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Israel, Palestine, Sudan, Romania, commodities, and AI.

Encampment, Jean-Léon Gérôme, 1878, oil on canvas, Ger Eenens Collection, Limburg.

The five things you need to know today:

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Trump increases the stakes on his Gaza proposal.

• SUDAN. The RSF, and the UAE, face a reckoning.

• ROMANIA. A cautionary tale on how not to deal with populist anger.

• COMMODITIES. Geopolitics is shaking up the old economy.

• ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. More bubble-like behaviour in the new economy.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Price of admission

Trump increases the stakes on his Gaza proposal.

Donald Trump told Fox News Monday Gazans would have no right of return. Hamas said it would stop hostage releases "until further notice". Trump said “all hell” would break if this happened. Arabs would reject Trump's plan, Egypt said.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump will meet Jordan’s King at the White House today. His increasingly incendiary remarks can thus be seen in the context of goading Arab (and European) states to come up with a better deal. Yet the gambit, as always, could backfire, not just in terms of Israeli hostage releases but wider Middle East peace efforts. London’s Telegraph reports the IRGC has asked a fatwah be lifted on nuclear weapons. UN staff have been detained in Yemen.

FOR BUSINESS. Threats to permanently displace Gazans just may be threats, but hardliners in Iran, or in its remaining proxy network, need few incentives to resume an escalating conflict that only recently paused in the wake of Syria’s collapse and Hamas’s ceasefire with Israel. Western ships have begun to return to the Red Sea. The first oil and LNG tankers in six months recently passed the Bab-el-Mandab Strait, near Houthi-held territory. Their voyage may be short.

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SUDAN. Khartoum raiders

The RSF, and the UAE, face a reckoning.

The Sudanese Armed Forces closed in on Rapid Support Forces positions in Khartoum Monday, with predictions for the capital's fall in the coming days. The UN accused the RSF of preventing aid from reaching famine-stricken Darfur.

INTELLIGENCE. Few will mourn the collapse of the RSF, an outgrowth of the Janjaweed militia that has ravaged