Chad: N'Domino effect
Also: the DRC, Haiti, the US, and South Korea.
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CHAD. N'Domino effect
Rumours of a coup attempt in N'Djamena.
Gunfire broke out in Chad's capital Wednesday following an attack on the headquarters of the National Security Agency. Chad's electoral commission said Tuesday elections would be held in May, ending three years of military rule.
INTELLIGENCE. The fighting appears to be between members of the Deby clan. Opposition leader Yaya Dillo, a nephew of President Mahamat Deby (himself the son of slain ex-president Idriss Deby), is reportedly dead. Promises of an election to end three years of military rule appear in doubt. The announcement of an election came as a surprise. Mahamat’s grip on Chad is being pressed by rebels in the north and south, as well as Sudan's civil war to the east.
FOR BUSINESS. Chad’s instability could threaten the West’s remaining toehold in the Sahel and give Russia another ally in the region. N'Djamena had already been leaning towards Moscow and Deby visited Vladimir Putin last month. Russia is currently hosting Mali's foreign minister and recently sent military intelligence chief Andrei Averianov on a tour of several of Chad's neighbours. Russian mercenaries have been supporting Sudan’s rebel Rapid Support Forces.
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DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. Withdrawal symptoms
Conflict spreads as the UN departs.
UN peacekeepers transferred a base to Congo's national police Wednesday in the first step of a year-long withdrawal. Burundi detained soldiers who had refused to deploy to Congo in a battle against the Rwanda-backed M23 militia.
INTELLIGENCE. The UN’s deployment was controversial and, in many respects, ineffective, but the vacuum will likely be worse. A variety of forces are seeking to fill it, including many of the regional states that fought in Congo’s previous civil wars, where looting was as much an objective as military predominance. The conflict is also spilling into other countries. Burundi on Monday claimed another Rwanda-backed group killed nine people near its border with the DRC.
FOR BUSINESS. South Africa is another actor in the conflict, though its presence has been complicated by elections set for May. After saying it would deploy 2,900 troops, Pretoria came under attack from the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters, which is rising in the polls. The far-left EFF, rather than the mostly white Democratic Alliance, is expected to be kingmaker after the elections, the first since Apartheid where the ruling ANC could lose its majority.
HAITI. While the sun shines
Time runs out for Port-au-Prince (and Washington).
Caribbean leaders released a statement Wednesday noting Haiti's prime minister had agreed to hold elections by mid-2025. Prime Minister Ariel Henry left the regional meeting for Kenya, where a planned deployment has been delayed.
INTELLIGENCE. Kenya was due to send police to Haiti as part of a UN-supported mission, but court injunctions, political opposition and a deteriorating situation in nearby Somalia has delayed their departure. Henry, who came to power in the wake of President Jovenel Moise’s assassination, has been under pressure to return Haiti to democracy and clamp down on the gangs who control much of the country. The UN is seeking $674 million for Haiti.
FOR BUSINESS. Regional powers, from the US to Brazil, have offered thoughts and prayers but are unwilling to put boots on the ground. Benin, in West Africa, may fill Kenya’s shoes, but without concerted effort from Washington it’s not hard to imagine an external player, like Beijing or Moscow, arriving on the scene. Haiti is one of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies. Russia has sought to forge closer ties with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua in recent weeks.
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UNITED STATES. The writing on the wall
Border security becomes the top election issue, for now.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump prepared to visit Texas border cities Brownsville and Eagle Pass on Thursday. Immigration led the list of top voter concerns in a Gallup poll Tuesday, at 28%, up from 20% in January, the highest level since 2019.
INTELLIGENCE. With illegal immigration now outpolling government dysfunction, Trump’s focus on pursuing a hardline border approach in the House is paying off. Yet, with some Arizona Republicans considering a shoot-to-kill law for migrant trespassers, and New York mulling an end to its sanctuary city policy, there's a chance an increasingly febrile debate could ultimately backfire on the GOP. Moderates and third-party candidates are eyeing an opportunity.
FOR BUSINESS. The election will be won in the suburbs, not the border. Biden and Trump remain even in most polls. Migration concerns give a tailwind to Trump, but November is far away. Border crossings, while still high, fell 50% in January. The impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is expected to go nowhere. Robert F Kennedy is set to appear on Arizona's ballot. Centrist group No Labels has shown interest in Nikki Haley.
SOUTH KOREA. What the doctor ordered
Seoul’s bitter medicine is starting to show results.
Seoul said Wednesday it would send military doctors to hospitals amid a mass strike. Data showed South Korea's birth rate hit a record low last year. President Yoon Suk-Yeol’s approval rating rose to 40% for the first time in eight months.
INTELLIGENCE. Amid controversies over corporate fraud, the First Lady's handbag, North Korean provocations, and warming ties with the perennially unpopular Japan, it would appear Yoon is having a bad time. Yet his rising numbers reflect a series of small victories over Seoul’s calcified systems and polarised politics. Bold reforms can be difficult to pursue. South Korean leaders have a habit of being arrested or killed. Yet Yoon is shaping up to be a historic leader.
FOR BUSINESS. A true verdict on Yoon will be made on 10 April, when general elections are held (presidential polls aren't due until 2027). Yoon's People Power party is leading in constituency polls for the first time and is first on a proportional basis. The National Assembly is currently led by the opposition, whose leader was stabbed in the neck last month. South Korea’s economy is slowing, but unlike Japan – and many of its peers – it’s not in recession.