By rook or by crook

Ukraine, Russia, the US, Haiti, Central America, and Malaysia.

The Chess Players, Honoré Daumier, c. 1863-7, oil on wood, Petit Palais, Paris.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The Anchorage summit could be a game of two halves.

• UNITED STATES. Capitalism turns into corporatism.

• HAITI. Blackwater’s founder plays kingmaker.

• CENTRAL AMERICA. The region treats Trump with diffidence and defiance.

• MALAYSIA. The 1MDB scandal won’t easily disappear.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Chess-thumping

The Anchorage summit could be a game of two halves.

Donald Trump likened his meeting with Vladimir Putin, scheduled for 11am Friday, as a "chess game" to set up talks where he, Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky would "divvy things up." Putin suggested a deal could be made on arms control.

INTELLIGENCE. Both leaders go into the summit projecting confidence. There's every chance they'll leave that way, with any failure to get to round two able to be blamed on Zelensky. For both, the symbolism of meeting is the purpose. A deal would be a bonus, but is not essential. Ukraine, as ever, has the most to lose. Zelensky has indicated a referendum would be needed to relinquish territory. If such a vote is held, there’d likely also be a presidential election.

FOR BUSINESS. A bad deal could divide Europe and weaken NATO, but Trump may see allegations of being Putin’s stooge as the bigger risk. His doubling down on “Russiagate” hoax claims in recent days should be seen as much as summit insurance as an attempt to deflect attention from Jeffrey Epstein and other controversies. No deal could see higher tariffs on India, plus new sanctions elsewhere, but higher oil prices may limit how far Trump is willing to go.

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UNITED STATES. Official business

State capitalism turns into state corporatism.

Intel shares rose after Bloomberg said the White House was eyeing a stake in the chipmaker. Goldman Sachs reiterated its view on tariffs after Donald Trump attacked its chief economist. Scott Bessent said the Treasury may buy Bitcoin.

INTELLIGENCE. After the Pentagon's purchase of a stake in miner MP Materials, the