Blockade and tackling
Venezuela, the US, the EU, the Caucasus, the DRC, and Rwanda.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
VENEZUELA. Trump commits the Navy and changes the narrative.
UNITED STATES. Trump takes heat from an unconventional team and priorities.
EUROPE. Industrial policy hits a speed bump.
THE CAUCASUS. With an end in sight for Ukraine, Russia looks south.
DR CONGO. RWANDA. The M23 buys time as a bigger prize is eyed.
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VENEZUELA. Surround sound
Trump commits the Navy and changes the narrative.
Oil rose after Donald Trump announced “a total and complete” blockade of sanctioned tankers to and from Venezuela, until “oil, land, and other assets” were returned to the US. The FAA reissued a warning to airlines flying over Venezuela.
INTELLIGENCE. A shift in threats – from land strikes to a blockade – and justification – from drugs to nationalised assets (dating, presumably, to 1976, when state producer PDVSA was formed from bits of Standard Oil, Shell and Mobil) – is in part an extension of Trump’s confused and expensive strategy on Venezuela, but also a sign he needs to ramp up the distraction. GOP talking points ahead of Friday’s expected Epstein File release were leaked Tuesday.
FOR BUSINESS. A blockade is a step short of war but could trigger one. Nicolas Maduro can’t “return” PDVSA without losing his job (or life). Blockades in 1902-3 were a galvanising moment for Venezuela’s identity. They may stop exports but won’t necessarily lead to collapse. Smuggling will continue, including through the jungles of Guyana, which Maduro claims and which could become a distraction tool of his own, alongside the seizure of Chevron assets.
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UNITED STATES. Withdrawal symptoms
Trump takes heat from an unconventional team and priorities.
Jared Kushner withdrew his fund from Paramount’s bid for Warner Brothers as he dropped plans to build a Trump-branded hotel in Belgrade following local opposition. Susie Wiles told Vanity Fair Trump had an “alcoholic’s personality”.
INTELLIGENCE. The chief of staff’s frank views on several White House characters