Alter egos

China, the US, Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Madagascar.

A nice point here, Dr Jekyll - hey - Dr Jekyll!, Herbert Block, The Charlotte News, 26 June 1957, Library of Congress, Washington, DC.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Trump’s climbdown on trade is less TACO than tactics.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Don’t look too hard at Schrödinger’s peace deal.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. New US missiles are unlikely to start or end a war.

• AFGHANISTAN. PAKISTAN. In a border clash, India and the US come into view.

• MADAGASCAR. A military coup now appears to be underway.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Manic depression

Trump’s climbdown on trade is less TACO than tactics.

Wall Street futures rebounded Monday after Donald Trump said “highly respected” Xi Jinping “just had a moment” and didn’t “want depression... and neither do I.” Beijing said Washington’s threat of 100% additional tariffs were “hypocritical.”

INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s softened rhetoric to last week’s rare earths announcement isn’t so much chickening out as probing whether Xi will blink first. But like the trade war episode of April-June, China won’t easily concede. It views its decree – that foreign entities obtain a licence to re-export or manufacture anything containing more than 0.1% of controlled materials – which will be hard to enforce, as itself a reaction to what it sees as unfair US trade measures.

FOR BUSINESS. On 25 September, Trump approved a deal on TikTok. Things looked on track for a summit with Xi at the end of October, but a series of moves since, including an expansion of the US “Entity List” on 29 September, seem to have precipitated Beijing’s rare earths decree. Unlike a TikTok video, the Sino-US trade war will likely be protracted, with distrust now entrenched. The leaders may still meet, but don’t expect a breakthrough without big concessions.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Sham El-Sheikh

Don’t look too hard at Schrödinger’s peace deal.

Israelis celebrated as hostages were released and Donald Trump prepared to speak to the Knesset. Trump declared “the war is over” Sunday. Netanyahu contradicted him. Hamas said it would not attend a peace summit in Sharm el-Sheik.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump goes to Sharm el-Sheikh later today for a summit of 27