. Irrespective of who is taking the greater hit, time appears to be on Tehran’s side. Brent crude prices have rebounded after falling on earlier hopes of a deal.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Back to the drawing board
The Gaza peace plan lies in ruins.
The son of the official tasked with negotiating Hamas’s disarmament died Thursday after an Israeli strike. The Board of Peace received $100 million from the UAE, Israeli media reported, the biggest sum so far despite $17 billion in pledges.
INTELLIGENCE. Stage 2 of Trump’s Gaza peace plan looks awol. The US is