Calling the bluffs
Iran, the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean, Ukraine, Russia, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Netanyahu defies Trump with an attack on Tehran.
RED SEA. A Bab-el-Mandeb blockade becomes more plausible.
INDIAN OCEAN. A plan for Washington to buy the Chagos is floated.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. His letter ignored, Zelensky seeks new keys to the Kremlin.
UNITED STATES. Tech stocks brace amid pleas for a rate cut.
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IRAN. Shots fired
Netanyahu defies Trump with an attack on Tehran.
Israel struck targets across Iran early Monday after Iran sent missiles into Northern Israel in retaliation for an earlier strike on Beirut. Prior to Israel’s reprisals, Donald Trump said that Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to not retaliate.
INTELLIGENCE. Having told the Financial Times and others just hours before that “I call the shots” and Netanyahu “won’t have any choice” but to accept a deal allegedly still being worked on, Israel’s moves are humiliating for the president. Comments by Marco Rubio that “only stupid countries don’t shoot back when you’re shot at” emphasise the sense that Trump has lost control. As the war passes its 100th day, the US is increasingly fighting on two fronts.
FOR BUSINESS. Oil futures rose 4% in choppy trade. Reports Iran has again struck US bases in Saudi Arabia are unconfirmed. The Strait of Hormuz is no closer to opening. But even if Trump is livid with Netanyahu, he is unlikely to just pack up and leave, as some traders suspect. Having come this far, Trump will be minded to escalate. Not doing so would confirm Iran’s escalation dominance. Not backing Israel, even if popular, could destroy US credibility.
RED SEA. Yemen at work
A Bab-el-Mandeb blockade becomes more plausible.
The Houthis launched missiles into Tel Aviv Monday after earlier praising Iran’s “heroic military operation” and pledging solidarity with Hezbollah. A senior adviser to Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated warnings to block the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
INTELLIGENCE. The Houthis have blocked the Bab-el-Mandeb before. And though