Burning time
Iran, NATO, China, Taiwan, the Sahel, and Cuba.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. More ships are hit as reserves keep dropping.
NATO. Russia probes for transatlantic disunity.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Pacific provocations rattle sabres and nerves.
THE SAHEL. The resource curse exacerbates a belt of conflict.
CUBA. After another blackout, the regime starts to crack.
Try the full Geopolitical Dispatch — free for a month
Throughout July, free subscribers can activate a full 30-day trial of Geopolitical Dispatch, including the complete Daily Dispatch, Week Signals, our Private Monthly Roundtables and Quarterly Outlook Briefing.
IRAN. Tanks for nothing
More ships are hit as reserves keep dropping.
At least two tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz’s Omani channel as Washington reported a further 6.2-million-barrel fall in strategic reserves. Donald Trump said the US would either reach a deal with Iran or it would “finish the job.”
INTELLIGENCE. Assuming Tehran was behind the attacks – during Khamenei’s multi-day funeral, with effigies of Trump burning amid a millions-strong crowd – it will either judge it can survive Washington’s blowback, or there’ll be no blowback at all. Either way, Iran sees the US as over a barrel, with few good options for escalation or delay. Another round of talks is scheduled for 11 July, by which time there will have been further reports on inventory drawdowns.
FOR BUSINESS. The current deal is probably as good as it gets for Iran. It is unlikely to get more by way of negotiation. But stalling tactics will more likely ensure its implementation than will any rush to conclusion. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at 319.5 million barrels, its lowest level since April 1983. Ongoing releases are keeping oil prices low, but conversely, they are setting things up for a potential spike should Hormuz flows once again cease.
NATO. Red card to a bull
Russia probes for transatlantic disunity.
Trump left for the NATO summit in Ankara after further strikes on Kyiv killed at least 28. Trump said a resolution on the war was “getting closer” but continued to troll European allies. Belgium defeated the US in the World Cup by four to one.
INTELLIGENCE. European leaders may struggle to contain their schadenfreude as