Chicken and hawks
Saudi Arabia, Israel, the US, Ukraine, Russia, the UK, the Caribbean, and markets.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
SAUDI ARABIA. ISRAEL. Trump blinks on F-35s for Riyadh.
UNITED STATES. A search for truth uncovers a web of dishonour.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin’s envoy hints at a deal as Zelensky’s aide goes dark.
BRITAIN. THE CARIBBEAN. Historic reparations could set a bad precedent.
MARKETS. The crypto crash exposes murky linkages.
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SAUDI ARABIA. ISRAEL. Highflyers
Trump blinks on F-35s for Riyadh.
The White House announced the sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, during the visit of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Israel confirmed it opposed the sale. MBS said Israeli normalisation would depend on Palestinian statehood.
INTELLIGENCE. Besides some civil nuclear, investment and AI deals, the announcements were largely in Riyadh’s favour. Even Trump, not MBS, took the heat on the 2018 death of Jamal Khashoggi. But Israel, which wants to retain its (US-legislated) qualitative military edge, may be placated that similar F-35 offers to Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE have gone nowhere, and regional attention seems to have shifted to the Russian Su-57’s debut at the Dubai airshow.
FOR BUSINESS. Saudi F-35s are a big deal, especially without the US demanding a quid pro quo on Israel, but the deal may stall once Trump leaves the White House. MBS will need to deepen ties with the Democrats to ensure his purchase remains on track. Yet Democrats seem more concerned with wrongfooting Steve Witkoff and other Trump associates on Gulf investments. Joe Biden’s pledge to make MBS a “pariah” has not been repudiated by party seniors.
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UNITED STATES. Low liars
A search for truth uncovers a web of dishonour.
The Senate unanimously approved a bill to release all files on Jeffrey Epstein late Tuesday after a 427-1 vote in the House. John Thune and Mike Johnson gave conflicting reports on GOP amendments sought to protect “whistleblowers”.
INTELLIGENCE. Thune drove through the bill with a speed that surprised many.