Blind fury
Iran, the Gulf, Pakistan, Nepal, and Germany.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Eye-for-eye strikes build the case for a long, futile war.
THE GULF. Oil could be the least of the region’s worries.
PAKISTAN. A fight with Kabul becomes a sideshow.
NEPAL. Kathmandu sends a diss track to its neighbours.
GERMANY. Baden-Wurttemberg disappoints but won’t derail Merz.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Red mist
Eye-for-eye strikes build the case for a long, futile war.
Israel attacked oil storage facilities near Tehran as the IRGC claimed to have disabled more US radars. Mojtaba Khamenei was made supreme leader. Donald Trump said “if he doesn’t get approval from us, he’s not going to last long.”
INTELLIGENCE. Iran, Israel and the US all seem to be preparing for a long war. Mojtaba is considered more hardline than his father. Trump, who has the greatest scope to declare a win, continues to burn his off-ramps. He says a limited ground invasion to secure Iran’s uranium would be a “great thing.” His response to surging oil prices – up a further 29% at one point Monday – is that it’s a “very small price to pay.” Israel has said to expect a long state of emergency.
FOR BUSINESS. Entering its second week, Operation Epic Fury remains all tactics, no strategy. A market crash may stay Trump’s hand, but each belligerent remark makes it harder for him to pivot while retaining future credibility. Oil facilities on both sides are being hit. An amphibious landing on Kharg Island looks like a plausible next step. Trump looks to be betting the house on a Pyrrhic victory. Whether he gets regime change in Iran, he’ll probably get it at home.
THE GULF. Let them eat Dubai chocolate
Oil could be the least of the region’s worries.
Desalination plants were hit in Bahrain and Iran, with Trump commenting on the later that Iran shouldn’t chop up babies. Logistics firms warned that Dubai might run out of fresh food in a week. The US ordered its diplomats to leave Riyadh.
INTELLIGENCE. Attacks on desalination plants are an escalation and could force the