Après TACO, le déluge
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, NATO, China, and South Africa.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Someone’s gonna pay to unblock the Strait.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Diplomats will struggle to negotiate out of war.
NATO. The alliance is on the rocks, but it can’t afford a divorce.
CHINA. The chairman of everything is about to move in.
SOUTH AFRICA. An apartheid minister is sent to a baasskap state.
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IRAN. For whom the toll bells
Someone's gonna pay to unblock the Strait.
The White House said it had completely halted Iran’s maritime trade, though Reuters said shipping data had barely changed, and Associated Press said there were no warships in Iranian waters. Donald Trump told Fox the war was “over”.
INTELLIGENCE. The US has likely interdicted some ships, but it’s unlikely to be able to do so for long without creating a crisis with China or reigniting its clash with Iran. Tehran claims to still be trading (and tolling ships through its own blockade). The IRGC remains seemingly in control, though US hints of talks and offramps continue to mollify markets. Whether it’s Iran collecting fees or returning to active war, a price will need to be paid, politically, financially, or both.
FOR BUSINESS. Markets appear confident of a deal, but politically, this seems unlikely in the short term. Strategic logic tends to trump economic logic (at least for regimes like Iran’s), and China is not yet signalling impatience. A US military buildup, meanwhile, continues, and even if a second round of talks is held in Islamabad, this won’t (per Russia or any other example) mean instant gratification. Trump’s social media timeline again fails to comport with reality.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Talk is cheap
Diplomats will struggle to negotiate out of war.
Marco Rubio hosted the ambassadors of Lebanon and Israel Tuesday in the two sides first direct talks in decades. Israeli polls showed 80% of Jews supported the war continuing. Mossad’s chief said the mission was “yet to be completed”.
INTELLIGENCE. Fewer Lebanese want the war to continue, but that doesn't mean