Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

China plates

China, the US, the Philippines, Iran, the DRC, and AI.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Sep 29, 2026
∙ Paid
The bull in the China shop, Louis Dalrymple, illustration from Puck (43:1096), 9 March 1898, Library of Congress, Washington DC.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • CHINA. UNITED STATES. The strategic stalemate looks fragile.

  • CHINA. PHILIPPINES. A maritime standoff deepens.

  • IRAN. Indirect talks become a new front in the war.

  • DR CONGO. Ebola spreads as peace efforts stall.

  • ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.


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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Handled without care

The strategic stalemate looks fragile.

Beijing and Washington said they would cut tariffs on $30 billion of goods each as Donald Trump denied offering to sell China weapons. Taiwan said it was in “continuous” talks with the US on arms and hadn’t been told of any policy changes.

INTELLIGENCE. When Trump’s ambassador to China told Fox News the president had offered to sell Xi Jinping arms, it was unlikely a slip of the tongue. Without changing legislation that mandates support for Taiwan and bans weapons to China, the White House instead seems to be crab-walking a new kind of narrative in the hope of getting more from Beijing. Yet by trading one form of strategic ambiguity for another, Trump has just shown how out of his depth he is.

FOR BUSINESS. For all his host’s red-carpet preening, Xi left Washington without giving much away. Duties remain on soybeans. Rare earths are still subject to sudden embargo. Coal was on China’s list of tariff cuts, but oil and LNG weren’t. A thin deal for both sides makes for a bruised reed on which to build foundations. And whether the weapons sale claim was an error of judgment by Trump or his ambassador, Xi will now see the US as fundamentally unserious.


CHINA. PHILIPPINES. A shoal ‘nother story

A maritime standoff deepens.

The US and Chinese embassies in Manila released duelling statements on the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines attempted to resupply a grounded World War II ship that serves as one of its nine South China Sea outposts.

INTELLIGENCE. The BRP Sierra Madre is a Mad Max garrison compared to China’s

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