Britain: From Keir to eternity

Also: Brazil, the EU, China, Myanmar, and the Alliance of Sahel States.

An Empire on Which the Sun Never Sets, cover of a booklet from the Seamen's Hospital for the Benefit of Sick Seamen of all Nations, early 1900s, Wellcome Collection, London.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily global intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

BRITAIN. From Keir to eternity

Labour seems indomitable, if it can stay humble.

Keir Starmer's Labour Party was on track to more than double its seats to a 63% majority in early counting Friday morning, more than halving the Conservatives' tally and reducing that of the Scottish National Party by three-quarters.

INTELLIGENCE. Starmer's win was never in doubt, but the scale, while forecast, is still striking. That said, Boris Johnson’s 2019 victory was perhaps almost as noteworthy. Labour’s margin of victory is partly a result of it taking back historically red seats. More dramatic has been the recovery of the Liberal Democrats and the destruction of the SNP. Reform UK’s seat gain, while numerically impressive as it came from nothing, appears far less than anticipated.

FOR BUSINESS. If early lessons can be drawn by the Tory and SNP routings, it’s that voters are sick of lies, on Brexit and Scottish independence, as much as they are sick of incumbents (14 years for the Conservatives in Westminster; 17 for the SNP in Holyrood – which goes to elections before May 2026). Luckily, Starmer appears more disposed to under-promising than any of his five predecessors. His cautious and incremental style will be what voters most want.

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BRAZIL. Lula’s lemons

The president opts for vendettas over reforms.

Former president Jair Bolsonaro was indicted Thursday on misappropriating state gifts. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva cancelled a visit to Santa Catrina because Argentina's Javier Milei was scheduled to be there at the same time.

INTELLIGENCE. Lula won a narrow victory in 2022 and initially pledged to govern in a consensual manner – partly due to the opposition’s strength in Congress. Yet after