Belarus, North Korea: Minsk coattails
Also: Britain, China, the US, Japan, South Korea, and Togo.
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BELARUS. NORTH KOREA. Minsk coattails
Russia’s allies rear their heads but won’t decide the war.
Belarus launched drills Tuesday using missiles and nuclear-capable aircraft. Poland said it would investigate if a judge who fled to Minsk was a spy. Ukraine said at least 50 North Korean missiles had been used by Russia so far in the war.
INTELLIGENCE. The Belarussian drills were announced the day after Russia started simulation drills of its own using battlefield nuclear weapons. Belarus said it would use Su-25 fighter jets and short-range missiles in the drills. Moscow has used close ally Belarus as a strategic flank for the war, deploying nuclear weapons there last year, while retaining control over the weapons. Russia and Belarus claim the drills and deployments remain defensive measures.
FOR BUSINESS. The potential for the war to spill over remains. Indeed, with Belarus assisting, the West supplying Ukraine, and North Korea providing arms to Russia, it already has. But Belarussian and North Korean involvement is unlikely to change the war calculus. Belarus is an extension of Russian territory with little additional capability. Moreover, investigators report that about half of the North Korean missiles fired appear to have exploded in the air.
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BRITAIN. Once more into the breach
Another cyber-attack, this time targeting the military’s payroll.
A ‘malign actor’ has exposed the details of up to 272,000 soldiers, sailors and air force members, Britain’s defence secretary said Tuesday. The attack was on a third-party provider of payroll services for the UK government and military.
INTELLIGENCE. In addition to names and bank details, there are reports that addresses were also exposed. While China is suspected, Downing Street has refused to confirm this. The attack is another in a series of ongoing and escalating cyber-attacks on the UK. Britain also accused China of hacking its Electoral Commission in March, including accessing voter details, which resulted in sanctions and charges against Chinese nationals and a company.
FOR BUSINESS. The attack on the payroll contractor SSCL highlights the vulnerability of governments to cyber-attacks when using third-party providers for corporate or other functions. Using outsourced services inevitably creates different approaches to security, which can create weaknesses. In an age of increasingly sophisticated state-led attacks, deeper and continuous coordination between government and contractors on cyber threats is critical.
CHINA. UNITED STATES. Byte me
TikTok goes into battle.
TikTok and its Chinese parent ByteDance launched a federal court action Tuesday to block the recent law forcing its divestiture in the US. Washington meanwhile revoked certain licenses to sell chips to sanctioned Chinese telco Huawei.
INTELLIGENCE. TikTok alleges the laws violate several constitutional provisions, not least the First Amendment protecting freedom of speech. The law was signed by Joe Biden on 24 April, giving TikTok 270 days (January 2025) to complete the divestiture or face a ban. Some 170 million Americans use the app, including White House staff for Biden’s re-election campaign. Donald Trump, who also tried to ban TikTok in 2020, for the time being, does not.
FOR BUSINESS. The question as to who controls TikTok is complex. According to the lawsuit, 58% of ByteDance is owned by global investors such as BlackRock, General Atlantic and Susquehanna, while 21% is owned by employees, including many US citizens. But these facts won’t sway lawmakers. Ultimately, the question of control over ByteDance is a question of trust and geopolitics, both of which pitch Congress against ByteDance and the Chinese government.
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CHINA. JAPAN. SOUTH KOREA. Regaining momentum
The three East Asian powers prepare to resume talks.
Japan, China and South Korea will hold their first trilateral summit in four years this month, South Korea's foreign ministry said. On Tuesday, Japan released the fifth batch of contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant.
INTELLIGENCE. Talks between the key players in arguably the most important region for global stability is welcome. Pyongyang’s nuclear program will be top of the agenda, which Tokyo and Seoul clearly oppose. But China also doesn’t want a nuclear North Korea, though it is equally concerned by regime collapse. Both South Korea and Japan have canvassed joining the US-led AUKUS military technology deal, partly in response to North Korea’s actions.
FOR BUSINESS. Following Japan and South Korea’s recent rapprochement, Tokyo now seeks to push trilateral economic cooperation and ease of travel. But ahead of US elections in November, there is only so far it will go at risk of antagonising Washington. Japan’s release of Fukushima water meanwhile continues to stoke tensions and present an excuse to pressure Tokyo on other matters. Trade restrictions on Japanese seafood remain in place.
TOGO. Dismember of parliament
Gnassingbé is fast becoming a president for life.
Togo’s president further entrenched his family’s rule over the tiny ex-French West African colony Tuesday, confirming presidential elections will be eliminated, and the parliament (which he now controls) will choose the president.
INTELLIGENCE. Togo held sham parliamentary elections last week, with Faure Gnassingbé’s ruling party claiming a clear majority. Opposition figures fought hard against the constitutional amendment, to no avail. The new amendment also increases presidential terms to six years. The Commonwealth – the British-led pro-democracy bloc Togo joined in 2022 (alongside Gabon) – has been silent. The US and France, wary of losing more allies, equally so.
FOR BUSINESS. France’s official silence did not stop Togo warning Radio France Internationale of a possible ban following its "unbalanced" reporting on the poll. France and Togo have had difficult ties for years, particularly after Paris's Bolloré Group fell under criminal investigation on bribery allegations over a Togolese port. Togo’s pivot to the UK however is just a fudge. The real pivot is to Russia, which is seeking to build a trans-Sahel logistics bridge to Libya.