Bangladesh: Flown the coup

Also: the Indian Ocean, Israel, Iran, Tunisia, and Bulgaria.

Bird, Rabindranath Tagore, c1930s, ink on paper, private collection.

In today’s dispatch:

• BANGLADESH. As Hasina flees to India, the army takes charge.

• INDIAN OCEAN. The US revives old plans for a base off Western Australia.

• ISRAEL. IRAN. Another Hezbollah commander is killed as militants attack a US base.

• TUNISIA. The president’s crackdown risks going too far.

• BULGARIA. Sofia heads back to the polls, again.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

BANGLADESH. Flown the coup

As Hasina flees to India, the army takes charge.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India by helicopter before thousands stormed her residence Monday. Army chief Waker-Uz-Zaman announced an “interim” government and called for calm. The US commended the military's "restraint".

INTELLIGENCE. The government’s fall after weeks of unrest is being portrayed as people power, but many in the region, especially India, see it as a coup. The military, not the mob, is in control, and Dhaka’s underlying tensions are no closer to resolution. After 15 years of undermining democracy and characterising the opposition as extremists, many in the elite will be unwilling to let the next stage be decided at the ballot box. The interim could last a long time.

FOR BUSINESS. The West has been careful not to condemn the takeover. Hasina was either going to crack down or flee. But eventually there’ll be demands for democracy’s return, particularly with Bangladeshi access to the EU fashion sector a point of contention within European civil society. At the same time, the West will be unwilling to push too hard. China sees Bangladesh as a strategic swing-state, particularly as India’s favourite politician has left the scene.

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INDIAN OCEAN. Not just out of a coconut tree

The US revives old plans for a base off Western Australia.

Lloyd Austin met his Australian counterpart Monday ahead of talks involving Antony Blinken, who has returned from a tour of Indo-Pacific partners. Reuters reported a US Navy construction tender that included Australia's Cocos Islands.

INTELLIGENCE. Cocos, off the cost of Java but under Australian jurisdiction, was used by Britain in World War II and eyed as a Cold War accompaniment to the US Navy’s base in Diego Garcia, south of India. With Mauritius