Art of the ordeal
Iran, the US, Israel, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Vietnam.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump Erects Fake Lines, Obscures Negotiations.
UNITED STATES. The president’s bombast conceals a bigger crisis.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu can ill afford Tehran’s symbolic win.
PAKISTAN. Sharif is the true winner of the ceasefire, for now.
VIETNAM. The Communist Party secretary centralises control.
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IRAN. TEFLON, not TACO
Trump Erects Fake Lines, Obscures Negotiations.
Oil fell sharply after Donald Trump announced a two-week “double-sided” ceasefire subject to Iran’s “safe opening” of Hormuz. Declaring “complete victory”, Trump said Iran’s 10-point proposal was a “workable basis on which to negotiate”.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s sudden shift on earlier escalation shows the falsity of his negotiating style and Iran’s control of the Strait, which it’s set to maintain even under a truce (assuming it holds). Tehran said any opening would be “in coordination with the armed forces, meaning tolls (in RMB) will possibly continue. Indeed, these form part of the 10 points, alongside a lifting of sanctions, a full US withdrawal, reparations, and (in some versions) nuclear enrichment.
FOR BUSINESS. Claiming the market response as proof of success, Trump will hope he can slide out of this one, but Gulf allies have yet to comment. Iranian attacks are still being reported. How and when the truce starts isn’t clear. If these are the terms, then Trump has lost. It will be hard for him to bluff through a ceasefire once consumers realise they’re still paying more for limited Gulf oil, and on Iran’s terms. Field and refinery repair will take months, if not years.
UNITED STATES. Hormuz tolls for thee
The president’s bombast conceals a bigger crisis.
Trump was accused of “genocidal threats” after saying Iran’s “civilization would die” if Hormuz didn’t open. After pivoting, Trump said the US would “hang around” and “big money will be made.” Senators called to invoke the 25th amendment.
INTELLIGENCE. While several ex-MAGA cheerleaders have also called for the 25th,