Hello from Sydney,
Yesterday, Michael and I hosted our latest private roundtable with paid subscribers, looking at some of the geopolitical developments we think matter most as we head into the second half of September.
We started with Iran and discussed whether Tehran is trying to outlast the Trump administration politically, what nearly $100 oil and increasingly stretched fuel reserves could mean as the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter, and why the Red Sea may remain unstable even if the immediate crisis around Hormuz eventually eases.
From there, we turned to Ukraine and Russia — including the latest flurry of American shuttle diplomacy in Moscow and Kyiv, the unusual visit by the CIA Director to Russia — the first reported visit since 2021 — and whether any of it materially changes a war that still, for all intents and purposes, looks like a long contest of attrition.
We also looked at the sharp rise of the populist right across Europe, particularly the AfD’s latest gains in Germany and what they might — and might not — tell us about the political direction of Germany, France and Europe more broadly.
Finally, we spent some time on the changing balance of power in the Middle East. More specifically, we discussed the increasingly tense and structural rivalry between Israel and Turkey, the new defence relationships forming around them, and how the US, China and Russia are responding to these emerging configurations.
The recording and full transcript are below for paid subscribers.
If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can upgrade to access the full discussion, as well as every Daily Dispatch and Week Signals essay and invitations to our monthly private roundtables.
Best wishes,
Damien
