Bolivia: The coup that didn't bark in the night
Also: the EU, NATO, Serbia, Kosovo, Turkey, Iraq, Russia, and Iran.
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BOLIVIA. The coup that didn't bark in the night
A bizarre confrontation in La Paz.
Army chief Juan Jose Zuniga was arrested late Wednesday after a failed coup attempt in the de facto capital. President Luis Arce appointed new service heads, who ordered the return of troops and armoured vehicles to their barracks.
INTELLIGENCE. After storming the presidential palace and demanding the release of ex-president Jeanine Anez, Zuniga’s coup was allegedly turned off when he was confronted by Arce and trade unionists assembled in the plaza outside. There are several things odd with this narrative. We may never know the real reasons for the mutiny, or its dispersal. Either way, a divided nation has been further polarised. Questions over the government’s legitimacy remain.
FOR BUSINESS. Arce was economy minister under the presidency of Evo Morales, which ended with a disputed election, violent protests and Anez’s interim government. Arce became president in 2020, overseeing Anez's arrest in 2021. Popular in the largely indigenous Andes highlands, Acre has continued Morales’s left-wing policies, including by legalising coca. Anez (and the army) are popular in the richer, export-oriented, conservative and mestizo lowlands.
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EUROPE. Insider jobs
Controversy mars top EU and NATO appointments.
Ex-Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte was appointed as NATO's next secretary-general Wednesday. A deal between centrists led to Ursula von der Leyen's reappointment as EU Commission chief. Italy's prime minister raised concerns.
INTELLIGENCE. Rutte and von der Leyen were favoured to win but their status as consummate Brussels insiders, and unsettled quarrels over Europe’s distribution of spoils, will complicate their terms. Rutte was appointed by consensus, after Romania’s Klaus Iohannis withdrew and Hungary’s Viktor Orban secured Ukraine exemptions. Von der Leyen was appointed by the EU parliament’s three centrist blocs, excluding the hard-right, despite its historic election swing.
FOR BUSINESS. Rutte’s appointment is seen as more legitimate, but many in the east grumble they’re doing more militarily without a role at the top. The appointment of Estonia’s Kaja Kallas as EU foreign policy chief is a concession, but it was made in the same backroom that appointed von der Leyen. That deal involved the Renew bloc, which lost 23% of its seats on 9 June. In the outgoing parliament, Renew was led by the parties of Rutte and Emmanuel Macron.
SERBIA. KOSOVO. Kurti reply
A leaders’ meeting is cancelled by Pristina.
EU-sponsored talks between Serbia's Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo's Albin Kurti were cancelled at the last minute Wednesday after Kurti said certain preconditions, such as the extradition of Serb politician Milan Radoicic, weren't met.
INTELLIGENCE. Kurti was never going to get all he wanted, and by refusing to meet Vucic he’ll only annoy the EU, which fears a continued stalemate will not just lead to further cross-border strife but cede more space to Russia, China, and Turkey at the heart of Europe. Serb militants linked to Radoicic clashed with Kosovo police at the border last September, upsetting an EU-mediated normalisation deal from that February, and their path to EU membership.
FOR BUSINESS. The past month has otherwise seen progress from the West's perspective. Brussels and Belgrade agreed a border patrol deal. Serbia did not cave into Russian demands its weapons not go to Ukraine. Rio Tinto is set to launch a long-delayed lithium mine. Yet ethnic tensions could undo such political and commercial gains. The worst of ultranationalism was seen at the Euro 2024 football tournament, including a brawl allegedly involving Vucic’s son.
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TURKEY. IRAQ. Kurdling
Regional elections could bring allies to blows.
Iraq's Kurdistan set 20 October for long-delayed elections Wednesday. Turkey set up checkpoints amid a new operation inside the autonomous region. Bashar al-Assad said Damascus was open to "all initiatives" to mend ties with Ankara.
INTELLIGENCE. Kurdistan is not the only ethnic-Kurdish territory holding polls. The self-governing enclave of Rojava in northeast Syria is due to vote in local elections in August, having postponed these from 30 May and then 11 June amid threats from Turkey. Ankara is battling Kurdish separatists in both regions. But whereas it cooperates with Iraq’s Kurdish authorities, it considers the Syria-based Kurds terrorists. The problem is they’re backed by the US.
FOR BUSINESS. As members of NATO, the US and Turkey have ample mechanisms to deconflict, but Rojava’s army, the Syrian Democratic Forces, works alongside embedded US special forces (there to fight Islamic State and, potentially, the Russia and Iran-backed authorities in Damascus). Any causalities risk a diplomatic crisis. A similar dynamic exists in Iraq, where exiled Kurdish separatists from Turkey have allegedly been used in the war against IS.
RUSSIA. IRAN. The next big thing
Moscow hints at another pariah partnership.
Russia's foreign ministry said Wednesday it was working on a "big treaty" with Iran. Gazprom signed a memorandum with Tehran on gas supply. Kyiv claimed it had hit a drone facility in Krasnodar housing Iranian instructors, killing three.
INTELLIGENCE. Iran is already working closely with Russia in Ukraine – likely more than even North Korea, which is said to be readying for a deployment of army engineers. But connections between the countries are largely superficial, and there are many areas on which they disagree, including in Sudan and likely Yemen. A war between Hezbollah and Israel would create further complications. The results of Iran’s elections on Friday will impact the depth of any deal.
FOR BUSINESS. Moscow-Tehran ties are convenient but need economic integration to last beyond the war, including to keep Russia’s North-South transit corridor via Azerbaijan and to India on track. Selling gas to a gas-rich country may seem an unlikely ploy, but pipeline connectivity could augur a wider network into the subcontinent. Gazprom’s CEO was in Tehran to sign the deal. He visited in May while other top CEOs accompanied Vladimir Putin to Beijing.