Bending the truce
Ukraine, Russia, the former Soviet Union, Germany, the US, Eritrea, and Ethiopia.
The five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin agrees to a ceasefire, but only on his conditions.
FORMER SOVIET UNION. Two upsides of US-Russian rapprochement.
GERMANY. The Bundestag plays chicken on climate and defence.
UNITED STATES. The Senate avoids adding a fiscal crisis to the mix.
ERITREA. ETHIOPIA. As one war ends, another restarts.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Coming to terms
Putin agrees to a ceasefire, but only on his conditions.
Vladimir Putin said he was in favour of a ceasefire, but questions would need to be "ironed out". Steve Witkoff was due to meet Putin late Thursday, Politico said. The US sent long-range bombs to Ukraine and let sanctions exemptions expire.
INTELLIGENCE. Putin is seeing if he can outplay the US for a settlement on his terms. He may well succeed. The expiration of General License 8L sanctions waivers may well help the Kremlin, if it leads to higher crude prices, while also punishing European customers. And the long-range GLSDB bombs being used in place of exhausted ATACMS stocks have a habit of getting jammed by Russian air-defences. Russia has almost cleared Kursk of Ukrainian troops.
FOR BUSINESS. Putin is under pressure to conclude the war but less so than Volodymyr Zelensky or Donald Trump. This gives him a natural negotiating advantage as Trump meanwhile works to further degrade Kyiv’s other bargaining chip beyond Kursk: European unity. In a meeting with NATO Thursday, Trump again threatened to annex Canada and Greenland. Italy will reportedly boycott an Anglo-French meeting on Ukraine. Poland continues to hedge its bets.
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FORMER SOVIET UNION. Caucasus and effect
Two upsides of US-Russian rapprochement.
Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed Thursday to the terms of a treaty that could end 40 years of war. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed a deal to demarcate their border, which would allow for road, rail and air transport links to be restored.
INTELLIGENCE. The timing is no coincidence. With the West’s sway in Russia's sphere of influence waning, post-