Lifting the veil
Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Albania, North Korea, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The deep state tries to forestall a disaster.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Dragging out the war for Putin could hurt.
ALBANIA. Casualties mount in the fight for EU succession.
NORTH KOREA. Kim closes the party congress with an eye to the outside.
UNITED STATES. Anthropic leads an overdue corporate pushback.
IRAN. An appeal to ignorance
The deep state tries to forestall a disaster.
US and Iranian negotiators agreed to meet again next week and hold technical talks in Vienna as US intelligence sources leaked that Donald Trump's claims on Iranian missile technology were false. A senior Joint Chiefs officer was removed.
INTELLIGENCE. An unusual number of press stories refuting Trump’s assertions, and emphasising a lack of military readiness, have surfaced this week. Trump may see it as the fake news media at work, but it’s more likely his officials, wishing to avoid another Gulf War. Claims the US could only maintain a missile campaign for a week seem obtuse, but few will want to test this, particularly after operations against the far smaller Houthis caused so much damage.
FOR BUSINESS. Revealing a lack of US capabilities might seem like aiding the enemy, but Iran has probably arrived at similar conclusions, judging from the regime’s unwillingness, so far, to back down. And falsifying otherwise unfalsifiable claims on weapons is better than a repeat of Iraq. The most likely outcome at this stage thus remains a JCPOA-style deal, perhaps with an investment angle (Hormuz has nice beaches) to let the White House save face.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. S&MO
Dragging out the war for Putin could hurt.
US officials met Ukrainian and Russian counterparts in Geneva Thursday as Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to Trump about another trilateral meeting next month in Abu Dhabi. European officials said Vladimir Putin looked increasingly desperate.
INTELLIGENCE. The costs have certainly risen for Putin’s “special military operation”,