Be careful what you wish for
Iran, the Gulf, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, and China.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Washington and Tehran find out what’s coming.
THE GULF. Geographical proximity becomes a problem.
AFGHANISTAN. PAKISTAN. Islamabad exposes the Taliban’s limitations.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. War grinds on with international attention elsewhere.
CHINA. Outwardly upset, Xi may privately be pleased.
IRAN. Epic FAFO
Washington and Tehran find out what's coming.
The US launched ‘Operation Epic Fury’ early Saturday, coordinating with Israel to bring about regime change. Iran responded with strikes on Israel, US bases, and US allies. Donald Trump said he wanted to talk to Iran’s new leadership.
INTELLIGENCE. With Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei killed, Trump may judge that it will soon be time to “take the win”, yet debates about who’s in charge, and the dispersed “mosaic defence” doctrine Iran has activated to ensure regime survival (where individual units initiate strikes rather than seek central command), will complicate a truce (beyond an evident lack of trust). Moreover, Iran may have commenced an attritional strategy, which means there’s a way to go.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran appears to be firing a fairly mediocre arsenal into Israel and the Gulf. This could be because it was always a paper tiger (simply negating Trump’s casus belli), but could alternatively be because it wants to exhaust costly US interceptors, per Russia in Ukraine. If so, it would quickly erode Trump’s initial triumphs among a sceptical public, who won’t otherwise see any upsides from this war of choice. If fighting continues, we’ll know soon enough.
THE GULF. Dire Strait
Geographical proximity becomes a problem.
Oil prices surged 7% in Asian trade Monday as traffic halted in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran hit US facilities in the Gulf as well as luxury developments in Dubai. Abu Dhabi closed its stock exchange. Airlines cancelled flights across the region.
INTELLIGENCE. Seaborne inventories, OPEC+ output hikes and the Habshan-