Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Best pals

The UK, the US, Belarus, Israel, Palestine, Brazil, and South Sudan.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Sep 12, 2025
∙ Paid
3
Share
"Unless we can divide those two fellows - we're sunk!", unknown illustrator, c. 1942, National Archives, Kew.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • BRITAIN. UNITED STATES. Mandelson’s sacking comes at an awkward moment.

  • BELARUS. Washington dances to Putin’s tune on Lukashenko.

  • ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Another nail in reconciliation’s coffin.

  • BRAZIL. The US eyes more cudgels after Bolsonaro's sentencing.

  • SOUTH SUDAN. Salva Kiir deepens the purge.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

Upgrade today to lock in your subscription at 25% off our normal price - forever. This offer is only for September. Get access to all five daily briefings, five days a week, as relied on by leaders and investors across 150 countries.

Get 25% off

BRITAIN. UNITED STATES. Special relations

Mandelson’s sacking comes at an awkward moment.

Keir Starmer sacked Peter Mandelson as Britain's ambassador to the US Thursday after the release of a letter where Mandelson called Jeffrey Epstein "my best pal". Details were given of Donald Trump's state visit to the UK next week.

INTELLIGENCE. The state visit, Trump’s second, will involve a banquet at Windsor Castle and a bilateral at Chequers. Mandelson was central to the preparations. But while he and Trump were by no means friends, they may have shared a "wonderful secret" in Epstein’s birthday book, which Trump has called a hoax. Mandelson’s sacking indicates the document’s veracity. The timing around Trump’s visit could also indicate an uncharacteristic power move by Starmer.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump will have viewed the trip as a political respite, but this is unlikely to now be the case. Epstein will even be front of mind at Windsor, considering Prince Andrew’s scandals. For Starmer, a rattled Trump might be useful. He needs to protect Britain against US steel and pharma. Talks have begun on the former. For the latter, a drug pricing debate has been overshadowed by Merck’s scrapping of a planned London research centre investment.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy. Learn more about how we can help you to map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks.

Visit our website

BELARUS. Minsked messages

Washington dances to Putin’s tune on Lukashenko.

White House envoy John Coale said the US wanted to reopen its embassy in Minsk Thursday following a meeting with Alexander Lukashenko, who agreed to release 52 prisoners, including an EU official. Belarusian drills with Russia began.

INTELLIGENCE. Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the release of her colleague but

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Geopolitical Dispatch to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Geopolitical Strategy Pty Ltd
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture