Along came a spider

Ukraine, Russia, Poland, the US, China, Iran, and Afghanistan.

Illustration for the fairy tale "Teremok", Georgy Narbut, 1909, watercolour, gouache and ink on board, Peterhof State Museum-Reserve, Saint Petersburg.

The five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A big propaganda win risks a big escalation.

• POLAND. Warsaw faces another Eurosceptic president.

• UNITED STATES. CHINA. Trump presses Xi to come to the table.

• IRAN. A damning report ahead of a detailed proposal.

• AFGHANISTAN. The Taliban is courted as the region rebalances.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Tangled web

A big propaganda win risks a big escalation.

Ukraine claimed to have destroyed a third of Russia's nuclear bombers Sunday in an attack dubbed "Operation Spider's Web". Volodymr Zelensky said his defence minister would join talks in Istanbul and present a "roadmap" to peace.

INTELLIGENCE. The strikes, allegedly planned over 18 months, were technically impressive and have been compared to Pearl Harbor. Yet, like Pearl Harbor, they could invite a strategic response, especially as the aircraft allegedly hit were part of Russia's nuclear command. Sergey Lavrov spoke with Marco Rubio following the strikes. The US claims not to have been involved. Rubio expressed condolences over a simultaneous attack on a Russian passenger train.

FOR BUSINESS. White House envoy Keith Kellogg repeated Russian talking points on Sunday. Washington may be signalling to Moscow that it can withdraw from Istanbul without recrimination. If so, this would be an own goal for Zelensky as Russia makes further inroads into Sumy (though better than nuclear reprisal, which some Kremlin hawks are calling for). The commander of Ukraine's land forces has resigned. Kyiv’s propaganda victory may be short-lived.

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POLAND. Pole vault

Warsaw faces another Eurosceptic president.

Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki looked poised to win Poland's second round presidential election early Monday despite government-backed centrist rival Rafal Trzaskowski declaring victory. Official results were due later in the day.

INTELLIGENCE. Eurosceptic Nawrocki, despite (or because of) MAGA endorsements and claims of thuggery, has