Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The region braces for all-out war or peace or both.
SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. Trump sits out the Houthi conflict for now.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin isn’t letting anyone challenge his rule.
GERMANY. Merz vows to remain, even if his party is over.
GREENLAND. Washington agrees to a face-saving pseudo-deal.
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IRAN. TACO, FAFO or FUBAR
The region braces for all-out war or peace or both.
Donald Trump threatened to "wipe Iran out" Sunday after leaving Camp David, though also suggested he was open to meeting Masoud Pezeshkian in New York. Qatar said it was exchanging messages. Iran put its military on high alert.
INTELLIGENCE. An early departure from Camp David, used sparingly in Trump’s second term, would normally portend a major military event. Yet Trump seems to have done so to spend time with two pro golfers and an OnlyFans model at his club in Potomac Falls. Yet even if Trump seems unserious, a State Department alert, warning Americans to avoid the Middle East, seems ominous. Crude futures are steady, but diesel prices hit an average of $6.50 per gallon.
FOR BUSINESS. Washington’s mixed messages continue to confuse markets. CENTCOM claims Hormuz oil transits are at a six-month high, but commercial data is mixed. Tehran is likewise indicating it’s open to a deal, but only on terms Trump is sure to refuse. The most reasonable expectation is that the holding patterns will continue until at least the midterms. Just as Trump can’t afford to look weak via de-escalation, he can unlikely afford a military surge.
SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. A day late and a petrodollar short
Trump sits out the Houthi conflict for now.
The Houthis claimed an attack on Riyadh as smoke was seen near main airport. The militia earlier hit an Italian jet in Ta’if. CNN said the US planned to join retaliatory strikes. The New York Times said Trump decided Sunday to call it off.
INTELLIGENCE. CNN has been banned from the White House. Trump calls the NYT