Beyond the grave
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. After 4 July and a funeral, the ghosts of war could return.
SAUDI ARABIA. A US exit would leave a petrodollar void.
MEXICO. CANADA. The end of USMCA is an opening for Europe.
VENEZUELA. Delcy Rodriguez faces her legitimation crisis.
UNITED STATES. Politics’ monetisation drives its polarisation.
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IRAN. Not dead or buried
After 4 July and a funeral, the ghosts of war could return.
Indirect talks concluded, with Doha heralding "positive progress" and saying negotiations would resume after Khamenei's funeral. Oil futures fell to pre-war prices. Tehran said it would set up a channel to discuss any breaches with Washington.
INTELLIGENCE. Oil is pricing status quo ante, but as US reserves continue to fall faster than Hormuz flows, still at just a third of pre-war levels, Iran will have scope to up the ante. Wednesday’s grounding of a ship off Oman and a US Seahawk in the Arabian Sea may have been coincident, but Tehran remains an implacable foe with leverage. JD Vance admitted as such when he told the Daily Wire the MoU was simply about allowing the US to “refill some stocks”.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran also has good reasons to heed the truce. After Donald Trump’s 17 June capitulation, it’s hard to imagine it getting a better deal. Yet should the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve continue to decline, Iran’s clout will continue to grow, increasing incentives for another round of hostilities. The dilemma is being exacerbated by Trump’s calls for lower gas prices and Tehran’s warning for Washington to “muzzle its pets in Tel Aviv” lest they be “schooled”.
SAUDI ARABIA. Taking the mountain from Mohammed
A US exit would leave a petrodollar void.
The US was mulling a withdrawal of troops from Saudi Arabia, the Times of Israel said Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had skipped the G7 summit in protest of Trump’s conduct in the war.
INTELLIGENCE. Washington and Riyadh, never natural allies, have lived through a lot,