Around the world in 80 threats

The US, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Israel, Palestine, France, and the Pacific.

Pictorial map of Jules Verne's Le Tour du Monde en 80 jours, unknown illustrator, c. 1870, private collection.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. The EU and Mexico are sent a letter.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump tries on a little bit of stick.

• IRAN. Tehran’s call for diplomacy looks like a delaying tactic.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. The West Bank becomes Netanyahu’s latest front.

• FRANCE. THE PACIFIC. New Caledonia is offered statehood sans sovereignty.

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UNITED STATES. Making the list

The EU and Mexico are sent a letter.

Donald Trump published letters to the EU and Mexico Saturday, threatening 30% tariffs on 1 August in the absence of a trade deal. The EU said it would delay countermeasures. Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum said she would keep a "cool head".

INTELLIGENCE. Neither Sheinbaum nor the EU's Ursula von der Leyen are taking the bait. As with Trump's threats against Canada, Japan, South Korea and much of ASEAN, they will see this as a negotiating tactic to keep up an outward sign of pressure as negotiating deadlines are extended. And while, unlike markets, Brussels and Mexico cannot assume Trump will chicken out – lest this encourage him to call his own bluff – they won't be panicked either.

FOR BUSINESS. Markets continue to price a low chance of the tariffs entering into force. And while this may be a risky gamble, the "taco" trade has largely worked so far. Still, Trump's aggressive tactics are causing states to hedge their bets in other ways. Ahead of a visit to Beijing, the EU's competition commissioner said Monday the bloc is exploring free trade agreements across Asia. Mexican industry this month called for a new trading pact with India.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Near missiles

Trump tries on a little bit of stick.

Donald Trump said Sunday he would send more Patriot missiles to Ukraine. NATO's secretary general and Germany's defence minister were due in Washington Monday ahead of an expected announcement. Keith Kellogg arrived in Kyiv.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump last week promised a "major statement" on Russia. Hawks had