Blinkmanship
The EU, the US, Japan, China, ASEAN, Ukraine, Russia, and Guyana.
The five things you need to know today:
EUROPE. UNITED STATES. Another empty threat evaporates.
JAPAN. UNITED STATES. A joint SWF could be the best or worst idea ever.
CHINA. ASEAN. Beijing pursues second-degree regionalisation.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin’s approach is as hard-headed as it is outrageous.
GUYANA. A corporate feud and next-door elections leave Georgetown exposed.
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EUROPE. UNITED STATES. Ham-fisted
Another empty threat evaporates.
The Euro rallied in early trade Monday after Donald Trump agreed to delay EU tariffs, threatened at 50% Friday, until after 9 July. Trump separately said the US was “not looking to make sneakers and t-shirts” but “big things” and “the AI thing.”
INTELLIGENCE. Trump's supporters will see the art of the deal, with Ursula von der Leyen's proposed stay on levies, until the previous 90-day negotiation period is over in July, a forced move following weeks of Brussels intransigence. Trump's detractors will simply see panic at Friday's market rout. But regardless, the president's negotiating credibility has taken another hit after this latest retreat. Even if he is serious about trade, his interlocutors won't believe him.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump said Friday he wasn't "looking for a deal", but agreeing to "work something out" two days later suggests he is. Markets were unsure Europe’s rule-bound diplomats would be as able as China’s to settle something quickly, but judging from this weekend and last fortnight, they just need to run down the clock to get what they want: either status quo ante or, more ambitiously, their zero-for-zero proposal. As for Trump, nobody knows what he wants.
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JAPAN. UNITED STATES. Two broke sovereigns
A joint SWF could be the best or worst idea ever.
Softbank founder Masayoshi Son had proposed a Japan-US sovereign wealth fund to invest in critical infrastructure and new technology, the Financial Times said Monday. The US Treasury was looking to fix the deficit without raising taxes.
INTELLIGENCE. Donald Trump had quietly dropped the idea for an American SWF, which made little sense for an