Black Sea, blue ocean, grey zone
Ukraine, Russia, Iran, the US, Australia, and the UK.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin expands and escalates the war.
IRAN. Washington digs in but shows its preferences.
UNITED STATES. Trump looks for new stuff to tariff.
AUSTRALIA. AUKUS continues on a rudder and a prayer.
BRITAIN. A joke candidate wins a farcical election.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A broader brush
Putin expands and escalates the war.
Russia promised to respond “in kind” if its merchant ships were seized as a frigate sailed with its battle ensign through the English Channel. A blast at Rotterdam killed one following explosions at munitions factories in Italy and Bulgaria.
INTELLIGENCE. None of these incidents may be proven to be hostile acts, but they’ll be seen as hybrid warfare, as Moscow tests NATO response times with more drone incursions in the Baltic. Vladimir Putin’s visit to the Japanese-claimed southern Kuril Islands is likewise a “grey zone” provocation that Tokyo, as it tries to sweep out Russian spies, will struggle to proportionately respond to. As Ukraine seeks a truce on Black Sea attacks, the war is branching out.
FOR BUSINESS. As Volodymyr Zelensky requests more Patriot interceptors from its allies, Putin is sending a warning and seeking to regain escalation dominance as tit-for-tat strikes on refineries and grain silos damage both sides’ economies without achieving tangible gains. The next stage may be to reprise Belarus’s 2021 migrant weaponisation. New tunnels have been discovered into Lithuania. The divided EU response to Ceuta shows a point of weakness.
IRAN. Indefinite, indistinct
Washington digs in but shows its preferences.
Pete Hegseth said the US could maintain an "indefinite" blockade on the Strait of Hormuz as Scott Bessent promised "measures that have never been seen". JD Vance said America’s top goal in Iran was to "keep oil and gasoline cheap".
INTELLIGENCE. Vance added "obviously, goal number two is ensure that Iran never