Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
FRANCE. Macron must race to find a new prime minister.
NORWAY. Labour is re-elected but will be beholden to its partners.
ISRAEL. EGYPT. A ‘hurricane’ over Gaza risks a storm in Cairo.
NEPAL. The government retreats after bloody protests.
INDONESIA. Prabowo sacrifices credibility for consent.
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FRANCE. Bleu Bayrou
Macron must race to find a new prime minister.
The National Assembly voted out Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, 364-194, raising pressure on Emmanuel Macron to appoint a new government or call an election. Paris braced for a nationwide "block everything" protest on Wednesday.
INTELLIGENCE. The protest will be a practice run ahead of larger strikes scheduled by eight major unions for 18 September. Leftwing parties, who form a plurality of the Assembly, will hope this causes Macron to select from their ranks, but the bond markets and the hard-right National Rally, the biggest single party, will beg to differ. A new election may be the least risky path for Macron, even if this leads to more short-term uncertainty and further budgetary delays.
FOR BUSINESS. The Assembly was unwilling to stomach Bayrou's proposed deficit cuts, which most countries would consider fair, but rectitude of some form will be inevitable unless France wishes to destroy EU fiscal credibility. Economists do not believe France is in a crisis, but the bond markets disagree. They are watching whether Fitch drops France's rating on Friday, which could be followed by Moody's and S&P in October and November, respectively.
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NORWAY. Second-hand Stoere
Labour is re-elected but will be beholden to its partners.
Five left-leaning parties led by Jonas Gahr Stoere's Labour won 87 seats in parliamentary elections Monday, two more than needed for a majority. The hard-right Progress Party came second overall, more than doubling its seat count to 48.
INTELLIGENCE. Labour begins its second term with five more seats than it previously
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