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Ceasefire, ceasewater
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Ceasefire, ceasewater

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Chagos Islands, Iran, and the US.

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Michael Feller
May 23, 2025
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Ceasefire, ceasewater
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A Sinner’s Plea to God, folio from the Kulliyat (Collected Works) of Sa’di, ascribed to Hiranand, c. 1604, opaque watercolour, ink and gold on paper, Aga Khan Museum, Toronto.

The five things you need to know today:

  • INDIA. PAKISTAN. Riverine threats flow despite a truce.

  • BANGLADESH. Cracks appear in the caretaker government.

  • INDIAN OCEAN. The deal on Diego Garcia is done.

  • IRAN. The US tells Israel not to interrupt.

  • UNITED STATES. Trump's migration policy begins to resemble his trade policy.

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INDIA. PAKISTAN. Hydration bomb

A declaration on water threatens the survival of a truce.

Pakistan would not get water from India, Narendra Modi said Thursday, echoing threats made after last month's Kashmir attacks. Pakistan's government said it wanted to talk. The army said if you block our water, we’ll choke your breath.”

INTELLIGENCE. A ceasefire is holding, but a war of words has revived since Islamabad blamed Delhi for a separate incident in Balochistan. The threats lack weight – blocking rivers need dams, and dams need years – but they have raised the temperature as Pakistani farmers await next month's monsoon. They also feed rising religious tensions on both sides. A Muslim professor was jailed in Haryana Sunday, after tweeting concerns about India’s lack of diversity.

FOR BUSINESS. India and Pakistan barely trade, but several Turkish firms have endured Indian boycotts and disruptions since Ankara reiterated verbal assurances to Islamabad. One, ground handler Celebi Aviation, had its airport clearance revoked last week. Celebi has taken the matter to court, but Delhi argues the move is justified on national security grounds. Air India has meanwhile sought to have a rival’s leasing deal with Turkish Airlines annulled.

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BANGLADESH. Bad interim

Cracks appear in the caretaker government.

De facto leader Muhammad Yunus threatened to quit, Indian media said Friday, amid concerns on the feasibility of new elections and the army taking control. Human Rights Watch slammed Yunus's ban on the former ruling Awami League.

INTELLIGENCE. Nobel laureate Yunus, 84, was brought back from exile to head an interim government after the

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