China: Grouchy dragon, hiding tiger

Also: Myanmar, France, Ukraine, Russia, and Chile.

Immortal Warrior Riding Tiger, Xu Bei Hong, early 20th century, ink and colour on paper, private collection.

The five things you need to know today:

• CHINA. What a defence purge rumour says about Xi’s balancing act.

• MYANMAR. An ICC warrant is the least of Min Aung Hlaing's worries.

• FRANCE. Michel Barnier’s minority government looks close to collapse.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump’s special envoy will have his work cut out.

• CHILE. Who is stalking Gabriel Boric?

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk. Based on the US Presidential Daily Brief, it’s not news, it’s intelligence.

CHINA. Grouchy dragon, hiding tiger

What a defence purge rumour says about Xi’s balancing act.

Beijing denied Wednesday Defence Minister Dong Jun was under investigation after the Financial Times said he had been caught in Xi Jinping's "tigers and flies" anti-corruption probe. Three Americans were released in a prisoner swap.

INTELLIGENCE. Dong last week declined to meet his US counterpart at a regional forum. It was seen as a return to Beijing’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy, a practice of Dong’s purged predecessors prior to a shift in Xi Jinping’s approach, due in part to China’s economic slowdown and need to win back friends and influence people. The event may be unrelated to new graft allegations, which have in any case been denied, but there’s a sense of wobbles at the top.

FOR BUSINESS. As he struggles to control the economic narrative,Xi is employing carrots and sticks with cadres and external adversaries alike. As Trump prepares to return, Xi will want to have fewer reasons for a difficult start but will still want new concessions to barter. The release of three prisoners, whom the US says were wrongfully detained, is but a minor gesture to outgoing president Joe Biden (as was the US’s subsequent rerating of China’s travel advice).

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MYANMAR. Joining the club

An ICC warrant is the least of Min Aung Hlaing's worries.

International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan sought a warrant Wednesday for Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing. France suggested it would ignore an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu considering Israel was not party to the ICC.

INTELLIGENCE. Min Aung Hlaing has been charged with crimes against humanity over the 2017 ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya minority. But