Boring but important
Iran, the UK, the US, Brazil, and Myanmar.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. In a war where nothing happens, everything happens.
BRITAIN. Labour’s race gets harder in Makerfield.
UNITED STATES. With Bill Pulte, another congressional showdown looms.
BRAZIL. The US leans toward Bolsonaro while harming his campaign.
MYANMAR. Min Aung Hlaing plugs back into the region.
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IRAN. You'll never Tyre of this
In a war where nothing happens, everything happens.
CENTCOM denied the 5th Fleet's headquarters had been struck after Iranian missiles were launched at US bases across the Gulf. Marco Rubio said he was optimistic on talks. Israel warned of new strikes despite its ostensible ceasefire.
INTELLIGENCE. The US paints a picture of calm, from Lebanon to Hormuz. Donald Trump has even said he’s “getting bored”. Yet more evacuations are underway in Tyre, and beyond Iran’s attacks on Bahrain, the US continues to strike vessels in a blockade it days ago said it would lift. Oil futures are higher for a second session, but markets overall are still buying the official view, blind to a supply crunch that, like bankruptcy, may happen gradually, then suddenly.
FOR BUSINESS. Stocks are at or near record highs, proving the claim “nothing ever happens”. Yet price is a consensus of what everyone thinks everyone is thinking. And when the narrative changes, the wall of passive trading beta could dramatically flip. Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon said yesterday that “there’s more greed than there is fear”. The truism may one day be likened to the 2007 quip by Citi’s Chuck Prince that “when the music plays, you gotta dance.”
BRITAIN. Burnham effigy
Labour's race gets harder in Makerfield.
Keir Starmer demanded answers as police footage showed a dying teenager being handcuffed after his alleged murderer said he'd been "racist". Niger Farage called for "pure, cold rage". Andy Burnham walked back plans for an early election.
INTELLIGENCE. Burnham, Manchester’s left-wing mayor, is seen as Labour’s last