An eye for a power plant
Iran, Saudi Arabia, the US, Ukraine, Russia, and Mali.
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Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The war’s belligerents try to broaden the costs.
SAUDI ARABIA. A deal to keep Riyadh in and Beijing out.
UNITED STATES. The EIA redefines what the oil floor is.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A hardening on land as the agents move in.
MALI. Washington weighs a return to Bamako.
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IRAN. In the land of the blind
The war's belligerents try to broaden the costs.
Oil rose as Donald Trump said the US would “bomb or destroy one bridge or power plant” for every ship attacked. Tehran said its defence doctrine was an “eye for an eye.” A tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz’s Omani corridor exploded.
INTELLIGENCE. Iran claims to have laid new mines at the strait’s southern passage, which very few ships are now attempting. As the US completed a 12th night of strikes, the war looks to be both extending and widening, even as a US theory of victory remains unclear. As the House passed a $95 billion war budget, more assets arrived in Israel, though other bases, like Qatar's Al-Udeid, now appear abandoned. Iran claims to have mobilised a million reservists.
FOR BUSINESS. Regional businesses are now planning for a protracted war. QatarEnergy is reportedly preparing to extend force majeure into October. DP World is building more ports on the Gulf of Oman, to bypass Hormuz. Owing to the strait’s logjam, China has halted helium exports. Nobody has good foresight on where the war will now lead. The only real acuity appears to be the direct hits Iran is getting on distant US bases, allegedly with Russian assistance.
SAUDI ARABIA. Nukes for thee, but not for Xi
A deal to keep Riyadh in and Beijing out.
The US Department of Energy signed a civil nuclear deal with Riyadh Wednesday, featuring “bilateral” safeguards and enrichment rights. Yemen’s Houthis foreshadowed a “significant military operation” after attacking two Saudi oil tankers.
INTELLIGENCE. The deal not only comes without Trump’s earlier insistence on Israeli