Bop till you drop
Iran, Ukraine, Russia, North Korea, China, Indonesia, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Strikes resume, as does talk of a deal.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow releases a Marine as Kyiv sets terms.
NORTH KOREA. Kim is shaping politics far beyond his fief.
CHINA. INDONESIA. Exercises off Taiwan mark an ominous turn.
UNITED STATES. Playing to the extremes helps the mainstream.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.
IRAN. Serve no purpose
Strikes resume, as does talk of a deal.
The US hit a ship in the Gulf of Oman while the Houthis killed four in a strike in the Red Sea, sending crude futures higher. Donald Trump suggested he would “bop along" but Pakistan's defence minister said he saw "some sort of arrangement".
INTELLIGENCE. The attacks are not back at tit-for-tat, but there is a pattern of serve-and-volley. The question is how long either can play before being exhausted. Iran continues to show escalation dominance, while Trump is on the defence at home. This is no longer just in terms of expending finite oil and munition stocks, but a decision to leave Air Force One by hiding in a catering truck amid fears Iran might bomb the jet as it left July’s NATO summit in Ankara.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s catering truck affair, which makes the call to use the old, unloved Air Force One as a decoy even dodgier (let alone that Marco Rubio and the White House Press Corps were all on board), could in time be seen as Trump’s campaign killer. Equal parts comical and callous, it also sums up his approach to Iran. As wavering voters count the cost of groceries, Democrats may have been gifted a midterms attack line that would make the IRGC proud.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Prisoner's dilemma
Moscow releases a Marine as Kyiv sets terms.
Russia released a former US Marine after four years in custody following discussions between Trump and Vladimir Putin. Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had given US negotiators a plan to end the war with Russia. Lethal attacks continued.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump is no longer promising a quick resolution to the war, but a deal