As certain as death and TACOs
Iran, Yemen, Ukraine, Russia, the US, and China.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump’s Hormuz tax is less threat than feint.
YEMEN. A long-held truce with Saudi Arabia breaks.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A Patriot alternative comes too late.
UNITED STATES. January 2020 continues to shape November 2026.
CHINA. Xi’s purge topples another senior cadre.
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IRAN. Rear guardian action
Trump’s Hormuz tax is less threat than feint.
Tit-for-tat strikes continued in the Gulf as Donald Trump said he would reinstate a blockade against Iran and, as "GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT", toll all cargoes at 20% “to be reimbursed for protection”. Brent crude rose to $87.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump has few means to realise his tax, short of occupying Iran’s coast. Moreover, the toll, which could cost $30 million for a typical supertanker, versus $2 million for Iran’s proposed levy, would not just alienate the region but the world. It might, however, move the Overton window such that Iran’s own ambit claims would look reasonable. That, in turn, could allow him to declare to have made another amazing deal as he backs down yet again.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s move looks escalatory, but unless he’s willing to back it with force, at the risk of more US lives and higher crude prices, it’s a rear-guard action in retreat. Trump may be frustrated with Iran, and may be separately threatening to bomb its alleged nuclear sites, but this will only prolong an unwinnable war as his strategic petroleum reserve continues to fall. Trump’s 17 June MoU may have been a bad deal, but it at least cut his losses.
YEMEN. Put that in your pipeline
A long-held truce with Saudi Arabia breaks.
The Iran-backed Houthi movement fired missiles into Saudi Arabia Monday, breaking a four-year informal truce after Yemen's Saudi-backed government stopped an Iranian jet from landing at the Sanaa airport. It later landed in Hodeidah.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite their fealty to Tehran, and occasional strikes on Israel during